Discussion Papers

× When quality attributes of a product are not directly observable, third-party certification (TPC) enables buyers to purchase the quality they are most interested in and reward sellers accordingly. Beyond product characteristics, buyers’ use of TPC services also depends on market conditions. We study the introduction of TPC in typical smallholder-based agriculture value chains of low-income countries, where traders must aggregate products from many small-scale producers before selling in bulk to downstream processors, and where introduction of TPC services has oftentimes failed. We develop a theoretical model identifying how different market conditions affect traders’ choice to purchase quality-certified output from farmers. Using a purposefully designed lab-in-the-field experiment with rural wheat traders in Ethiopia, we find mixed support for the model’s prediction: traders’ willingness to specialize in certified output does increase with the share of certified wheat in the market, and this effect is stronger in larger markets. It, however, does not decrease with the quality of uncertified wheat in the market. We further analyze conditions where traders deviate from the theoretically optimal behavior and discuss implications for future research and public policies seeking to promote TPC in smallholder-based food value-chains.

× In rural settings, community leaders play important roles in mobilizing resources and delivering public goods and services. However, little is known about their attributes and incentives in delivering these public goods and services. Exploiting survey, lab-in-the-field experiment, and geo-referenced data, we study the role of leaders, especially women’s leadership, and their exposure to conflict in explaining differences in cooperation among com-munity leaders in Ethiopia. We measure cooperation through a public-good experiment and examine the implications of community leaders’ characteristics. We then merge these lab-in-the field experimental data with geo-referenced data on conflict exposure to examine the implication of different types of conflict on community leaders’ cooperation behavior. We find that female leaders contribute more to public goods than their male counterparts. For example, compared to those assuming the highest official administrative responsibility in the village, women leaders contribute about 11 percent more to the public good. We also document nuanced findings that reconcile existing mixed evidence on the implication of exposure to conflict on cooperation: while conflict events that affect the whole community, such as political violence (including battles) are associated with higher cooperation, other types of conflict (e.g., demonstrations and riots) are associated with lower levels of cooperation. Finally, we identify additional predictors of cooperation among community leaders, including beliefs about other leaders’ cooperative behavior. These findings shed light on potential avenues for facilitating and fostering cooperation among community leaders.

× Climate and weather shocks pose significant threats to crop-livestock systems, leading to economic losses and humanitarian crises. Utilizing a modeling framework that innovatively integrates the crop and livestock systems, this study examines the interactions and dynamic adjustments within these systems following weather shocks, using Ethiopia as a case study. We also evaluate the effectiveness of various adaptation strategies in sustaining farm incomes, food security, and welfare. Results show unique effects on the crop and livestock sectors resulting from a joint shock on the two systems. While food crops experience a strong and immediate growth effect that fades quickly, the livestock sector faces the full impact of the shock a year later, with the effect persisting to some degree. We also find diverging economic and livestock system adjustment trajectories from the separate shocks to the crop and livestock systems. Further, the intervention options analyzed show contrasting impacts on various outcome indications, with only the resilient crop intervention causing sector-indifferent impacts. Our findings emphasize the importance of proactive measures to enhance the resilience of crop-livestock systems, with implications for policy and practice aimed at safeguarding food security and livelihoods in semi-subsistence economies.

× Targeting is an important but challenging process in the design and delivery of social and humanitarian assistance programs. Community-based targeting (CBT) approaches are often preferred for their local information advantages, especially when data-driven methods are not feasible. However, how different variants of CBT approaches fare under various constraints and environments remains unclear. For example, it is not obvious whether agents involved in CBT maximize the number of beneficiaries or the intensity of transfers when given different levels of discretion or they face budget constraints. We implemented a clustered randomized control trial among community leaders in 180 villages in Ethiopia to evaluate how community leaders target and allocate resources when they face budget constraints and are in the presence (absence) of discretion. We find that under resource constraints, community leaders prefer to maximize the number of beneficiaries even at the expense of thinly spreading budgets (reducing average transfers to beneficiaries). Community leaders are keen to minimize exclusion errors even at the expense of increased inclusion errors, suggesting that community leaders may be sensitive to potential communal repercussions and hence prefer to accommodate beneficiaries who would otherwise be excluded based on survey-based measures and indicators of poverty. Consistent with this, we find that offering community leaders some level of discretion helps them reduce exclusion errors and include those most deprived or those affected by armed conflicts. Finally, we find that community leaders are more vulnerable to favoritism when real stakes (rather than hypothetical) are involved, budgets are relatively larger, and they lack discretion. We offer nuanced evidence about the implications of implementing CBT designs in the absence of incentives for community leaders to reveal how they use local information.

× International food prices have become increasingly volatile in recent decades, with “global food crises” in 2008, 2011 and most recently in 2022. The 2008 crisis prompted international agencies to ambitiously extend their monitoring of domestic food prices in developing countries to strengthen early warning systems and food and nutrition surveillance. However, food inflation by itself is not sufficient for measuring disposable income or food affordability; for that, one must measure either changes in income or changes in an income proxy. Here we propose the use of a low-cost income proxy that can be monitored at the same high frequency and spatial granularity as food prices: the wages of poor unskilled workers. While not all poor people are unskilled wage earners, changes in the real “reservation wages” of low skilled activities are likely to be highly predictive of changes in disposable income for poorer segments of society (Deaton and Dreze 2002). We demonstrate this by estimating changes in “food wages” – wages deflated food price indices – during well-documented food price crises in Ethiopia (2008, 2011 and 2022), Sri Lanka (2022) and Myanmar (2022). In all these instances, food wages declined by 20-30%, often in the space of a few months. Moreover, in Myanmar we use a household panel survey data to show that the decline in food wages over the course of 2022 closely matches estimate declines in household disposable income and proportional increases in income-based poverty. We argue that the affordability of nutritious food for “all people, at all times” is a critically important dimension of food security, and we advocate for monitoring the wages of the poor as a cheap and accurate means of capturing that dimension.

