Publications

Dairy value chains during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ethiopia: Evidence from cascading value chain surveys before and during the pandemic

We combine in-person survey data collected in February 2018 with phone survey data collected in June and September 2021 to study how dairy value chains in Ethiopia have coped with the COVID-19 pandemic. Focusing on the major dairy value chain connecting farmers in North and West Shewa as well as peri-urban and urban producers in and around Addis Ababa to consumers in Addis Ababa, we applied a cascading survey approach in which we collected data at all levels of the value chain: dairy farmers, rural wholesalers, and urban retailers.

Expanding social protection coverage with humanitarian aid: Lessons on targeting and transfer values from Ethiopia

While social protection programs have multiplied over the last two decades across sub-Saharan Africa, these co-exist alongside humanitarian assistance in many places, calling for better integration of assistance delivered through the two channels. Progress on this front is hampered by limited evidence of whether and how these historically siloed sectors can work together. Using quantitative and qualitative data from districts covered by Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) and where humanitarian food assistance (HFA) was delivered, we assess differences in targeting and transfer values. We find that PSNP and HFA were targeted to households with different characteristics. PSNP transfers did, on average, reach those households that were chronically food insecure. HFA, while delivered through PSNP systems, was targeted to households that were acutely vulnerable. These are promising findings as they suggest that social protection systems are able to effectively deliver a continuum of support in response to different types of vulnerability and risk. On transfer values, we find that the value of PSNP transfers is greater than those for HFA. One reason for this may be due to social pressure on local officials to distribute support more widely across a drought- affected population when faced with acute needs.

The impact of Ethiopia's direct seed marketing approach on smallholders' access to seeds, productivity, and commercialization

Several factors contribute to the low level of improved variety use in Ethiopia. Among those, on the supply side, is the limited availability of seed in the volumes, quality, and timeliness required by farmers, which is partly a result of limited public and private investment in the sector. Beginning in 2011, the Government of Ethiopia introduced a novel experiment-the Direct Seed Marketing (DSM) approach-to reduce some of the centralized, state-run attributes of the country’s seed market and rationalize the use of public resources. DSM was designed to incentivize private and public seed producers to sell seed directly to farmers rather than through the state apparatus. This study is the first quantitative evaluation of DSM’s impact on indicators of a healthy seed system: access to quality seeds, on-farm productivity, and market participation of smallholders. Using a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach, the study finds that DSM led to a 26 percent increase in maize yields and a 5 percent increase in the share of maize harvest sold. DSM also led to improvements in seed availability for all three of Ethiopia’s major cereals: maize, wheat, and teff. However, DSM’s effects on yields and share of harvest sold are not statistically significant for wheat and teff. These crop-specific differences in performance are likely explainable by biological differences between hybrid maize and openly pollinated varieties of wheat and teff that incentivize private sector participation in maize seed markets over wheat and teff seed markets. These differences demand different policies and perhaps even institutional approaches to accelerating adoption between hybrids and OPVs.

Urban proximity, access to value chains, and dairy productivity in Ethiopia

This article analyzes how urban proximity introduces spatial heterogeneity in farm productivity within the high-value dairy sector in one of the poorest countries in Africa, Ethiopia. We look at how urban proximity—measured as travel time—affects the decisions and productivity of milk farmers located in rural production zones serving fresh milk to the capital Addis Ababa. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find that with each additional hour of travel time, farmers’ milk productivity per cow is reduced, on average, by almost 1 L per day or by 26%. When trying to disentangle the underlying mechanisms (and controlling for transaction costs), we find that farmers’ inclusion in “modern” value chains and their access to commercial milk buyers and milk processing companies drive the urban proximity effect. As only a limited number of farmers have access to such value chains in developing countries, measures to make dairy value chains more inclusive to remote—often poorer—farmers can, therefore, have important benefits for them, for the performance of the dairy sector in Ethiopia, and for the process of agricultural transformation as a whole.

Prices of vegetables and fruits in Ethiopia: Trends and implications for consumption and nutrition

We study price behavior of vegetables and fruits in Ethiopia over the 15 year period from 2005 to 2019 based on large-scale retail and producer price datasets. This is an important topic given the importance of prices for consumption decisions for these nutritious crops. A number of notable findings come from the analysis. First, prices are rapidly increasing both in real terms and when compared to cereals. At the end of the study period in 2019, vegetables and fruits in real terms were significantly more expensive than 15 years earlier. Especially green leafy vegetables show a significant price rise, likely because few high-yielding varieties of these vegetables have been made available and adopted by producers. Second, part of the rise in prices is explained by increased marketing margins. To understand what accounts for these increases in the marketing margins for fruits and vegetables requires more research, as they contrast with stable or declining margins seen for other food crops over the study period. Third, we see significant seasonality in vegetable prices that is mostly driven by supply factors, but also by demand shifts due to increased demand in fasting periods. Fruit prices do not show such high seasonal variation, however. Fourth, there is significant spatial price variation in the country – vegetable prices are 60 percent more expensive in lowland regions than in the Amhara region, where vegetables are cheapest. Fruit prices in the lowlands are double the prices in the major producing area, the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' (SNNP) region.

Graduation after ten years of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme: Surviving but still not thriving

Many social protection programmes aspire to graduate poor people out of poverty. While some successfully ensure food security and survival for the poorest, few have moved large numbers of people sustainably out of poverty and into productive livelihood opportunities.This article aims to understand better the challenges to sustainable graduation out of poverty, and why graduation has been so difficult to achieve in many social protection programmes.We define graduation and identify primary objectives related to food security and consumption and secondary objectives for asset accumulation. We then apply this thinking to the case of the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) in Ethiopia, drawing on evaluation spanning the first 10 years of the programme.The programme has been successful on some fronts—such as saving lives, reducing distress sales and providing community‐level services—while on others, such as household asset building and livestock accumulation, it has failed to deliver. Given this, we ask why the programme has underperformed in building household assets, and further, why the PSNP programme proceeded to prematurely graduate so many households despite the lack of evidence on livelihood strengthening.It seems that the PSNP was unable to lift most households out of poverty, owing to lack of capacity to design and implement measures to raise incomes and to lack of opportunities to do so. Many households, however, were graduated out of PSNP, apparently because field staff had quotas to fulfil, whether or not the households had progressed out of poverty.The PSNP shows how a programme can succeed in its primary objective of alleviating deep poverty and preventing people from becoming destitute. But it also shows that to reach the more ambitious target of graduating households out of poverty, more funds and administrative capacity are needed to generate additional household economic activity. Investments in complementary rural services are needed as well.

Food prices and marketing margins during the COVID‐19 pandemic: Evidence from vegetable value chains in Ethiopia

It is widely feared that the shock of the COVID‐19 pandemic will lead to a significant worsening of the food security situation in low and middle‐income countries. One reason for this is the disruption of food marketing systems and subsequent changes in farm and consumer prices. Based on primary data in Ethiopia collected just before the start and a few months into the pandemic, we assess changes in farm and consumer prices of four major vegetables and the contribution of different segments of the rural‐urban value chain in urban retail price formation. We find large, but heterogeneous, price changes for different vegetables with relatively larger changes seen at the farm level, compared to the consumer level, leading to winners and losers among local vegetable farmers due to pandemic‐related trade disruptions. We further that despite substantial hurdles in domestic trade reported by most value chain agents, increases in marketing—and especially transportation—costs have not been the major contributor to overall changes in retail prices. Marketing margins even declined for half of the vegetables studied. The relatively small changes in marketing margins overall indicate the resilience of these domestic value chains during the pandemic in Ethiopia.

Beneficiary views on cash and in-kind payments: Evidence from Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme

Economists often default to the assumption that cash is always preferable to an in-kind transfer. Do beneficiaries feel the same way? This paper addresses this issue using longitudinal household data from Ethiopia, where a large-scale social safety net intervention (PSNP) operates. Even though most payments are made in cash, and even though the (temporal) transaction costs associated with food payments are higher than payments received as cash, most beneficiaries stated that they prefer their payments only or partly in food. Higher food prices induce shifts in stated preferences toward in-kind transfers. More food-secure households, those closer to food markets and to financial services are more likely to prefer cash. Though shifts occur, the stated preference for food is dominant: In no year do more than 17 percent of households prefer only cash. There is suggestive evidence that stated preferences for food are also driven by self-control concerns.

Efficiency and profits of emerging medium-scale farms in Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia’s commercial horticultural sector

We study production practices of larger and more capital-intensive farmers (“horti-preneurs”) in horticultural commercial clusters in the central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Attracted by profitable vegetable markets, more educated farmers rent in land for vegetable production from a large number of smallholders to meet rapidly growing urban vegetable demand. We find that these hortipreneurs obtain more than double the profit per unit of land compared to smallholders. Compared to smallholders, horti-preneurs grow different vegetables – particularly those that require more upfront investments – and in the case that they grow the same crops as smallholders, we find that they use significantly more inputs, such as fertilizer, agro-chemicals, and labor; have higher production costs; and obtain better yields. Moreover, they are also more efficient and able to produce better quality vegetables and obtain better prices. This increasing emergence of more efficient medium-scale farmers in supplying local urban markets challenges the traditional smallholder model in Africa, at least for horticulture.

