Abstract/Description
The structural characteristics of the Ethiopian economy make it particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, prompting the government to explore a range of adaptation and mitigation strategies. Land use shifts and livelihood diversification—through semi-intensive livestock systems, afforestation and tree crop development, and the pursuit of grain self-sufficiency—have been identified in policy documents as viable responses. However, the effectiveness of these strategies in achieving their intended objectives has not yet been assessed ex-ante. This study evaluates the individual and combined impacts of three key interventions: (i) shifting from traditional grain cultivation to tree crops and semi-intensive livestock farming in the degraded, drought-prone highlands; (ii) expanding commercial grain production in the moisture-reliable lowlands; and (iii) partially reallocating rural labor from agriculture to non-farm activities. The analysis examines a range of economic, social, and environmental outcome indicators and reveals significant spatial and distributional effects, with important trade-offs across sectors. Taken together, the policy shifts accelerate overall GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points and agricultural GDP by 0.3 percentage points, while also contributing to notable reductions in poverty and improvements in diet quality, particularly in rural areas. Moreover, the findings highlight the potential of these strategies to support Ethiopia’s climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives by enhancing agricultural output per unit of greenhouse gas emissions and water use. Read more>>