× The goal of this study is to assess the potential of game-based experiential learning in raising awareness and stimulating discussions about groundwater resource systems, the social dilemma in groundwater management, and the need for institutional arrangements (rules) governing this shared resource, as well as whether such awareness and community discussions lead to actual change in groundwater governance in Ethiopia. Groundwater management is highly complex, with many users sharing the same resource often without realizing their interconnectedness. Behavioral experiments (games) that simulate real-life common-pool resource use have shown promise as an experiential learning tool for improving resource governance. This study pilots an experiential learning intervention in Ethiopia using a groundwater gameto help raise awareness of groundwater over-extraction and improve understanding of the importance of collective action in governance. The Meki River catchment in rural Ethiopia is a unique context where small-scale irrigation is expanding, but overextraction and competition over groundwater have not yet reached alarming levels. The groundwater game, adapted from Meinzen-Dick et al. (2016 and 2018), was played in 15 villages, accompanied by community-wide debriefing discussions in each village after the game to reflect on the process and lessons learned, and to stimulate discussions around groundwater governance. We carried out participant surveys to capture individual mental models regarding groundwater use and management, as well as any immediate learning effects. Focus group discussions were held in each village prior to the intervention to establish a baseline and again six months after the intervention to assess possible lasting effects. The findings indicate cognitive, normative and relational learning, including increased understanding of groundwater dynamics (such as the joint effect of diverse water uses and users), the importance of collective action in resource management, and the benefits of communication. We find gendered differences in decision-making about resource extraction in the game and evolvement of group-level resource management across no-communication, communication, and rule-making rounds of the game. We discuss community-wide learning and institutions-building, and considerations for future intervention designs. We recommend embedding experiential learning, facilitated by local extension officers or other community engagement practitioners, in intervention packages that include both technical assistance on water-conserving technologies and management approaches and support in building communities’ institutional capacity.

× Agricultural and food policies are increasingly asked to do more to improve the dietary quality of populations in lower and middle income countries (LMICs), especially severely malnourished rural populations. However, the appropriate strategy for improving diet quality remains an open question. Agriculture has traditionally focused on food security and poverty reduction, mostly through investments in staple crops, while social protection programs have also sought to improve diets through poverty reduction. Nutrition-sensitive agriculture programs traditionally emphasize farm-level diversification into nutrient-dense crops and/or livestock, combined with nutrition education. More recently, some researchers have moved beyond the farm to assessthe role of market access and local food environments more generally, though little research has focused on food environments in rural Africa. In this study we explore the determinants of a new and improved measure of household diet deprivation(s) that measure consumption gaps for diets as a whole as well as gaps for individual food groups. Using national datasets for rural Nigeria, Ethiopia and Tanzania, we conduct a “racehorse” regression analysis that reveals strong support for the role of wealth in reducing dietary deprivation, evidence that livestock diversification is important but not crop diversification, and indications that local farming systems are also strongly associated with dietary outcomes, but market access indicators are not. While more research is needed, we conclude that the evidence supports strategies that combine income/wealth enhancement objectives with livestock diversification where possible. Evidence on the linkages between food environments and diet quality in rural areas of LMICs is currently too limited and warrants further research of the observational and experimental variety.

× Mobile phones are rapidly being adopted in less developed countries, with widely acknowledged commensurate socio-economic benefits, including United Nations SDGs advocating for increased ownership of mobile phones to promote women’s empowerment. While overall mobile phone ownership is rising quickly in Ethiopia, it is lagging for rural women, particularly married rural women. Overall, we find that married men are approximately five times more likely to own a phone than their wives even though married women with phones are more active in agricultural decision making. This lack of female mobile phone ownership should be considered within the broader context of several recent Ethiopian digital initiatives, including mobile banking and mobile payments. These initiatives are likely to provide greater benefits to those individuals that own a mobile phone. By applying gender analysis to phone ownership, we believe that we can anticipate some potentially unexpected negative consequences for women created by these mobile phone initiatives. This paper outlines current rural sex-disaggregated phone ownership trends, determinants of phone ownership, and related impacts on intrahousehold decision making. We believe that by identifying these gender differences in mobile phone ownership, policymakers can better target their digital economy initiatives.

× In recent years, a growing literature has examined the potential of multifaceted, intensive “graduation model” interventions that simultaneously address multiple barriers constraining households’ exit from poverty. In this paper, we present new evidence from a randomized trial of a lighter-touch graduation model implemented in rural Ethiopia. The primary experimental arms are a bundled intervention including a productive transfer valued at $374 (randomly assigned to be cash or an equivalent value in poultry), training, and savings groups; a simpler intervention including training and savings groups only; and a control arm. We find that three years post-baseline, the intervention inclusive of the transfer leads to some increases in assets, savings, and cash income from livestock, though there is no shift in consumption or household food security; these effects are consistent regardless of the modality of the transfer (cash versus poultry). The effects of training and savings groups alone are minimal.

× We study the role of a multifaceted ultra-poor graduation program in protecting household wellbeing and women’s welfare from the effects of localized droughts in Ethiopia. We use data from a large experimental trial of an integrated livelihood and nutrition intervention that supplemented the consumption support provided by Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), conducted within a sample in which all households were beneficiaries of the PSNP. We match three rounds of household survey data to detailed satellite weather data to identify community-level exposure to droughts. We then exploit random assignment to the graduation program to evaluate whether exposed households show heterogeneous effects of drought on household food security and livestock holdings, women’s diets and nutritional status, and prevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV). We find that droughts have substantial negative effects on these outcomes, but the intervention serves to consistently moderate these effects, and for some outcomes (particularly diets and nutrition and IPV), the intervention fully protects households from any adverse drought affects. A further analysis exploits variation across treatment arms that received different program elements and suggests that the primary mechanism is enhanced household savings.

× We explore the impact of different models of scalable nutrition services embedded within a light-touch graduation program, implemented at scale in Ethiopia. The graduation program provided poor households enrolled in Ethiopia’s national safety net, the Protective Safety Net Program (PSNP), with additional livelihood programming including savings groups, business skills training and linkages to financial services. In addition, extremely poor households received a one-time livelihood grant on an experimental basis, as cash transfers or in-kind poultry grants, at a value much smaller than lump sum transfers in other graduation model programs in recent literature. The experiment compared a core nutrition model of nutrition information and sanitation and hygiene activities to an enhanced model that added more intensive nutrition messaging, supplementary feeding of malnourished children, mental health services, and a male engagement activity. Results show that interaction with health care workers and participation in community health activities increased significantly under the enhanced nutrition model, as did maternal nutritional knowledge. Nevertheless, neither nutrition model led to significant improvements in child dietary diversity or anthropometric outcomes on average. However, cash livelihood grants combined with the enhanced nutrition model reduced childhood stunting.

× Graduation model interventions seek to address multiple barriers constraining households’ exit from poverty, however, few explicitly target unequal gender norms. Using a randomized control trial design, combined with three rounds of data, we investigate the impacts on gender equitable attitudes and behaviors of a graduation program that seeks to simultaneously “push” households out of poverty and improve unequal gender norms in Ethiopia. We find that at midline all treatment arms lead to improvements in men’s gender equitable attitudes and their engagement in household domestic tasks as reported by both men and women; but at endline, impacts are only sustained in the treatment arms that introduced men’s engagement groups after the midline survey to further promote improvements in equitable gender norms.