The impact of Ethiopia’s direct seed marketing approach on smallholders’ access to seeds, productivity, and commercialization

Several factors contribute to the low level of improved variety use in Ethiopia. Among those, on the supply side, is the limited availability of seed in the volumes, quality, and timeliness required by farmers, which is partly a result of limited public and private investment in the sector. Beginning in 2011, the Government of Ethiopia introduced a novel experiment-the Direct Seed Marketing (DSM) approach-to reduce some of the centralized, state-run attributes of the country’s seed market and rationalize the use of public resources. DSM was designed to incentivize private and public seed producers to sell seed directly to farmers rather than through the state apparatus. This study is the first quantitative evaluation of DSM’s impact on indicators of a healthy seed system: access to quality seeds, on-farm productivity, and market participation of smallholders. Using a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach, the study finds that DSM led to a 26 percent increase in maize yields and a 5 percent increase in the share of maize harvest sold. DSM also led to improvements in seed availability for all three of Ethiopia’s major cereals: maize, wheat, and teff. However, DSM’s effects on yields and share of harvest sold are not statistically significant for wheat and teff. These crop-specific differences in performance are likely explainable by biological differences between hybrid maize and openly pollinated varieties of wheat and teff that incentivize private sector participation in maize seed markets over wheat and teff seed markets. These differences demand different policies and perhaps even institutional approaches to accelerating adoption between hybrids and OPVs.

Trade, value chains, and rent distribution with foreign exchange controls: Coffee exports in Ethiopia

Exchange rate policies can have important implications on incentives for export agriculture. However, their effects are often not well understood. We study the issue of foreign exchange controls and pricing in the value chain for Ethiopia's coffee—its most important export crop. Relying on unique pricing and cost data, we find that coffee exporters are willing to incur losses during exporting by offering high prices for coffee locally in order to access scarce foreign exchange. We further find that the consequent high wholesale prices for coffee are transmitted to producers, so that coffee farmers are unintended beneficiaries of this rent.

Post-harvest losses in rural-urban value chains: Evidence from Ethiopia

We study post-harvest losses (PHL) in important and rapidly growing rural–urban value chains in Ethiopia. We analyze self-reported PHL from different value chain agents – farmers, wholesale traders, processors, and retailers – based on unique large-scale data sets for two major commercial commodities, the storable staple teff and the perishable liquid milk. Aggregate PHL over all segments of the value chain (farmer to retailer) in the most prevalent marketing channel for teff and milk amount to between 2.2 and 3.3 percent and 2.1 and 4.3 percent of total produced quantities, respectively. Estimates of PHL from this research are found to be lower than is commonly assumed. We complement these findings with primary data from urban food retailers for more than 4,000 commodities. We find that the emerging modern retail sector in Ethiopia is characterized on average by half the level of PHL than is observed in the traditional retail sector. This is likely due to more stringent quality requirements in procurement systems, to sales of more packaged – and therefore better protected – commodities, and to better refrigeration, storage, and sales facilities. The further expected expansion of modern retail in these settings should therefore likely lead to a lowering of PHL in food value chains, at least at the retail level.

Geography of public service delivery in rural Ethiopia

Remote areas are often characterized by lower welfare outcomes due to economic disadvantages and higher transaction costs for trade. But their poorer situation may also be linked to worse public service delivery. Relying on large household surveys in rural Ethiopia, we explore this by assessing the association of two measures of remoteness – (1) the distance of service centers to district capitals and (2) the distance of households to service centers (the last mile) – with public service delivery in agriculture and health sectors. In the agriculture sector, we document statistically significant and economically meaningful associations between exposure to agriculture extension and the two measures of remoteness. For health extension, only the last mile matters. These differences between the two sectors could be due to the fact that more remote villages tend to have fewer agriculture extension workers who also put in fewer hours than their peers in more connected areas. This does not apply in the health sector. These findings provide valuable inputs for policymakers aiming to improve inclusiveness in poor rural areas.

Variation in women’s attitudes toward intimate partner violence across the rural-urban continuum in Ethiopia

Little is known about the impacts of urbanization on women’s attitudes toward intimate partner violence (IPV). The scarcity of empirical studies on this relationship can be partly attributed to the lack of an objective measure of urbanization levels. In this study, we investigate the effects of urbanization on both women’s attitudes toward IPV using three continuous measures of urbanization: nightlight intensity, distance to urban areas, and total urban area within a 10-km radius. These measures are defined from satellite-based nighttime-light-intensity and multispectralsensor data. We find that despite a generally strong positive association between urbanization and progressive attitudes among women toward IPV, some stages of urbanization show a more significant association than others. Such nonlinear relationships are apparent in all estimations and across different measurements of urbanization. The heterogeneities in the effect of urbanization on women’s attitudes toward intimate partner violence further show that the effects of urbanization are sharply heterogeneous across wealth indicator terciles. While we find that urbanization is associated with an overall decrease in the acceptance of IPV, the effect is mostly concentrated in higher wealth terciles. For women in lower wealth terciles, urbanization is either insignificant or even associated with an increase in the acceptance of IPV.

The short-term impact of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy through external sector channels: An economywide multiplier model analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to considerably affect the Ethiopian economy directly and indirectly due to global shocks and to the different restrictive preventative measures the country is taking. We analyze these economic effects using multisector economywide income multiplier models built on the two latest Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed for Ethiopia. Three external sector channels are the focus of the analysis: commodity exports, strategic imports, and remittances. Results indicate that in the absence of any policy responses, the Ethiopian economy is expected to experience a loss of approximately 4.3 to 5.5 percent of its annual GDP due to exports, strategic imports, and remittances that are one-third lower relative to the no-COVID situation over a period of six-months. This translates into estimated reductions in labor income of between 4.2 and 5.2 percent. The SAM multiplier model estimates also imply that these negative shocks lead to household income losses that amount to between 3.9 and 6.4 percent. In particular, the urban poor will be the most affected as they lose real incomes in the range of 6.6 to 8.5 percent. These income losses are estimated to result in a 3.5 percentage point rise in the national poverty headcount.

Assessing the short-term impacts of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy: External and domestic shocks and pace of recovery

In this paper, we analyze the economic impacts of response measures adopted in Ethiopia to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We carry out simulations using an economywide multiplier model based on a 2017 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the country that properly depicts interactions between economic agents. The pandemic’s impact on the global economy combined with disruptions it causes in Ethiopia represents a large, unprecedented shock to the country’s economy. In such situations, a SAM-based multiplier model provides an ideal tool for measuring the short-term direct and indirect impacts of a shock on an economic system since there is limited room for proper adjustment of economic decisions. We model the seven-week partial lockdown policy implemented in Ethiopia from mid-March to early May 2020. We also consider two possible economic recovery scenarios that may emerge as the COVID-19 control policies are relaxed during the latter part of 2020 in order to generate insights on the potential continuing impact of the virus at the end of 2020. Although the country took early swift measures, our assessment of the partial lockdown measures suggests that they were not as strict as those observed in other Africa countries. Accordingly, our estimates of the economic costs of COVID-19 on Ethiopia are significantly lower than those reported for other countries on the continent. We estimate that during the lockdown period Ethiopia’s GDP suffered a 14 percent loss (43.5 billion Birr or 1.9 billion USD) compared to a no-COVID case over the same period. Nearly two-thirds of the losses were in the services sector. Although no direct restrictions were imposed on the agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Ethiopians, the sector faced a 4.7 percent loss in output due to its linkages with the rest of the economy. Poor export performance due to a slowdown in global trade and restrictions on the transport sector also partly explain the decline in agricultural output. The broader agri-food system also was affected considerably because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. In terms of the welfare of Ethiopians, we estimate that the economic impacts during the lockdown caused 10.1 million additional people to fall below the poverty line. These findings have implications for better understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 and for policy design during the recovery period to return Ethiopia’s economy to a normal growth trajectory and to protect the livelihoods of the most vulnerable in the process.