× The Ethiopian economy relies predominantly on rainfed agriculture for income generation, export earnings, and rural livelihoods. However, the frequency and intensity of extreme ago-climatic events projected by climate scenarios suggest considerable and growing risks from climate change to the country’s agri-food systems and the overall economy. This study assesses the economic impacts of recurrent climate shocks on the Ethiopian economy to 2040. The results indicate that recurrent climate shocks will lead to a reduction in Ethiopia's cumulative GDP from 2020 to 2040 compared to a “no climate change” baseline. Specifically, extreme weather events could cumulatively cost Ethiopia up to 17 percent (or US$ 534.3 billion) in GDP between 2020 and 2040 compared to a no-climate change baseline. The weight of the economic loss is concentrated in the agricultural production sector, with rural households and poorer households in urban areas being worst affected. Strategic investments in irrigation infrastructure and in hydroelectricity generation are found to be effective in mitigating some of the damage caused by recurrent climate variability.

× Much has been written about energy poverty, but there is relatively limited evidence of what determines the gender gap in energy poverty and how it can be overcome in rural areas. This study used Focus Group Discussions, in-depth interviews with farmers and Key Informant Interviews to analyze gendered information, access, adoption and use of rural energy technologies in the domestic and productive spheres. We find striking differences in how men and women adopt and use energy technologies in both spheres. Substantial asymmetries exist between women and men regarding knowledge of energy technologies, as most information about them is directed to men in the household. Even so, women are typically the primary decision-makers regarding energy technology adoption for domestic use, while men dominate decision-processes in the productive energy technology space. Women remain largely excluded from the adoption and use of agricultural energy technologies, even though they are heavily engaged in agricultural production systems. Our study highlights the need for tailored mechanisms that reach women with information on and means to acquire energy technologies as well as changes in gendered norms to ensure that women benefit equally from their use.

× Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a major worldwide health challenge, and addressing this challenge requires high-quality data. This analysis uses a large-scale survey of 5,033 households in rural Ethiopia in which both men and women were surveyed about past-year IPV in order to quantify the degree of discordance, including both husband only reporting and wife only reporting, for multiple forms of IPV (emotional, physical and sexual). In addition, logistic regression is employed to analyze the effects of demographic characteristics and individual norms and behaviors on the probability of discordant reporting. The results suggest that almost half of households (44%) are characterized by discordant reporting in at least one dimension of IPV. Given the high level of discordance, 61.4% of households report any physical and/or sexual IPV using the household-level measure, compared to a rate of 41.9% from the women’s data only. In addition, men who report more gender-equitable attitudes and behaviors (failing to concur with justifications for IPV, reporting higher support for gender equitable norms, and reporting a higher level of female engagement in decision-making and intrahousehold task-sharing) are more likely to be members of wife only reporting households: i.e., they are less likely to report perpetration of IPV. Women who report more gender-equitable attitudes and behaviors, by contrast, are more likely to be members of husband only reporting households.

× Smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is commonly characterized by high levels of technical inefficiency. However, much of this characterization relies on self-reported input and production data, which are prone to systematic measurement error. We theoretically show that non-classical measurement error introduces multiple identification challenges and sources of bias in estimating smallholders’ technical inefficiency. We then empirically examine the implications of measurement error for the estimation of technical inefficiency using smallholder farm survey data from Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. We find that measurement error in agricultural input and production data leads to a substantial upward bias in technical inefficiency estimates (by up to 85 percent for some farmers). Our results suggest that existing estimates of technical efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa may be severe underestimates of smallholders’ actual efficiency and what is commonly attributed to farmer inefficiency may be an artifact of mismeasurement in agricultural data. Our results raise questions about the received wisdom on African smallholders’ production efficiency and prior estimates of the productivity of agricultural inputs. Improving the measurement of agricultural data can improve our understanding of smallholders’ production efficiencies and improve the targeting of productivity-enhancing technologies.

× In many Sub-Saharan countries, farmers cannot meet the growing urban demand for higher quality products, leading to increasing dependency on imports. While the literature has focused on production-side constraints to enhancing smallholder farmers’ output quality, there is scarce evidence of market-side constraints. Using a unique sample of 60 wheat markets in Ethiopia, I examine the relationship between the price obtained by farmers and the quality supplied. Using objective and precise measures of observable (impurity content) and unobservable (flour extraction rate and moisture level) quality attributes, no evidence was found of a strong correlation between the two, suggesting that observable attributes cannot serve as proxies for unobservable ones. Transaction prices further reflect this, indicating that, markets only reward quality attributes that are observable at no cost. However, these results hide cross-market heterogeneity. Observable quality attributes are better rewarded in larger and more competitive markets, while unobservable attributes are rewarded in the presence of grain millers and/or farmer cooperatives on the market site. Both regression and machine learning approaches support these findings.

× Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a large-scale civil war that has continued for more than a year. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) data, which spans several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides fresh evidence on the ex durante impacts of the conflict on the food security and livelihood activities of affected households. We use difference-in-differences estimation to compare trends in the outcomes of interest across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the civil war. Seven months into the conflict, we find that the outbreak of the civil war increased the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity by 38 percentage points. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) on households’ exposure to violent conflict, we show that exposure to one additional battle leads to 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. The conflict has reduced households’ access to food through supply chain disruptions while also curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage related activities were the most affected by the conflict while farming activities were relatively more resilient. Similarly, economic activities in urban areas were much more affected than those in rural areas. These substantial impact estimates, which are likely to be underestimates of the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence on the near-real-time impacts of an on-going civil conflict, providing direct evidence on how violent conflict disrupts the functioning of market supply chains and livelihoods activities. Our work highlights the potential of HFPS to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available.

× This paper compares the empowerment impacts of the UN Joint Program for Rural Women’s Economic Empowerment (JP RWEE) in Ethiopia, Niger, Nepal, and Kyrgyzstan using the Abbreviated Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (A-WEAI). We assess the extent of empowerment and gender parity, and decompose the sources of disempowerment, separately for men and women and for beneficiary and control groups. We then estimate program impacts on A-WEAI and its component indicators and assess whether estimated impacts are consistent with the activities implemented by the program. We interpret the quantitative results in the light of the qualitative studies undertaken as part of the impact evaluation. Despite the diversity in country and cultural contexts, in all four countries, women are more disempowered than men, although large proportions of men are themselves disempowered. Excessive workload is the most common major contributor to disempowerment, and so is lack of group membership. The program had positive impacts on aggregate empowerment measures for program participants in Niger, Nepal, and Kyrgyzstan. Nevertheless, gender parity improved only in Nepal. The group-based approach was a clear contributor to women’s empowerment in Ethiopia, Nepal, and Kyrgyzstan. In Kyrgyzstan, the GALS/BALI approach contributed to impacts across almost all indicators of empowerment. The positive impact of GALS and GALS/BALI on men and women alike in Kyrgyzstan is consistent with emerging evidence that involving both men and women in gender transformative approaches, rather than focusing on women alone, may be key to effective and sustainable programs. Although impacts on time use were insignificant in the quantitative study, the qualitative work pointed out negative impacts, emphasizing the unintended consequences of increased workload for women who participate in livelihood interventions.

× Lake Beseka is a shallow, saline, endorheic lake in the East African Rift Valley of Ethiopia that has dramatically grown in size due to large-scale irrigation development in its catchment area. Recent artificial connections of the lake with the Awash River system to contain lake size have led to a series of changes and impacts on different water users, but are not reflected in lake and Awash River governance and institutions. Understanding who are the key actors affecting Lake Beseka and strengthening their linkages can help identify solutions that sustainably contain or reduce the lake’s size, improve its water quality, and address costs to nearby and downstream populations as well as the environment. Thus, this study analyzed qualitative data collected from net-mapping – a network analysis that identifies actors or stakeholders as well as linkages and relative power positions among stakeholders. The resulting network reflects the complexity of the water governance system including upstream actors who affect the size and quality of the lake as well as downstream actors who suffer from adverse consequences. The Awash Basin Development Authority, Metehara Sugar Factory, regional bureaus, and federal ministries were identified as the most influential actors affecting how Lake Beseka is used and managed. Actors most affected by the lake expansion and quality problems such as downstream communities currently have no role in the governance of the lake. Metehara Municipality, woreda offices, research institutes, and farmers were considered to have moderate influence. Stakeholders who participated in the net-mapping workshops identified flooding, salinity, water-related conflict, and health effects as the four main challenges of the lake. The study suggests that developing multi-stakeholder partnerships or platforms across most influential and most affected actors could support a more comprehensive understanding of the multiple challenges Lake Beseka is posing. It could also foster the development of more integrated solutions that support the different stakeholders in the lake catchment area and the Awash River Basin.

× We investigate whether a large-scale watershed program promoting sustainable land management (SLM) in Ethiopia increases adoption of SLM and its benefits on plots owned by women in male-headed households compared to plots owned by their spouses, jointly owned plots as well as plots of female headed households (FHH). The analysis is based on a survey of 500 households and 2900 plots conducted in the Abbay basin of Ethiopia where the SLM program was implemented between 2012 and 2017. Our findings show that the SLM program significantly increased adoption of SLM practices (soil bunds, stone terraces, mulching) in male-headed households but that adoption was centered on jointly owned plots and male-owned plots, with no significant adoption on women-owned plots. The results also show that women in male-headed households are more constrained to participate in SLM programs compared to their counterparts in FHH. Results further show that although FHH were less likely than male-headed households to adopt SLM in watersheds with no SLM interventions, the SLM program significantly increased adoption of soil bunds on plots in FHH. SLM adoption and impacts can likely be further strengthened if a focus on removing women’s constraints is added.

× Over the last decade, Ethiopia has had one of the fastest growing economies in the world with annual growth rates averaging approximately 9.2% and 5.3% for the overall economy and the agricultural sector, respectively. Concomitant with this growth has been falling poverty rates and slightly rising inequality. While average growth has been strong, relatively little research has been performed on mobility within income quartiles, particularly among rural households. Using a panel of 1,899 households, taken from three rural household surveys carried out between 2012-2019, this paper explores the overall levels and trends of recent income mobility in rural Ethiopia. We conclude that female headed households, at the lower asset quartiles, are earning less income, marketing a smaller share of cereal crops, and experiencing less growth which, unlike comparable male headed households in lower quartiles, is leading to relative stagnation, and rising inequality. The implications for policymakers are important for improved targeting for pro-poor growth strategies as well as a better understanding of the heterogenous economic status of female headed households in rural Ethiopia more generally.

× Ethiopia has made substantial efforts in the last three decades to increase agricultural productivity through modern input intensification and stimulate overall economic growth. Despite the high growth rates in recent decade, Ethiopia’s overall intensification and yield levels remained below what is considered optimal. This study examines the patterns, trends, and drivers of agricultural intensification and productivity growth during the recent decade (2012 - 2019) using three rounds of representative household data collected from the four main agriculturally important regions of the country. The descriptive results indicate a positive trend in both the adoption rate and intensity of inputs and output, albeit from a low base compared to other contexts and with considerable heterogeneity by access to information, rainfall levels and variability, labor, soil quality, remoteness, among others. The econometric results show significant association between intensification, yield growth, household dietary diversity (a proxy measure for food and nutrition security), and consumer durables. However, the results on the association between current yield levels and per capita consumption expenditures are mixed (i.e., while an increase in cereal yield only improve food consumption expenditures, an increase in cash crops yield mainly improve non-food consumption expenditures). In sum, while the increasing input intensification and the resulting yield gains are associated with improvement in household diets and consumer durables, it falls short to have strong impact on incomes (as measured by total consumption expenditures), indicating that more efforts have to be made to see meaningful impacts on higher order outcomes. Additional welfare improving productivity gains through increased input intensifications may require investments to put in place appropriate fertilizer blends linked with localized soil nutrient requirements, investments to generate locally suited improved seeds and appropriate mechanisms to reach farmers, ways to mitigate production (rainfall) risk, and investments to remodel Ethiopia’s extension system to provided much needed technical support to farmers on production methods.

× Agricultural commercialization is often pursued as an important driver of agricultural transformation in low-income countries. However, the implications it can have on gendered outcomes are less understood. While agricultural commercialization creates opportunities to increase income, this may come at the expense of change in women’s decision-making agency and control over resources. Understanding the interactions between agricultural commercialization and gender outcomes is thus critical for policymakers aspiring to achieve agricultural transformation while promoting gender equity and the evidence on the links between the two in the context of Africa is scarce and mixed. We use three rounds of Ethiopia’s and Nigeria’s LSMS-ISA panel data to understand the implications of agricultural commercialization to gendered decision-making on crop harvest use, marketing, revenue control, asset ownership, and intrahousehold budget allocation. Results indicate commercialization is associated with decreases in women’s participation in decision-making related to use of harvest, crop marketing, and control over revenue in Ethiopia, but only on harvest use and control over revenue in Nigeria. The association with land ownership is mixed: positive in Ethiopia but negative in Nigeria. Moreover, commercialization is associated with decreases in women’s share of farm-workload but with increases in share of hired labor in Ethiopia. In Ethiopia we also find women’s control over revenue is positively associated with increases in per capita consumption expenditures and dietary diversity, but men’s control is negatively associated with increases in the share of expenditure on children’s shoes and clothes. In Nigeria, women’s control is positively associated with increases in the share of expenditure on women’s shoes and clothes, food gap, and dietary diversity. In sum, we find suggestive evidence that commercialization may further marginalize women’s decision-making agency in Ethiopia and Nigeria. However, conditional on women’s control over proceeds, commercialization tends to improve women’s as well as other members’ welfare. We provide some policy recommendations and directions for future research.