Value chains for nutritious food: Analysis of the egg value chain in the Tigray region of Ethiopia

Eggs have high potential for improving nutrition outcomes in low-income countries, yet very few children in such settings consume eggs on a regular basis despite widespread poultry ownership. To redress this disconnect, a number of interventions have been implemented to improve household production of poultry products, as well as caregiver awareness of the nutritional benefits of eggs and other animal-sourced foods. However, very few of these interventions have tried to leverage food markets to improve nutrition, even though most rural people predominantly rely on markets for the majority of their non-staple food consumption. This study was implemented to better understand the constraints to purchasing eggs for consumption by young children in rural Ethiopia, with a view to informing the design of marketoriented interventions that might cost-effectively increase children’s egg consumption. To do so we analyzed secondary datasets on poultry ownership, household and child egg consumption, and retail egg prices to understand egg markets and the egg value chain in Tigray. Similar to other contexts in sub-Saharan Africa, we find that two-thirds of households own poultry, though only onequarter of young children consumed eggs in the past 24 hours. Although markets in Tigray are well integrated – likely because of the important role of egg aggregators – egg prices remain high. A modest consumption level of 2.5 eggs per person per week would cost around 10 percent of the total budget of households in the poorest quintile of households, even though eggs are more affordable than other animal-sourced foods. We find that egg consumption among young children is not constrained by fasting associated with Orthodox Christianity. High prices are likely the main constraint and are a function of low levels of intensification in egg production, which is dominated by backyard poultry systems characterized by high mortality rates and low productivity. Localized increases in egg production will therefore be needed to lower prices, at least in the short to medium term. We hypothesize that extending the presence of private sector poultry input suppliers in Tigray – who provide chicks through semi-independent agents – offers an entry point for increasing production, lowering prices, and increasing consumption. These input suppliers already have a scalable micro- ranchising model that provides strong economic returns to raising poultry. That model could potentially also be leveraged to raise awareness of the nutritional benefits of eggs.

Emerging medium-scale tenant farming, gig economies, and the COVID-19 disruption: The case of commercial vegetable clusters in Ethiopia

Driven by the fast spread of private irrigation pumps, there has been a rapid expansion of intensive vegetable cultivation in the central Rift Valley in Ethiopia, making it the most important commercial vegetable production cluster in the country. Supporting that “quiet revolution” has been an inflow of migrant laborers—paid through daily, monthly, or piecemeal contracts, with few employment benefits attached to them—and a gig economy as widely used contractors organize, among others, mechanized land preparation, the digging of wells and ponds, seedling propagation, and loading of trucks. Almost 60% of the irrigated area is cultivated by medium-scale tenant farmers relying on short-term rental contracts. It seems that gig economies characterized by flexible contract arrangements implemented by outside contractors, which are increasingly fueling sophisticated sectors in developed countries, are important in these commercial agrarian settings in Africa as well. We further find that the COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant disruptions of this model, as seen by more limited access to services and the unavailability or high price increases in factor markets, especially for labor, and large but heterogenous price changes in output markets.

Cropland expansion

Chapter 2, “Cropland Expansion,” uses spatially disaggregated satellite data to examine changes in land use over time at the national level. This is the first time that such dynamic analysis has been examined at this level. The data indicate a slowing in rate of cropland expansion in much of northern Ethiopia. The authors use results of econometric analysis of land use changes over time to estimate maximum potential economic cropland across space and potential land expansion. The analysis suggests little scope for further crop expansion in the drier parts of the highland but ample opportunities for increased crop cultivation on underused land with sufficient rainfall in parts of western regions (especially Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella) and in the Oromia region.

Droughts, cereal prices, and price stabilization options

Chapter 9, “Droughts, Cereal Prices, and Price Stabilization Options,” looks at price volatility, causes, and policy options. Increases in cereal prices in Ethiopia often raise concerns about adverse effects for poor net consumers. In particular, the frequent natural calamities—especially droughts—in Ethiopia can lead to important price hikes. But domestic prices of some cereals (especially maize) fluctuate every year with prices at harvest times substantially dropping, to the detriment of producers. Price stabilization efforts are therefore an important consideration for Ethiopian policymakers. This chapter sheds light on options for cereal price stabilization in Ethiopia drawing on experiences of other developing countries. The international experience in food price stabilization shows that while some countries have achieved success, the efforts of many others have actually destabilized market prices at great fiscal costs. When assessing the extent to which price stabilization efforts in Ethiopia were effective during the major El Niño–induced droughts of 2015 and 2016 (including food aid distributed through the PSNP), the authors find that an opportunity was missed to enhance food security and consumer welfare by allowing private-sector imports to minimize the rise in cereal prices as well as to reduce the fiscal costs to the government and donors.

Evolving livestock sector

Chapter 5, “Evolving Livestock Sector,” shows that livestock is important in Ethiopia’s agricultural economy as almost all farmers own some livestock. Overall livestock output is shown to have grown rapidly over the past decade, estimated at almost 6 percent per year, but about 80 percent of that growth came from increases in the number of livestock. The stock of different livestock species was about 50 percent higher in 2015 than a decade earlier, while modern input use and improvements in production methods contributed little to growth in the livestock sector. Linked to improved access to extension and markets, adoption of improved breeds and improved feeding practices increased, but such adoption patterns started from a very low base. Within the livestock sector, cattle are dominant, making up an estimated three-quarters of the value of livestock stock. However, the share of cattle in total livestock output is declining, and small ruminants are on the rise, especially in pastoralist areas. Given the rapid growth in livestock numbers and the increasing Structural Transformation and the Agricultural Food System: An An Introduction 13 livestock density per unit of land, the authors find that feeding practices are changing. Grazing land is declining in availability, so reliance on commercial feed markets is increasing. Access to vaccinations and veterinary service provision have improved, and livestock death rates declined slightly over the past decade. However, the number of livestock lost to deaths is still more than twice the number sold for meat production, indicating important challenges remaining for the development of the livestock sector in Ethiopia.

Urbanization and structural transformation

Chapter 12, “Urbanization and Structural Transformation,” describes patterns of urbanization in Ethiopia and government policy to promote development of secondary cities. Official population data indicate rapid urban growth, 4.2 percent per year between 1994 and 2015, far outpacing the overall population growth rate of 2.5 percent. By 2050 urbanization is expected to reach 38 percent with major implications for relative wage rates in rural versus urban areas, infrastructure needs, and public service delivery. Improved road infrastructure is improving connectivity across the country and promoting secondary city development. In addition, recent public investments to promote industrialization and increase manufacturing labor opportunities via newly constructed and planned industrial parks, though small relative to the overall economy, are designed to be a catalyst for future growth.

Food security

Chapter 10, “Food Security,” describes the evolution of poverty and food security between 2010/2011 and 2015/2016 and examines the seasonality of food insecurity. Household survey data from 2016 show that Ethiopia continues to face high levels of food insecurity: daily energy consumption is low (3,055 kilocalories per adult on average), and diet quality is poor (starchy staples account for 71.6 percent of calories). There has been relatively little change in the composition of diets between 2011 and 2016, although the diets of the poorest half of the population (especially in rural areas) improved slightly with less reliance on starchy staples and greater dietary diversity. The authors find substantial seasonal patterns, however, with marked variations in energy (calorie) consumption, which is highest in postharvest periods. Regression analysis using the 2015/2016 data reveals that that average energy intake is positively associated with total household expenditure and productive farm

Evolving food value chains

The second part of the book, “Evolving Markets and Household Consumption,” begins with Chapter 7 on “Evolving Food Value Chains.” Ethiopia’s food systems are changing rapidly as high population growth, rapid urbanization, major infrastructure investments, and substantial income growth are leading to dietary, agricultural, and supply chain transformations. Over the past two decades, calorie consumption has risen, the share of starchy staples in the diet has fallen, and the shares of high-value products (such as animal-sourced foods, fruits and vegetables, processed convenience foods, and out-of-home food consumption) have risen. At the same time, use of fertilizer, improved seeds, and mechanization is increasing. Nonetheless, smallholders, who have an average agricultural area of 1.0 hectare per holder and who cultivate 93 percent of the agricultural land in Ethiopia, are facing increasing land constraints: farm sizes are declining over time and, in comparison to older farmers, younger farmers are more reliant on land rental markets to access the land that they farm. The transformation of agricultural supply chains is especially rapid, providing for increases in employment. Agricultural commercial surpluses are rapidly growing, and modern food marketing methods and technologies have emerged, including mobile phones, a commodity exchange, and an incipient modern retail sector and food service sector. Domestic markets are better integrated as spatial and seasonal price margins have narrowed. External trade has also expanded since 2000 despite high transport costs and foreign exchange restrictions.

Farm size, food security, and welfare

Chapter 6, “Farm Size, Food Security, and Welfare,” looks at the association of farm sizes with food security and welfare. This is an important issue in Ethiopian agriculture given that a growing rural population combined with limited scope for further land expansion and slow movement out of agriculture means that average (mean) farm sizes are decreasing in Ethiopia. Using cross-sectional data for the Ethiopian highlands, the authors find—surprisingly—small differences between owners of small and large farms in key welfare and food security outcomes. For example, a 20 percent increase in owned land area is associated with only a 0.7 percent increase in food consumption (measured in calories). Five adjustments are made by households residing on small farms to assure similar calorie intake as those residing on larger farms.12 First, they participate actively in land rental markets and, as a result, are able to double their cultivated land area on average. Second, they compensate their small landholdings with other income sources, mainly livestock and nonfarm businesses, permitting additional food purchases. Third, they cultivate their land more intensively, obtaining higher yields. Fourth, they favor more calorie-dense crops that are mostly used for their own consumption. Fifth, they produce as well as consume cheaper food items.