× Increased diversification of rural households into the rural non-farm economy is an important driver of economic growth and structural transformation in countries like Ethiopia where the vast majority of people live in rural areas and are largely dependent on seasonal agriculture. Some of the benefits of diversification include efficient utilization of asset endowments (e.g., labor during dry season) and reduction of risks. In this study we explore the: (i) patterns and trends of diversification, (ii) drivers of diversification including the association between rainfall risk/shocks and diversification, and (iii) welfare effects of diversification during the recent decade using three rounds of representative household data from the four main regions of Ethiopia. We used Cragg’s double-hurdle model, a method that considers the two-step decision making process in diversification (i.e., participation and extent of participation), to identify the determinants of diversification and a fixed-effect and instrumental variable (IV) approaches to understand the links between diversification and household welfare. The descriptive results show that rural households generally adopt a livelihood strategy dominated by farming and that the level of diversification has been stagnant over the period of analysis considered. More importantly, the vast majority of households continue to draw a substantial share of their income from crop production, followed by livestock. The income from non-farm activities accounts only between 17 percent and 23 percent of the total income. The econometrics results show that diversification is positively associated with credit access, membership in social insurance, ownership of mobile phone, relative measure of household wealth, and population density. Conversely, access to relatively large, fertile, and irrigable land discourages diversification into non-farm activities. The analysis on the association between rainfall risks and diversification indicates that rural households use income diversification both as risk mitigation and shock coping strategy. The results on the link between income diversification and household welfare indicate a positive association between diversification and household total consumption expenditure, dietary diversity score, and housing/roof quality. In sum, the results imply the need for a deliberate effort to expand the non-farm economy so as to tap its full potential for employment generation, income growth, and welfare improvements. A starting point could be for agricultural and rural development policies and investments to go beyond promotion of cereal crop production and facilitate participation in high value crop, livestock, aquaculture production. Incentivizing investments in value addition activities that can create and enrich upward and downward linkages in the midstream segment of agricultural value chains is another potential avenue to boost rural non-farm economy.

× Climate change forecasts for Ethiopia predict higher temperature and rainfall and increased variability in rainfall with periodic severe droughts and floods. The increased weather variability threatens the extent of Ethiopia’s agricultural transformation unless it is supported with improved agricultural water management such as irrigation to make smallholder farming resilient to adverse weather events. This study analyzes the role of irrigation on agricultural transformation in Ethiopia by systematically comparing households with irrigated and non-irrigated plots on key agricultural transformation and welfare indictors (i.e., intensification, commercialization, and consumption expenditures). The study used a representative data from the four main agriculturally important regions of the country and employed an endogenous switching regression approach that addresses potential biases from placement of irrigation schemes and the self-selection of farmers to adopt irrigation on their plots. This approach allows for counterfactual analysis on the effect of irrigation if it is adopted on plots or in households without current irrigation as well as the counterfactual realizations of outcome variables if irrigated plots were not irrigated or irrigating households were relying only on rainfed agriculture. The main results show a positive and significant effects of irrigation on intensification, commercialization, and household welfare. Specifically, the results show that farm households with irrigated plots (i) use more fertilizer and agrochemicals, (ii) sell sizable shares of their harvest, and (iii) spend more on food and non-food expenditures. The counterfactual analysis on what would have been the effect of irrigation on currently non-irrigated plots indicate a stronger result across our outcome indicators which further suggest the importance of expanding irrigation in accelerating agricultural transformation and welfare improvement in Ethiopia.

× Agricultural transformation refers to a series of changes in agriculture that both reflect and drive rising income and economic development more broadly. While the macroeconomic patterns of agricultural transformation are relatively well documented, less is known about how it is manifested at the household level. Ethiopia makes an excellent case study as it has had one of the fastest growing economies in the world. This paper focuses on one aspect of this process: agricultural commercialization, that is, the process through which an increasing share of agricultural output is sold on the market rather than being consumed at home. The analysis uses three nationally representative rural household surveys carried out in 2012, 2016, and 2019, including a panel of 1,900 households. The results show that the share of marketed agricultural output has increased significantly over the seven-year period. Somewhat surprisingly, this increase is not due to a shift in crop mix toward more commercial crops but rather an increase in the degree of commercialization of each crop. Using a correlated random effects model, we find marketed share to be significantly related to age of the head of household, farm size, wealth, distance to road, rainfall, rainfall variability, and region. Although endogeneity is a challenge, descriptive statistics and regression analysis further suggest that agricultural commercialization contributes to higher income, largely because commercial crops generate higher returns per hectare than staple grains. The results indicate that there is no clear line between “subsistence” and “commercial” farms. A large majority of farms have some crop sales, while virtually none of them sell all their output. Similarly, the contrast between subsistence crops and cash crops can be misleading. For example, the value of staple cereal sales in Ethiopia is almost three times greater than that of coffee, the main cash crop. We draw lessons from the results for the design of programs to raise rural incomes by facilitating market-oriented agricultural production.

× Several factors contribute to the low level of improved variety use in Ethiopia. Among those, on the supply side, is the limited availability of seed in the volumes, quality, and timeliness required by farmers, which is partly a result of limited public and private investment in the sector. Beginning in 2011, the Government of Ethiopia introduced a novel experiment-the Direct Seed Marketing (DSM) approach-to reduce some of the centralized, state-run attributes of the country’s seed market and rationalize the use of public resources. DSM was designed to incentivize private and public seed producers to sell seed directly to farmers rather than through the state apparatus. This study is the first quantitative evaluation of DSM’s impact on indicators of a healthy seed system: access to quality seeds, on-farm productivity, and market participation of smallholders. Using a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach, the study finds that DSM led to a 26 percent increase in maize yields and a 5 percent increase in the share of maize harvest sold. DSM also led to improvements in seed availability for all three of Ethiopia’s major cereals: maize, wheat, and teff. However, DSM’s effects on yields and share of harvest sold are not statistically significant for wheat and teff. These crop-specific differences in performance are likely explainable by biological differences between hybrid maize and openly pollinated varieties of wheat and teff that incentivize private sector participation in maize seed markets over wheat and teff seed markets. These differences demand different policies and perhaps even institutional approaches to accelerating adoption between hybrids and OPVs.