Toward a medium-term agricultural and rural development strategy

Finally, Chapter 14, “Toward a Medium-Term Agricultural and Rural Development Strategy,” highlights the book’s major themes and discusses implications for policy. In particular, the authors emphasize the importance of continued investments to increase agricultural productivity, market efficiency, and infrastructure (roads, small-scale irrigation, and electricity generation) to support both agriculture and the rural and small-town nonfarm economy. Without these investments substantial poverty increases and growing inequality are likely to result, even if there is rapid overall economic growth.

Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios

Ethiopia has experienced impressive agricultural growth and poverty reduction, stemming in part from substantial public investments in agriculture. Yet, the agriculture sector now faces increasing land and water constraints along with other challenges to growth. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System: Past Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Scenarios presents a forward-looking analysis of Ethiopia’s agrifood system in the context of a rapidly changing economy. Growth in the agriculture sector remains essential to continued poverty reduction in Ethiopia and will depend on sustained investment in the agrifood system, especially private sector investment. Many of the policies for a successful agricultural and rural development strategy for Ethiopia are relevant for other African countries, as well. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System should be a valuable resource for policymakers, development specialists, and others concerned with economic development in Africa south of the Sahara.

This book was funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, formerly known as DfID. The name change occured on September 1, 2020. References in the book may refer to the former name.

This record also includes the following synopsis:
Dorosh, Paul A.; and Minten, Bart. 2020. Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios: Synopsis. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896296930

The transforming dairy sector in Ethiopia

In the transformation of agri-food systems in developing countries, we usually see rapid changes in the dairy sector. However, good data for understanding patterns and inclusiveness of this transformation are often lacking. This is important given implications for policy design and service and technology provision towards better performing dairy sectors in these settings. Relying on a combination of unique diverse large-scale datasets and methods, we analyze transformation patterns in the dairy value chain supplying Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa. Over the last decade, we note a rapid increase in expenditures on dairy products by urban consumers, especially among the better-off. Relatedly, the number of dairy processing firms in Ethiopia tripled over the same period, supplying a significant part of these dairy products, especially pasteurized milk, to the city’s residents. Upstream at the production level, we find improved access to livestock services, higher adoption of cross-bred cows, an increase in milk yields, expanding liquid milk markets, a sizable urban farm sector supplying almost one-third of all liquid milk consumed in the city, and an upscaling process with larger commercial dairy farms becoming more prevalent. However, average milk yields are still low and not all dairy farmers are included in this transformation process. Small farms with dairy animals as well as those in more remote areas benefit less from access to services and adopt less these modern practices. For these more disadvantaged farmers, stagnation in milk yields and even declines–depending on the data source used–are observed.

Economic impacts of COVID-19 pandemic in Ethiopia: A review of phone survey evidence

As in most low and middle-income countries, the paucity of timely economic data in Ethiopia makes it difficult to understand the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. To mitigate this, several organizations have launched phone surveys to gather more information about the crisis. This research report reviews the available phone survey evidence as of mid-August 2020 and identifies knowledge gaps. First, the available evidence suggest that the pandemic has not led to unusually large increases in food prices. However, a case study in the vegetable sector suggests that price dynamics are highly context and crop specific, calling for more comprehensive price monitoring to identify food value chains and areas where food price increases may have been unusually rapid. Second, employment losses have concentrated on informal sector workers while redundancies in the formal sector have been less significant. Third, there is considerable uncertainty about the income, poverty, and food security implications of this crisis. While most households report income losses, the qualitative and subjective nature of these questions mean that the magnitudes of these losses are unknown. In Addis Ababa, less subjective food security measures indicate only small negative changes in household food and nutrition security. Finally, due to limited access to mobile phones in rural areas, we have imperfect and incomplete information on how this crisis is affecting rural households.

Structural transformation and the agricultural food system: An introduction

Ethiopia’s agricultural sector has grown rapidly since 2000 due to a doubling in the use of modern inputs (chemical fertilizers and improved seeds), significant land expansion, increased labor use, and a 2.3 percent per year growth in total factor productivity (TFP) (Bachewe et al. 2018). At the same time, there has been a substantial spatial and structural transformation of the economy. Ethiopia’s urban population has more than doubled in the past 20 years (from 7.3 million in 1994 to 17.5 million in 2015), and nonagricultural output has grown rapidly so that the share of nonagriculture in GDP has risen from less than half in 2000 to about two-thirds today. Moreover, household welfare indicators have improved dramatically as rural poverty fell from 45 percent in 1999–2000 to 23.5 percent in 2015–2016 (Figure 1.1). Measures of malnutrition of children also improved significantly. For example, from 2000 to 2016 the child stunting rate fell from 58 percent to 38 percent while the share of children that are underweight declined from 41 percent to 24 percent over the same period (Ethiopia, CSA and ICF 2016; NPC 2017) (Figure 1.2). However, wasting only declined by 2 percent.

Evolving animal-sourced foods and livestock markets

Chapter 8, “Evolving Animal Sourced Foods and Livestock Markets,” covers the changing situation in livestock marketing systems. The authors find that in many developing countries in which staple foods dominate the composition of diets, higher consumption of animal-sourced foods (ASF) is associated with significant nutritional benefits. Given the importance of prices for consumption decisions in these settings, they analyze ASF price patterns, relying on a large-scale price dataset collected in 116 urban retail markets in Ethiopia. The authors document important seasonal and spatial patterns, and they find, worryingly, that real prices of ASF have been increasing over the past decade by between 32 percent and 36 percent for three major ASFs—milk, eggs, and meat. Similar price increases are noted in rural and urban areas as well as for tradable and nontradable ASFs. This price trend is in contrast with staple cereals for which real prices stayed at similar levels over the past decade. As they estimate that a price increase of this magnitude would reduce consumption of ASF by approximately 25 percent, holding other things constant, it seems that more investments and attention to the production of ASF and the livestock sector are needed to reduce ASF prices and increase their consumption in Ethiopia.

Climate change impacts on crop yields [In Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios]

Chapter 4, “Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields,” presents results of model simulations of crop yields in Ethiopia through 2085. The analysis draws on climate outcomes from 32 global climate models and an agronomic crop model to estimate effects of expected higher temperatures and, for most of Ethiopia, increased rainfall. The simulation results suggest that climate change will likely have only relatively small effects on average yields of maize, wheat, and sorghum in Ethiopia up to 2055, as agronomic conditions for cultivation of these crops may actually improve in large parts of the country. Nonetheless, crop yields will need to increase over time to enable cereal production to keep pace with expected demand growth due to increases in population and per capita incomes. Moreover, even if future changes in climate have only moderate impacts on average crop yields in Ethiopia, weather outcomes and consequent crop yields are likely to become more variable in the future.

Public investments and poverty reduction

Chapter 13, “Public Investments and Poverty Reduction,” presents results of general equilibrium simulations of the impacts of alternative investment strategies, focusing on national income (GDP) and incomes of the poorest 40 percent of the population in both rural and urban areas. These simulations, which incorporate the major factors discussed in this book—including land constraints, productivity growth, migration, expanding markets, rising incomes and consumption, and greater urbanization—show that although urban investments generate faster economic growth and structural transformation, investments in the rural economy are likely to continue to be more pro-poor than urban public investments through the mid-2020s. After the mid-2020s, investments in cities become more pro-poor. The authors show that though rapid economic growth and structural transformation have diminished the relative importance of the agricultural sector in Ethiopia’s economy, continued public investments in agriculture and the broader agrifood system remain crucial for equity and poverty alleviation (and for a reduction of food import dependency) in Ethiopia.

Crop productivity and potential

Chapter 3, “Crop Productivity and Potential,” documents and explains the causal factors for the rapid expansion in crop production in Ethiopia (official estimates show an increase in production of grain crops from 16.1 million metric tons to 30.6 million metric tons from 2007/2008 to 2017/2018). Using data on input use (such as land, improved seeds, fertilizer, and agricultural extension services), the authors estimate the combined effect of increased inputs. The residual, then, is an estimate of the gains in total factor productivity. Further rapid gains in yields seem less likely, though, given the high levels of input use already achieved. They illustrate some of the challenges in crop production, linked to the research and extension system, the limited access to irrigation, and the seed sector.

Ethiopia [In Agricultural Extension]

This chapter takes stock of the provision of extension services in line with the country’s development and suggests ways such services might contribute to accelerating agricultural growth and poverty reduction in the years ahead. Ethiopia has invested significantly in its extension system, in line with national policies that place a high priority on boosting agricultural production and productivity. Ethiopia is considered a leading country globally in the provision of extension services to farmers and has the highest extension agent-to-farmer ratio of any country. Ethiopia presents an interesting case, as it is one of few African countries to have placed agriculture at the forefront of its economic development policies, having invested heavily in the sector over the past two decades. Unlike many countries where private-sector extension services expanded following drastic public funding cuts to their extension systems in the 1980s and 1990s (Zhou and Babu 2015), Ethiopia’s extension system remains predominantly public.

Nonfarm income and rural labor markets

The third part of the book presents “Economywide Perspectives” on the future of Ethiopian agriculture. Chapter 11, “Nonfarm Income and Rural Labor Markets,” examines how the rapid transformation in Ethiopia’s economy is affecting off-farm income and labor markets in rural areas.13 Data from a large-scale household survey in high potential agricultural areas show that total off-farm income (defined as wage and enterprise income) makes up 18 percent of total rural household income. The shares of off-farm income and wage income are even larger for the poor and for female- and youth-headed households. Moreover, given strong growth in agriculture and the overall Ethiopian economy, real rural wages have increased by 54 percent since 2006. While this wage increase is good news for the poor, it also induces adjustments in agricultural production practices, including increased adoption of labor-substituting technologies such as herbicides and mechanization. Higher wages and incomes relax liquidity constraints in the off-season for some households, also contributing to higher productivity.

Impact of Ethiopia’s 2015 drought on child undernutrition

In 2015, Ethiopia experienced one of its worst droughts in decades. Using nationally representative data from before and after the event, we do not find evidence that this drought led to widespread increases in chronic or acute child undernutrition. However, further analysis indicates that chronic undernutrition rates did increase in drought-exposed areas that had a limited road network. This finding suggests that the recent investments in road infrastructure in Ethiopia may have contributed towards better resilience against droughts.

Emerging medium-scale tenant farming, gig economies, and the COVID-19 disruption: Evidence from commercial vegetable clusters in Ethiopia

Driven by the fast spread of private irrigation pumps, there has been a rapid expansion of intensive vegetable cultivation in the central Rift Valley in Ethiopia, making it the most important commercial vegetable production cluster in the country. Supporting that “quiet revolution” has been an inflow of migrant laborers – paid through daily, monthly, or piecemeal contracts, with few employment benefits attached to them – and a gig economy as widely-used contractors organize, among others, mechanized land preparation, the digging of wells and ponds, seedling propagation, and loading of trucks. Almost 60 percent of the irrigated area is cultivated by medium-scale tenant farmers relying on short-term rental contracts. It seems that gig economies characterized by flexible contract arrangements implemented by outside contractors, which are increasingly fueling sophisticated sectors in developed countries, are important in these commercial agrarian settings in Africa as well. We further find that the COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant disruptions of this model, as seen by more limited access to services and the unavailability or high price increases in factor markets, especially for labor. We further note large but heterogenous price changes in output markets. The pandemic seems especially to have had important effects on the medium-scale tenant farmers as they depend relatively more than smallholders on outside inputs, labor markets, and these gig economies. However, on the other hand, they benefit more than smallholders from favorable output markets for vegetables.

Food marketing margins during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from vegetables in Ethiopia

It is widely feared that the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a significant worsening of the food security situation in low and middle-income countries. One reason for this is the disruption of food marketing systems and subsequent changes in farm and consumer prices. Based on primary data in Ethiopia collected just before the start and a few months into the pandemic, we assess changes in farm and consumer prices of four major vegetables and the contribution of different segments of the rural-urban value chain in urban retail price formation. We find large, but heterogeneous, price changes for different vegetables with relatively larger changes seen at the farm level, compared to the consumer level, leading to winners and losers among local vegetable farmers due to pandemicrelated trade disruptions. We further note that despite substantial hurdles in domestic trade reported by most value chain agents, increases in marketing – and especially transportation – costs have not been the major contributor to overall changes in retail prices. Marketing margins even declined for half of the vegetables studied. The relatively small changes in marketing margins overall indicate the resilience of these domestic value chains during the pandemic in Ethiopia.

Food and nutrition security in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia during COVID-19 pandemic: July 2020 report

In early July 2020, we called by telephone a representative sample of nearly 600 households in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia to assess income changes and household food and nutrition security status during the COVID-19 pandemic (recall period covering June). This was the third administration of a COVID-19 related survey to these households, following surveys in early May 2020 and early June. About 64 percent of the households indicated in the third survey that their incomes were lower than expected (down from 67 percent reporting lower incomes than expected in previous month) and 42 percent reported that they are extremely stressed about the situation (down from 45 percent in previous month). Using a pre-pandemic wealth index, we find that less-wealthy households were considerably more likely to report income losses and high stress levels than were wealthier households. Compared to the period just before the pandemic (January and February 2020), indicators measuring food security have significantly worsened but during the pandemic they have remained relatively stable. Households now are less frequently consuming relatively more expensive but nutritionally richer foods, such as fruit and dairy products. However, overall food security status in Addis Ababa is not yet alarming and we see small signs of improvements in this July phone survey relative to previous months. However, many households have drawn down their savings over past months to buffer their food consumption. As the daily COVID-19 infection rates are still rising in Ethiopia, the food security situation in Addis Ababa may deteriorate over coming months, especially as the savings levels among the poorest households are now low. This calls for a further scale-up and strengthening of existing support programs.

Survey suggests rising risk of food and nutrition insecurity in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, as COVID-19 restrictions continue

To cast light on how households in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, are reacting to the crisis, IFPRI’s Ethiopia Strategy Support Program (ESSP), with the support of the CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH), has begun a series of monthly phone surveys. Initial data demonstrate that poorer households are taking a greater economic hit than those with higher incomes, and that dietary diversity has declined. The results suggest the food security situation in Addis Ababa could sharply deteriorate in the coming weeks if disease transmission and social distancing measures continue.

Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on vegetable value chains in Ethiopia

The COVID-19 pandemic is beginning to disrupt food value chains in Ethiopia and elsewhere, impacting the livelihoods of farmers and the diets of rural and urban households. These effects are likely to hit the poorest and most vulnerable farmers and consumers the hardest, but they are not yet well understood. More evidence is needed to guide the government and other organizations in devising responses. While not representative of the whole value chain, our interviews with vegetable production stakeholders have a number of potential policy implications.

Assessing community health information systems: Evidence from child health records in food insecure areas of the Ethiopian highlands

Objectives: This study assessed the completeness of child health records maintained and collected within community health information system in Ethiopia. Methods: A household listing was carried out in 221 enumeration areas in food insecure areas of Ethiopia to determine the presence of a child less than 24-months. This list of children was then compared against the information stored at the local health posts. A household survey was administered to a sample of 2155 households that had a child less than 24-months of age to assess determinants and consequences of exclusion from the health post registers. Results: Out of the 10,318 children identified during the listing, 36% were found from the health post records. Further analysis based on the household survey data indicated that health posts that had adopted nationally recommended recordkeeping practices had more complete records (p < 0.01) and that children residing farther from health posts were less likely to be found from the registers (p < 0.05). Mothers whose child was found from the registers were more likely to know a health extension worker (p < 0.01), had a contact with one (p < 0.01), and their child was more likely to have received growth monitoring (p < 0.05). Conclusions for Practice: The incompleteness of the data collected at the health posts poses a challenge for effective implementation of the national health extension program and various complementary programs in Ethiopia.

Incentivizing and retaining public servants in remote areas: A discrete choice experiment with agricultural extension agents in Ethiopia

Increased deployment of agricultural extension agents (EAs) in rural areas is grounded on their importance to spur agricultural productivity and mitigate spatial imbalances in welfare. However, the high turnover and the low motivation levels of EAs in remote areas pose challenges for equitable service provision and, in some cases, exacerbates geographic disparities. We assess the effectiveness of selected potential policy interventions to incentivize and retain EAs in remote areas of Ethiopia. To this end, we conducted a choice experiment to elicit preferences for job attributes of 761 EAs. We applied a random parameters logit model to estimate parameters of interest and to simulate the impact of possible policy interventions. The main results show that offering continuing education opportunities after two years of service increases uptake of an extension job in remote locations by 77 percentage points, which is significantly higher than the effect from doubling current salary levels (70 percentage points). EAs also expressed a strong preference for work environments with basic amenities, housing, transportation services, and wellequipped Farmer Training Centers (FTCs). Furthermore, the results from sub-sample analyses show that female EAs are less responsive to pecuniary incentives and are more concerned with the availability of infrastructure and services. Current salary levels, years of employment, and location of work are also important sources of heterogeneity in the response of EAs to potential policy changes.