× The herd dynamics model (HDM) component of the Linked Economic and Animal Systems (LEAS) model specifically documented here is developed in the context of the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Livestock Systems financed by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and managed by the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Animal Sciences. The main objective of this project is to develop a comprehensive analytical approach or systems model capable of assessing (i) how animal herd or flock sizes change over time and in response to on-farm policies; (ii) how alternative national trends and policies affect future development of the livestock system as a whole; (iii) how changes in livestock policies affect people working throughout the livestock system; and (iv) how changes in animal-source food (ASF) production and prices affect the real incomes and consumption patterns of different population groups. The HDM developed provides a highly detailed description of the cattle sector while laying a framework that can be easily adapted to other types of livestock. The model allows one to closely examine the performance of the livestock sector disaggregated by agroecology zones or regions. The HDM is linked both ways with a core economywide model through economic variables such as relative prices of livestock activities, prices and availability of intermediate inputs including feed, and changes in supply of livestock capital in the meat and milk production sectors. Given the complex interplay in the livestock sector such as offtake decisions, death rates, milk and meat yield, and feeding practices (through quality indexed feed demand), the HDM developed under this project is a fully dynamic livestock sector model that provides several avenues for policy analysis on livestock management, the sector’s future trajectory, and its dynamics, given risks and opportunities within the sector and beyond.

× The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred interest in the use of remote data collection techniques, including phone surveys, in developing country contexts. This interest has sparked new methodological work focusing on the advantages and disadvantages of different forms of remote data collection, the use of incentives to increase response rates and how to address sample representativeness. By contrast, attention given to associated response fatigue and its implications remains limited. To assess this, we designed and implemented an experiment that randomized the placement of a survey module on women’s dietary diversity in the survey instrument. We also examine potential differential vulnerabilities to fatigue across food groups and respondents. We find that delaying the timing of mothers’ food consumption module by 15 minutes leads to 8-17 percent decrease in the dietary diversity score and a 28 percent decrease in the number of mothers who consumed a minimum of four dietary groups. This is driven by underreporting of infrequently consumed foods; the experimentally induced delay in the timing of mothers’ food consumption module led to a 40 and 11 percent decrease in the reporting of consumption of animal source foods, and fruits and vegetables, respectively. Our results are robust to changes in model specification and pass falsification tests. Responses by older and less educated mothers and those from larger households are more vulnerable to measurement error due to fatigue.

× Recent growth accelerations in Africa are characterized by increasing productivity in agriculture, a declining share of the labor force employed in agriculture and declining productivity in modern sectors such as manufacturing. To shed light on this puzzle, we disaggregate firms in the manufacturing sector by size using two newly created panels of manufacturing firms, one for Tanzania covering 2008-2016 and one for Ethiopia covering 1996-2017. Our analysis reveals a dichotomy between larger firms that exhibit superior productivity performance but do not expand employment much, and small firms that absorb employment but do not experience any productivity growth. We suggest the poor employment performance of large firms is related to use of capital-intensive techniques associated with global trends in technology.

× To address malnutrition in low- and middle income countries (LMICs), more evidence is needed about the potential of food system innovations to help guide the transformation towards healthier, more sustainable, and equitable food systems. This paper reviews the literature on food system innovations in the food environment and addressing consumer behavior on diet and nutrition-related outcomes in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Viet Nam, and other LMICs, then highlights promising innovations and demonstrates gaps in the literature. In the food environment, promising innovations include nutrition-relevant multi-sectoral national policy backed by effective implementation; institutional purchasing offering healthy meals in school or factory environments; compulsory nutrition labelling; and fortified foods, if these can be durably offered or viably commercialised. Promising innovations influencing consumer behavior include unhealthy food taxes; large-scale information campaigns raising awareness about specific unhealthy food items; and campaigns that provide information and/or fortified food (supplements) to address nutrition of infants and young children. Promoting women’s empowerment and targeting women with nutrition information could be effective food system innovations addressing consumer behavior, but deliberation is needed about risks of emphasizing the instrumental role of gender equity and women’s empowerment for nutrition or reinforcing gender roles and increasing women’s responsibilities. That said, our review also demonstrates a general lack of evidence on most types of food system innovations in the four primary countries of study. More evidence is needed on several types of food systems innovations before definitive advice can be given on guiding food systems transformations towards healthier diet outcomes. This review therefore acts as a starting point for addressing country-specific food system challenges and identifies needs for further research.

× Coffee is Ethiopia’s most important export commodity, cultivated by over 6 million smallholder farmers in the country, and accounting for about one-third of the country’s commodity exports. While coffee production has increased over the last decade, coffee yields are low and several constraints to improved productivity remain. With two-three decades old and low-yielding coffee trees in particular, the sector cannot attain its full potential. In this paper, we assess the short-term impact of a coffee tree rejuvenation training program in Sidama on adoption rate and intensity of stumping – currently the best practice to revitalize ageing coffee trees and substantially improve their productivity. Using baseline and follow-up data and a difference-in-difference approach, we find that the adoption rate and intensity of stumping has increased by about threefold during the first year of the rejuvenation training intervention.

× Lack of accurate information about soil nutrient requirements coupled with limited access to appropriate fertilizers could lead to mismatch between soil nutrient requirements and fertilizer applications. Such anomalies and mismatches are likely to have important implications for agricultural productivity. In this paper we use experimental (spectral soil analysis) data from Ethiopia to examine farmers’ response to soil nutrient deficiencies and its implications for yield responses. We find that farmers’ response to macronutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) deficiencies is not always consistent with agronomic recommendations. For instance, we find that farmers in our sample are applying nitrogen fertilizers to soils lacking phosphorus, potentially due to lack of information on soil nutrient deficiencies or lack of access to appropriate fertilizers in rural markets. On the other hand, farmers respond to perceivably poor-quality soils and acidic soils by applying higher amount of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers per unit of land. We further show that such mismatches between fertilizer applications and soil macronutrient requirements are potentially yield-reducing. Those farmers matching their soil nutrient requirements and fertilizer application are likely to enjoy additional yield gains and the vice versa. Marginal yield responses associated with nitrogen (phosphorus) application increases with soil nitrogen (phosphorus) deficiency. Similarly, we find that farmers’ response to acidic soils is not yield-enhancing. These findings suggest that such mismatches may explain heterogeneities in marginal returns to chemical fertilizers and the observed low adoption rates of chemical fertilizers in sub-Saharan Africa. As such, these findings have important implications for improving input management practices and fertilizer diffusion strategies.