Food safety, modernization, and food prices: Evidence from milk in Ethiopia

Modern marketing arrangements are increasingly being implemented to assure improved food quality and safety. However, it is not well known how these modern marketing arrangements perform in early stages of roll-out. We study this issue in the case of rural-urban milk value chains in Ethiopia, where modern processing companies – selling branded pasteurized milk – and modern retail have expanded rapidly in recent years. We find overall that the adoption levels of hygienic practices and practices leading to safer milk by dairy producers in Ethiopia are low and that there are no significant differences between traditional and modern milk value chains. While suppliers to modern processing companies are associated with more formal milk testing, they do not obtain price premiums for the adoption of improved practices nor do they obtain higher prices overall. Rewards to suppliers by modern processing companies are mostly done through non-price mechanisms. At the urban retail level, we surprisingly find that there are no price differences between branded pasteurized and raw milk and that modern retailers sell pasteurized milk at lower prices, ceteris paribus. Modern value chains to better reward hygiene and food safety in these settings are therefore called for.

Food and nutrition security in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia during COVID-19 pandemic: June 2020 report

In early June 2020, we called by telephone a representative sample of nearly 600 households in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia to assess income changes and household food and nutrition security status during the COVID-19 pandemic (survey period covering May). This was the second administration of a COVID-19 related survey to these households, following an initial survey conducted in early May 2020 covering the situation of the survey households in April. More than two-third of the households indicated in the second survey that their incomes were lower than expected (up from 58 percent in April) and 45 percent reported that they are extremely stressed about the situation (up from 35 percent in April). Using a pre-pandemic wealth index, we find that less-wealthy households were considerably more likely to report income losses and high stress levels than were wealthier households. Compared to a period just before the pandemic (January and February 2020), indicators measuring food security have significantly worsened but have remained the same since April. During the pandemic, households are less and less frequently consuming relatively more expensive but nutritionally richer foods, such as fruit and dairy products. However, overall food security status in Addis Ababa is not yet alarming, possibly because many households have been able to use their savings to buffer food consumption. As the pandemic is still in an early stage in Ethiopia, it is likely that these savings will not last throughout the pandemic, calling for a rapid scale-up of existing support programs.

Accelerating progress in improving diets and nutrition in Ethiopia

Ethiopia has witnessed significant reductions in child mortality, undernutrition, and communicable diseases, but more substantial and faster progress is still needed. The rise in obesity and in noncommunicable diseases, particularly in urban areas, is alarming and requires urgent policy and programmatic attention. Unhealthy diets drive both undernutrition and obesity and are the underlying cause of significant proportion of both communicable and non-communicable diseases. Maintaining the relatively high breastfeeding practices and increasing the diversity of diets will be critical to improving nutrition in Ethiopia. Implementation of effective nutrition messaging that shapes consumer behavior to adopt healthy dietary patterns, while bridging gaps in both the reach and the quality of such messaging is warranted. The health extension program, which is the cornerstone of the transformation of the health sector, may need to be redesigned in a way that improves its reach and the quality of the services it provides and minimizes the risk of burnout of frontline health workers. Interventions focusing on making healthy diets available, affordable, and accessible are urgently needed.

Synopsis: Accelerating progress in improving diets and nutrition in Ethiopia

Ethiopia has witnessed significant reductions in child mortality, undernutrition and communicable diseases, but more substantial and faster progress is still needed. The rise in overweight and obesity and in non-communicable diseases, particularly in urban areas, is alarming and requires urgent policy and programmatic attention. Unhealthy diets are the drivers of both forms of malnutrition and are the underlying cause of significant proportion of communicable and non-communicable diseases. Maintaining the relatively high breastfeeding practices and increasing the diversity of diets will be critical. Implementation of effective nutrition messaging that shapes consumer behavior to adopt healthy dietary patterns, while bridging gaps in reach and quality of nutrition messaging is warranted. The health extension program that is the cornerstone of the health sector transformation may need to be redesigned in a way that improves reach, quality, and minimize the risk of burnout of frontline health workers. Interventions focusing on making healthy diets affordable, accessible and available are urgently needed.

From agricultural experiment station to farm: The impact of the promotion of a new technology on farmers’ yields in Ethiopia

Fasting, food, and farming: Evidence from Ethiopian producers on the link of food taboos with dairy development

The impact of food taboos – often because of religion – is understudied. In Ethiopia, religious fasting by Orthodox Christians is assumed to be an important impediment for the sustainable development of a competitive dairy sector and desired higher milk consumption, especially by children. However, evidence is limited. Relying on unique data, we shed light on three major issues. First, we observe that the average annual number of fasting days that Orthodox adults are effectively adhering to is 140, less than commonly cited averages. Using this as an estimate for extrapolation, fasting is estimated to reduce annual dairy consumption by approximately 12 percent nationally. Second, farms adapt to declining milk demand during fasting by increased processing of milk into storable products – fasting contributes to larger price swings for these products. We further note continued sales of milk by non-remote farmers and reduced production – by adjusting lactation times for dairy animals – for remote farmers. Third, fasting is mostly associated with increased milk consumption by the children of dairy farmers, seemingly because of excess milk availability during fasting periods. Our results suggest that fasting habits are not a major explanation for the observed poor performance of Ethiopia’s dairy sector nor low milk consumption by children. To reduce the impact of fasting on the dairy sector in Ethiopia further, investment is called for in improved milk processing, storage, and infrastructure facilities.

COVID-19 prevention measures in Ethiopia: Current realities and prospects

Immediately after the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Ethiopia in March 2020, the Government of Ethiopia took several public health measures to prevent increased levels of infection These included closing all schools and restricting large gatherings and movements of people. Hand-washing and social distancing were the main prevention measures that government has communicated to the general public through various media platforms. Using the latest round of the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey, COVID-19 relevant indicators related to household access to communication platforms; access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH); and characteristics of the home environment were assessed. The analysis shows that a sizeable proportion of the rural population does not have access to the media platforms used to publicize COVID-19 prevention measures. Moreover, without aggressive interventions, current levels of access to water and soap are suboptimal to adopt the hand-washing recommendations, particularly in rural areas. The low proportion of households with electricity, refrigeration, or internet connection and the relatively high prevalence of partner violence suggest that implementing the stay and work from home measures will be challenging. Public health measures that slow down the transmission of the virus should be continued and efforts to prevent transmission to rural areas should be prioritized. Communication platforms and messaging will need to be adapted to different local realities to make any COVID-19 containment recommendations operational. WASH-related support should be ramped-up, and addressing barriers to staying at home, such as the risk of partner violence, should be considered. The efforts needed to end the current pandemic in Ethiopia, as well as similar pandemics in the future, illuminates the serious challenges related to WASH and to the inequalities between rural and urban areas that need urgent attention.

Food and nutrition security in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia during COVID-19 pandemic: May 2020 report

We called by telephone a representative sample of 600 households in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia to assess household food and nutrition security status during the COVID-19 pandemic. More than half the households indicated that their incomes were lower than expected and more than one-third reported that they are extremely stressed about the situation. Using a pre-pandemic wealth index, we find that less-wealthy households were considerably more likely to report income losses and high stress levels than were wealthier households. Compared to a period just before the pandemic (January and February 2020), indicators measuring food security have significantly worsened. In April, households were less frequently consuming relatively more expensive but nutritionally richer foods, such as fruit and dairy products. However, overall food security status in Addis Ababa is not yet alarming, possibly because most households have used their savings to buffer food consumption. It is likely that these savings will not last for much longer, calling for a rapid scale-up of existing support programs.

Farmers’ grain storage and losses in Ethiopia: Measures and associates

While storage losses at the farm are often assumed to be an important contributor to presumed large postharvest losses in developing countries, reliable and representative data on these losses are often lacking. We study farmers’ storage decisions and self-reported storage losses for grains based on two large-scale household surveys conducted in major agricultural areas in Ethiopia. We show that a relatively large share of grain production is stored by farm households for own consumption and that storage technologies are rudimentary. Farmers’ self-reported storage losses amount to an average of 4 % of all grains stored and 2 % of total harvest. These storage losses differ significantly by socioeconomic variables and wealth, as well as by crop and humidity. We further see strong spatial heterogeneity in storage losses being significantly higher in southwest Ethiopia. Efforts to scale up the adoption of improved storage technologies to reduce storage losses at the farm level should consider these characteristics.

Household food consumption patterns in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Overweight and obesity are rising rapidly in Ethiopia's urban areas, constituting a major public health concern. Dietary choices can be one of the key drivers of adult body-weight. Using data collected from a large household survey in Addis Ababa, we provide a snapshot of dietary patterns in Ethiopia's largest urban area. We find that starchy staples (cereals, roots, and tubers) are prominent in household food baskets, taking up 25 percent of the food budget and providing more than 50 percent of consumed calories, on average. In contrast, the consumption of all kinds of fruits and vitamin A-rich vegetables is very low. For the average household, meat products account for nearly 18 percent of the food budget but provide only 2 percent of total calories. Richer households consume relatively less starchy staples than poorer households, but more animal-source foods and vegetables. However, the importance of fruits in household diets rises very slowly with household incomes. Together, these findings suggest that further income growth will result in drastic changes in the composition of food demand in Addis Ababa. Considering projections for increasing incomes, especially in urban areas, this will have major implications for agricultural production in rural areas connected to Ethiopia’s cities. There is also an urgent need to design cost-effective public health campaigns to reduce the emerging overweight and obesity crisis in urban Ethiopia.

Evaluation of the nutrition-sensitive features of the fourth phase of Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme

This study assesses progress in the implementation of the nutrition-sensitive interventions of the fourth phase of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP-4) and its impact on: (1) the pathways underpinning children’s nutritional status; and (2) the roles it plays in reducing the malign effect of seasonality on the nutritional status of women and pre-school children. The analysis is based on four rounds of household survey data, conducted in March and August 2017 (baseline) and March and August 2019 (endline). These surveys focused on households with a child less than 24 months of age (index child) and his/her mother (index mother). In 2017 and 2019, the survey teams visited more than 2,500 households in 264 kebeles in 88 PSNP woredas in the Amhara, Oromia, SNNP, and Tigray regions.

Coffee Value Chain Survey in Ethiopia: Producer/Household Survey

The coffee producer survey was conducted to study the coffee value chains in order to make recommendations to policymakers on how to improve the value chain to the benefit of farmers. The data collected in this survey helps to understand how the coffee value chains are transforming in terms of quality and demand of coffee, adoption of modern inputs in coffee farming, and farmers' access to input and services.

Teff Value Chain in Ethiopia: Producer/Household Survey

The producer/household survey was conducted to study teff value chains in order to make recommendations to policymakers on how to improve the value chain for farmers, wholesalers, retailers, and consumers in Ethiopia. The data collected in this survey helps to understand how the teff value chains are transforming in terms of quality and demand of teff, adoption of modern inputs in teff farming, farmers' access to inputs and services, their income and wealth among many other things.

Access to markets, weather risk, and livestock production decisions: Evidence from Ethiopia

Despite several studies showing the effect of access to markets and weather conditions on crop production, we know quite little on whether and how livestock production systems respond to variation in weather risk and access to markets. In this paper, we study whether and how livestock production responds to access to markets and varying weather risk. We also explore whether such responses vary across livelihood zones and livestock production systems. We study these research questions using information on the livestock production, ownership, and marketing decisions of households in Ethiopia. We find that households living close to markets are more likely to engage in market-oriented livestock production and use modern livestock inputs. We also find that households exposed to more unpredictable weather are less likely to engage in livestock production for markets. Rather, they are more likely to engage in livestock production for precautionary savings and insurance. Furthermore, greater rainfall uncertainty influences livestock portfolio allocation towards those types of livestock which can be easily liquidated, while also discouraging investment in modern livestock inputs. However, these responses and patterns vary across livelihood zones and production systems - most of these stylized responses and impacts are more pronounced in the arid and semi-arid lands of Ethiopia, where livestock herding remains a dominant source of livelihood. Those households relying only on livestock production seem more sensitive and responsive to weather risk and weather shocks. The heterogeneity in responses to and impacts of weather risk among farming systems and livelihoods highlights the need for more tailored livestock sector policies and interventions.

Rural Transport Survey in Ethiopia

This dataset was generated to assess the impact of market access on different socioeconomic indicators. The study focuses on Alefa woreda in the rugged terrain of northwestern Ethiopia just west of Lake Tana and approximately 100 kilometers from the city of Gonder. This is an isolated area with little to no electricity and mobile phone access and without any development or humanitarian assistance programs provided by non-governmental organizations. The sample area was chosen because the large variation in transportation costs over relatively short distances in the woreda allows to carefully assess the impact of these varying costs by comparing it with a situation of similar physical and climatic conditions. The survey took place shortly after the main cropping season (meher) harvest over a five-week period in November and December 2011, interviewing 850 households. The data collected includes household demographics, land and agricultural production, housing quality and household assets, input access, expenditures and consumption, and anthropometrics of mother and children among others.

Vegetable Value Chain Survey in Ethiopia: Producer/Household Survey

This vegetable producer survey was a part of a large-scale vegetable value chain survey which was conducted to understand how the vegetable value chain is transforming in terms of adoption of modern inputs, productivity, quality, and demand for vegetables in Ethiopia. The survey was conducted among 810 farmers. Information was collected on household characteristics, income-generating activities, assets, and details on vegetable activities.

Rural youth and employment in Ethiopia

Chapter 5 focuses on Ethiopia’s land constraints and asks if this is driving youth off the farm and into the rural nonfarm economy.

Consumption, production, market access and affordability of nutritious foods in the Afar Region of Ethiopia

Poor dietary quality is a significant risk factor for stunting and micronutrient deficiencies among young children and globally one of the leading causes of premature death and disease (Arimond & Ruel, 2004; Forouzanfar et al., 2015). Dietary quality is typically proxied by diversity of the consumed diet. Foods with similar nutritional qualities are first grouped together and dietary diversity is measured by the number of different food groups consumed in a certain time interval. For example, the World Health Organization recommends that children 6-23 months consume at least four food groups (out of seven) every day. Based on this metric, Ethiopian children in this age range consume one of the least diversified diets in sub-Saharan Africa (Hirvonen, 2016) with only 14 percent meeting the WHO recommendation (CSA & ICF, 2016). Recent analysis of the timing of growth faltering of young children suggests that poor complementary feeding practices, including poor dietary quality, is an important risk factor for stunting in Ethiopia (Hirvonen, Headey, Golan, & Hoddinott, 2019). The available evidence suggests that diets are monotonous also at the household level. For example, in 2011, the average Ethiopian household consumed only 42 kg of fruits and vegetables in a year per adult equivalent (Hassen Worku, Dereje, Minten, & Hirvonen, 2017) – far below the World Health Organization’s recommendation of 146 kg per year (Hall, Moore, Harper, & Lynch, 2009). This report is structured as follows. In the subsequent section, we describe the data used in this report. In section 3, we assess the consumption of nutritious foods among young children and also carry out a similar assessment at the household level. In section 4, we study the production of nutritious foods in the region. In section 5, we examine the availability of nutritious foods in rural markets. In section 6, we assess the affordability of nutritious foods in the region. Section 7 concludes and summarizes the findings.

Consumption, production, market access and affordability of nutritious foods in the Somali Region of Ethiopia

Poor dietary quality is a significant risk factor for stunting and micronutrient deficiencies among young children and globally one of the leading causes of premature death and disease (Arimond & Ruel, 2004; Forouzanfar et al., 2015). Dietary quality is typically proxied by diversity of the consumed diet. Foods with similar nutritional qualities are first grouped together and dietary diversity is measured by the number of different food groups consumed in a certain time interval. For example, the World Health Organization recommends that children 6-23 months consume at least from four food groups (out of seven) every day. Based on this metric, Ethiopian children in this age range consume one of the least diversified diets in sub-Saharan Africa (Hirvonen, 2016) with only 14 percent meeting the WHO recommendation (CSA & ICF, 2016). Recent analysis of the timing of growth faltering of young children suggests that poor complementary feeding practices, including poor dietary quality, is an important risk factor for stunting in Ethiopia (Hirvonen, Headey, Golan, & Hoddinott, 2019). The available evidence suggests that diets are monotonous also at the household level. For example, in 2011, the average Ethiopian household consumed only 42 kg of fruits and vegetables in a year per adult equivalent (Hassen Worku, Dereje, Minten, & Hirvonen, 2017) – far below the World Health Organization’s recommendation of 146 kg per year (Hall, Moore, Harper, & Lynch, 2009). This report is structured as follows. In the subsequent section we describe the data used this report. In section 3, we assess the consumption of nutritious foods among vulnerable groups: young children and mothers. In section 4, we assess the production of nutritious foods in the region. In section 5, we study the availability of nutritious foods in rural markets. In section 6, we assess the affordability of nutritious foods in the region. Section 7 concludes and summarizes the findings.

Consumption, production, market access and affordability of nutritious foods in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia

Poor dietary quality is a significant risk factor for stunting and micronutrient deficiencies among young children and globally one of the leading causes of premature death and disease (Arimond & Ruel, 2004; Forouzanfar et al., 2015). Dietary quality is typically proxied by diversity of the consumed diet. Foods with similar nutritional qualities are first grouped together and dietary diversity is measured by the number of different food groups consumed in a certain time interval. For example, the World Health Organization recommends that children 6-23 months consume at least from four food groups (out of seven) every day. Based on this metric, Ethiopian children in this age range consume one of the least diversified diets in sub-Saharan Africa (Hirvonen, 2016) with only 14 percent meeting the WHO recommendation (CSA & ICF, 2016). Recent analysis of the timing of growth faltering of young children suggests that poor complementary feeding practices, including poor dietary quality, is an important risk factor for stunting in Ethiopia (Hirvonen, Headey, Golan, & Hoddinott, 2019). The available evidence suggests that diets are monotonous also at the household level. For example, in 2011, the average Ethiopian household consumed only 42 kg of fruits and vegetables in a year per adult equivalent (Hassen Worku, Dereje, Minten, & Hirvonen, 2017) – far below the World Health Organization’s recommendation of 146 kg per year (Hall, Moore, Harper, & Lynch, 2009). This report is structured as follows. In the subsequent section, we describe the data used in this report. In section 3, we assess the consumption of nutritious foods among vulnerable groups: young children and mothers. In section 4, we assess the production of nutritious foods in the region. In section 5, we study the availability of nutritious foods in rural markets. In section 6, we assess the affordability of nutritious foods in the region. Section 7 concludes and summarizes the findings.