× Using the project-Women’s Empowerment in Agricultural Index (pro-WEAI) survey tool developed by GAAP2, this study aims to estimate the impact of a microfinance ‘plus’ programme on women’s economic empowerment in communities in Oromia and Afar, Ethiopia. The programme incorporates multiple interventions, which are implemented through women-run rural savings and credit cooperatives (RUSACCOs), with the intention of improving beneficiary women’s decision-making over productive assets, control over income, and leadership in rural institutions. A major component of the programme is aimed at rural women’s greater access to credit, but interventions also include agricultural livestock and technology transfers, business training, as well as a community gender awareness component. A difference-in-difference estimator with Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) is used to evaluate the impact of the programme on women’s empowerment in Oromia. Because of conflict in the area, baseline data collection was delayed and data was collected after some interventions had already begun in Oromia. As such, nearly all beneficiaries already had access to credit through the RUSACCOs at baseline, and both women and men were already empowered in a number of dimensions at baseline. Among households with beneficiaries who continued in good standing between baseline and midline, the programme positively contributed to both women’s and men’s empowerment with regards to respect among household members. It did not lead to additional impacts in terms of overall empowerment and gender parity within the household or across the other pro-WEAI indicators. However, it appears that, by maintaining good standing in the RUSACCOs, female participants were able to maintain high levels of empowerment across the other indicators. A second group of beneficiary women, who either chose to leave the RUSACCO or did not maintain good standing as a member, were also highly empowered across many dimensions at baseline but experienced large average decreases in empowerment across a number of indicators by midline. In Afar, using the midline data only, a single-difference estimator with Inverse Probability Weighting is used to evaluate the impact of the programme. In Afar, the programme had a significant impact on women’s overall empowerment. As we expected, given the nature of the programme, there were significant positive results in terms of access to and decisions on financial services, group membership, and membership in influential groups. There were also positive impacts on control over the use of income, suggesting that the programme contributed to greater control over the use of the output from agricultural activities and control over income from agricultural and non-agricultural activities. On the other hand, the programme also appears to have resulted in reduced empowerment on average with regards to autonomy in income.

× Poor diet quality has been widely identified as a primary reason for malnutrition and the increasing burden of non-communicable diseases in low- and middle-income countries. Low consumption of fruits and vegetables contributes to poor diet quality, and one factor leading to low fruit and vegetable consumption is limited consumer awareness of the health and nutrition benefits of consumption. In this study, we experimentally assess a method of increasing consumer awareness, specifically, through showing households two different versions of a video embedded with messages about increasing fruit and vegetable consumption. The first video included just the basic recommended consumption behavior messages, while the second video also explained why and how fruit and vegetable consumption could improve health and nutrition outcomes. Even four months after viewing the video, average household consumption of fruits and vegetables increased by about 10 percent in both treatment groups relative to the control group, both in kilocalorie and consumption expenditure terms. The videos were developed to eventually show on national TV, suggesting that embedding dietary BCC messages in popular media can have positive impacts on diet quality at scale.

× Agricultural research and development (R&D) is one component of public investments in the agricultural sector toward food system transformation. Enhancing the effectiveness of agricultural R&D remains critical, given increasingly scarce public resources. Exploring spatial spillover potentials has been one way to enhance the effectiveness of agricultural R&D. Geographical locations of National Agricultural Research Systems (NARS) research activities are recognized as an important factor affecting such spatial spillover potentials. However, evidence is generally limited in Africa south of Sahara (SSA) as to the spillover potentials of NARS-developed technologies. This paper partly aims to fill this knowledge gap by obtaining insights for maize, one of the most commonly grown crops in SSA, using nationally representative farm household data for Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Uganda, and spatial agroclimatic data. Building on recent literature, this study proxies spillover potentials by “agroclimatic similarity” (AS) indicators between locations where agricultural R&D for maize is conducted by NARS (research locations) and where each farm household is located (farm locations). Results of the analyses suggest that an indicator of the total factor productivity of maize growing farm households, the land productivity of maize, and the use of improved maize varieties are generally higher in farm locations that share similar agroclimatic conditions with maize research locations of NARS. These patterns hold for all four countries studied, even after controlling for the physical proximity to maize research stations and other farm household characteristics. The findings contribute to better understanding of how geographic locations of public investments affect their overall effectiveness as well as returns in maize production and the agricultural sector in general.

× Gender differences in the engagement of work activities across sectors are important elements of gender inequality in rural livelihoods and welfare in developing countries. The role of production technologies, including agricultural mechanization, in addressing gender inequality, is increasingly explored. Knowledge gaps remain, however, including, how agricultural mechanization differentially affect labor engagements across sectors. This study aims to partly fill these knowledge gaps through micro-evidence from 8 countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, Tanzania, India, Nepal, Tajikistan and Vietnam), using several nationally representative panel data and supplementary data, and applying Correlated-Random-Effects Double-Hurdle models with Instrumental-Variables. We find that the use of tractors and/or combine harvesters by the household induces greater shift from farm activities to non-farm activities by female members than by male members. While statistical significance varies, these patterns generally hold consistently across all 8 countries studied. These patterns also seem to hold across different farm sizes. While these are short-term relations, agricultural mechanization proxied by tractor and/or combine harvesters is one of the important contributors to gendered rural livelihood. Future studies should more closely investigate underlying mechanisms and implications of these patterns.

× This paper provides a quantitative impact assessment of the community-based integrated natural resources management project (CBINReMP) in the Lake Tana region in Ethiopia during 2011-2019. By promoting greater community participation, the CBINReMP provided support to watershed communities for the restoration of degraded soils and water sources, rehabilitation of forests, as well as in obtaining access to secure land titles and practices for climate change adaptation. The project further provided support towards diversification of incomes in off-farm activities and incentives for women’s empowerment and youth employment. This way the project aimed to support rural livelihoods through improvements in household incomes, dietary diversity, agricultural productivity, and resilience to climatic shocks, among other livelihood objectives.
To assess the project’s impacts, the study had to deal with numerous methodological complications owing to as the project’s nature and design. The lack of a proper baseline survey, incomplete information about targeted watershed communities and often lack of clear distinction lines between the project’s interventions and support provided to communities through other mechanisms made it hard to identify the true impact of the CBINReMP. Four additional challenges had to be faced: possible selection biases because of non-random placement (targeting) of the project; self-selection of beneficiaries into receiving the project; possible spatial spill-over effects of project benefits to non-treatment communities, and the project’s phased rollout. A propensity-score matching procedure was adopted to assess the CBINReMP’s impacts by comparing treatment (beneficiary) and control groups outcomes related to the livelihood indicators listed above. This paper discusses how the mentioned complications were addressed to provide a sound assessments of the project’s true impacts. While certain limitations remain, the key finding that can be drawn with confidence is that the CBINReMP had only very limited, quantitatively verifiable impact on rural livelihoods. It seems to have contributed to higher household incomes and some greater dietary diversity, but only where the project managed greater community participation. However, even for those beneficiaries, livelihood conditions had not become significantly more productive, diversified, resilient, or sustainable than those of the comparison group. The paper ends with recommendations on how to avoid methodological obstacles through better design of the M&E framework for multi-intervention, community-based projects.