Consumption, production, market access and affordability of nutritious foods in the SNNPR Region of Ethiopia

Poor dietary quality is a significant risk factor for stunting and micronutrient deficiencies among young children and globally one of the leading causes of premature death and disease (Arimond & Ruel, 2004; Forouzanfar et al., 2015). Dietary quality is typically proxied by diversity of the consumed diet. Foods with similar nutritional qualities are first grouped together and dietary diversity is measured by the number of different food groups consumed in a certain time interval. For example, the World Health Organization recommends that children 6-23 months consume at least from four food groups (out of seven) every day. Based on this metric, Ethiopian children in this age range consume one of the least diversified diets in sub-Saharan Africa (Hirvonen, 2016) with only 14 percent meeting the WHO recommendation (CSA & ICF, 2016). Recent analysis of the timing of growth faltering of young children suggests that poor complementary feeding practices, including poor dietary quality, is an important risk factor for stunting in Ethiopia (Hirvonen, Headey, Golan, & Hoddinott, 2019). The available evidence suggests that diets are monotonous also at the household level. For example, in 2011, the average Ethiopian household consumed only 42 kg of fruits and vegetables in a year per adult equivalent (Hassen Worku, Dereje, Minten, & Hirvonen, 2017) – far below the World Health Organization’s recommendation of 146 kg per year (Hall, Moore, Harper, & Lynch, 2009). This report is structured as follows. In the subsequent section, we describe the data used in this report. In section 3, we assess the consumption of nutritious foods among vulnerable groups: young children and mothers. In section 4, we assess the production of nutritious foods in the region. In section 5, we study the availability of nutritious foods in rural markets. In section 6, we assess the affordability of nutritious foods in the region. Section 7 concludes and summarizes the findings.

Consumption, production, market access and affordability of nutritious foods in the Tigray Region of Ethiopia

Poor dietary quality is a significant risk factor for stunting and micronutrient deficiencies among young children and globally one of the leading causes of premature death and disease (Arimond & Ruel, 2004; Forouzanfar et al., 2015). Dietary quality is typically proxied by diversity of the consumed diet. Foods with similar nutritional qualities are first grouped together and dietary diversity is measured by the number of different food groups consumed in a certain time interval. For example, the World Health Organization recommends that children 6-23 months consume at least from four food groups (out of seven) every day. Based on this metric, Ethiopian children in this age range consume one of the least diversified diets in sub-Saharan Africa (Hirvonen, 2016) with only 14 percent meeting the WHO recommendation (CSA & ICF, 2016). Recent analysis of the timing of growth faltering of young children suggests that poor complementary feeding practices, including poor dietary quality, is an important risk factor for stunting in Ethiopia (Hirvonen, Headey, Golan, & Hoddinott, 2019). The available evidence suggests that diets are monotonous also at the household level. For example, in 2011, the average Ethiopian household consumed only 42 kg of fruits and vegetables in a year per adult equivalent (Hassen Worku, Dereje, Minten, & Hirvonen, 2017) – far below the World Health Organization’s recommendation of 146 kg per year (Hall, Moore, Harper, & Lynch, 2009). This report is structured as follows. In the subsequent section we describe the data used in this report. In section 3, we assess the consumption of nutritious foods among vulnerable groups: young children and mothers. In section 4, we assess the production of nutritious foods in the region. In section 5, we study the availability of nutritious foods in rural markets. In section 6, we assess the affordability of nutritious foods in the region. Section 7 concludes and summarizes the findings.

Consumption, production, market access and affordability of nutritious foods in the Oromia Region of Ethiopia

Poor dietary quality is a significant risk factor for stunting and micronutrient deficiencies among young children and globally one of the leading causes of premature death and disease (Arimond & Ruel, 2004; Forouzanfar et al., 2015). Dietary quality is typically proxied by diversity of the consumed diet. Foods with similar nutritional qualities are first grouped together and dietary diversity is measured by the number of different food groups consumed in a certain time interval. For example, the World Health Organization recommends that children 6-23 months consume at least from four food groups (out of seven) every day. Based on this metric, Ethiopian children in this age range consume one of the least diversified diets in sub-Saharan Africa (Hirvonen, 2016) with only 14 percent meeting the WHO recommendation (CSA & ICF, 2016). Recent analysis of the timing of growth faltering of young children suggests that poor complementary feeding practices, including poor dietary quality, is an important risk factor for stunting in Ethiopia (Hirvonen, Headey, Golan, & Hoddinott, 2019). The available evidence suggests that diets are monotonous also at the household level. For example, in 2011, the average Ethiopian household consumed only 42 kg of fruits and vegetables in a year per adult equivalent (Hassen Worku, Dereje, Minten, & Hirvonen, 2017) – far below the World Health Organization’s recommendation of 146 kg per year (Hall, Moore, Harper, & Lynch, 2009). This report is structured as follows. In the subsequent section, we describe the data used in this report. In section 3, we assess the consumption of nutritious foods among vulnerable groups: young children and mothers. In section 4, we assess the production of nutritious foods in the region. In section 5, we study the availability of nutritious foods in rural markets. In section 6, we assess the affordability of nutritious foods in the region. Section 7 concludes and summarizes the findings.

Cities, value chains, and dairy production in Ethiopia

This paper explores the spatial heterogeneity in dairy production in the highland production area around the capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa. We look at how urban proximity – defined as the travel time from the farm to the central market of Addis Ababa – affects the production decisions of Ethiopian dairy farmers. We sampled 870 households from the major rural production zones around Addis Ababa, where villages were stratified according to their distance to Addis Ababa. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find evidence of strong spatial heterogeneity in dairy milk productivity in Ethiopia. With each additional hour of travel time, the milk productivity per cow is reduced by almost 1 liter per day, a reduction by 26 percent on average. This spatial heterogeneity in milk productivity reflects a pronounced spatial variation in dairy production decisions (producing liquid milk or processed dairy products), the application of modern inputs, and marketing. When trying to disentangle the mechanisms through which urban proximity affects dairy productivity, we show that the effect of travel time mainly runs through farmers’ inclusion into ‘modern’ value chains and more specifically through their access to commercial milk buyers. This finding holds when we control for prices, indicating that access to commercial value chains are an important determinant of dairy productivity. However, as only a limited number of farmers now have access to such value chains in these settings, measures to make dairy value chains more inclusive to remote farmers can have important economic development benefits for them.

Synopsis: Geography of public service delivery in rural Ethiopia

Geography has been shown to be an important determinant of economic development. Remote areas tend to be poorer due to higher transaction costs for trade or inhospitable environments. In this study, we show that remote areas in rural Ethiopia are also disadvantaged in their access to public service delivery. Relying on large household surveys, we assessed the association between exposure to agriculture and health extension and two measures of remoteness: (1) the distance of service centers to district capitals; and (2) the distance of households to service centers (i.e., the last mile). We found that villages located farther away from district capitals were less likely to receive agricultural extension services than other villages. In contrast, exposure to health extension services did not vary across more and less connected villages. This difference between the two sectors could be due to the fact that more remote villages tend to have fewer agriculture extension workers who also put in fewer hours into their work than their peers. We did not find similar evidence in the health sector. Finally, for both sectors, we found that the last mile matters: more remote households within villages were less likely to receive both types of extension services.

Rising cereal prices in Ethiopia: An assessment and possible contributing factors

Nominal cereal prices in Ethiopia in July 2019 were significantly higher than the year before – maize prices had risen by 32 percent; sorghum by 39 percent; teff by 35 percent; and wheat by 2 percent. Moreover, there is anecdotal evidence that nominal cereal prices have increased rapidly since. A number of factors help explain this pattern: Overall inflation has been high both for food and non-food items. This general high inflation is linked to macro factors related to broad money and credit growth; overall changes in prices for inputs, labor, and transport have important impacts on production costs for agricultural products, thereby putting upward pressure on prices. However, controlling for inflation, real prices are close to average real prices over the last ten years, indicating little change in supply relative to demand; seasonality is important in Ethiopian cereal markets, with mostly higher prices in August and September, just before the new Meher harvest comes in. The current (September 2019) high prices for food are partly a seasonal phenomenon; there are no signs of increased real marketing costs. Nonetheless, given their importance for food security, close monitoring and assessments of the functioning of Ethiopia’s food markets remains necessary.