× A growing literature in economics has analyzed the effects of psychological interventions designed to boost individual aspirations as a strategy to increase investments with long-term returns and thus reduce poverty. This paper reports on a randomized controlled trial evaluating a short video-based intervention designed to increase aspirations of adults in poor rural Ethiopian households, all of whom are beneficiaries of the Productive Safety Net Program, the main government safety net program in Ethiopia. Evidence from a sample of 5258 adults from 3220 households is consistent with the hypothesis that there is no evidence that the aspirations treatment had any significant effects on self-reported aspirations for the household, educational investment in children, or savings nine months post-treatment, suggesting that the effect of light-touch aspirations treatments for extremely poor adults may be limited in this context.

× We examine worker training by Chinese manufacturing firms using nationally representative firm-level data from both Ethiopia and Tanzania. While Chinese firms make up a relatively small portion of the manufacturing industry in both Ethiopia and Tanzania, at the firm-level they contribute significantly to both domestic employment and labor training. In both countries more than 85 percent of the workers employed by Chinese firms are local, and Chinese firms (and other foreign firms) are more likely to offer labor training than their domestic counterparts. However, we find evidence that Chinese firms underperform relative to other foreign firms in the share of local workers employed, and in Tanzania the difference is especially large for managerial positions.

× Child labour in agriculture remains a global concern. Agriculture is the sector where most child labour is found. Employment of children mostly relates to farm household poverty in developing countries. This raises the question of the extent to which the modernisation of agriculture prevents the use of child labour while also leading to higher productivity. One of the central questions in this context is whether agricultural mechanisation helps limit children’s employment. Available studies have put forward opposing hypotheses, but rigorous empirical evidence is scant. The present study aims to fill some of this void by studying the evidence from comparable farm household survey data in seven developing countries, including three in Asia (India, Nepal, and Vietnam) and four in sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Tanzania).
Various key findings emerge. First, many children are found to engage in productive activities in studied countries. The prevalence is particularly high in African countries, such as in Ethiopia where more than one third of children aged 5-14 years engage in farm or off-farm work. Second, while the prevalence of child labour in agriculture (i.e., when productive engagement is detrimental to schooling and child growth) is much lower (at 10% or less in seven countries), they are still sizable in absolute terms; at least 6 million children in these countries partake in agricultural work at the expense of opportunities in adulthood. Third, agricultural mechanization, reflected in farm household’s use of machinery such as tractors, significantly reduces the likelihood of use of children’s labour and increases school attendance. Fourth, the measured impacts of mechanization are only modest, however, and likely indirect, that is, dependent on the extent to which mechanization helps improve household income and on local conditions (such as quality of rural infrastructure and accessibility of education and other social services).
Overall, promotion of agricultural mechanization can help prevent use of child labour. To be truly impactful, however, related support measures should be embedded in broader strategies to enable agricultural productivity growth and improve livelihoods of poor rural households.

× Improving household resilience is becoming one of the key focus and target of social protection programs in Africa. However, there is surprisingly little direct evidence of the impacts of social protection programs on household resilience measures. We use five rounds of panel data to examine rural households’ resilience outcomes associated with participation in Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP). Following Cissé and Barrett (2018), we employ a probabilistic moment-based approach for measuring resilience and evaluate the role of PSNP transfers and duration of participation on households’ resilience. We document four important findings. First, although PSNP transfers are positively associated with resilience, PSNP transfers below the median are less likely to generate meaningful improvements in resilience. Second, continuous participation in the PSNP participation is associated with higher resilience. Third, combining safety nets with income generating or asset building initiatives may be particularly efficacious at building poor households’ resilience. Fourth, our evaluation of both short-term welfare outcomes and longer-term resilience suggests that these outcomes are likely to be driven by different factors, suggesting that optimizing intervention designs for improving short term welfare impacts may not necessarily improve households’ resilience, and vice versa. Together, our findings imply that effectively boosting household resilience may require significant transfers over multiple years. National safety nets programs that transfer small amounts to beneficiaries over limited time horizons may not be very effective.

× The paucity of reliable and timely household consumption data in many low- and middle-income countries have made it practically impossible to assess how global poverty has evolved during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the burst of phone surveys, there has been few attempts to collect household consumption data. To test the feasibility of collecting consumption data over the phone, we conducted a survey experiment in urban Ethiopia, randomly assigning a balanced sample to either a phone or an in-person interview. The average value of per capita consumption is 23 percent lower, and the estimated poverty headcount is twice as high in the phone survey relative to the in-person survey. We see evidence of survey fatigue occurring early on in phone interviews but not in in-person interviews, and the bias is correlated with household characteristics. While the phone survey mode provides lower costs, it cannot replace in-person surveys for household consumption measurement.

× Despite enthusiasm on the potential of digital innovations to transform agricultural markets in Africa, progress made thus far has been limited to small-scale experiments that often fail to scale up. Realizing the full potential of digital innovations—tools, technologies, applications, and services—in Africa requires not just further development of these solutions at meaningful scales, but also more nuanced evidence from both successful and unsuccessful scaling efforts. This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical evidence on the transformative potential of digital innovations for African agricultural markets with an in-depth examination of solutions that have been rolled out to date in the continent. Specifically, the review addresses the following questions: (i) how can digital innovations improve the functioning of agricultural markets in Africa? (ii) what explains the apparent failure of most pilots to scale up? (iii) what is required to realize their full potential? and (iv) what are the emerging risks and opportunities associated with these digital innovations for agricultural marketing? Although our review of the landscape and literature on market-focused digital innovations in Africa identifies several reasons to remain optimistic, the prevailing disconnect between pilots and scale-ups merits further evaluation. In particular, there is a need for more systematic assessments of both successes and failures at different stages of piloting and scaling of digital solutions.

× While indirect methods are increasingly widely used to measure sensitive behaviors such as intimate partner violence in order to minimize social desirability biases in responses, in developing countries the use of more complex indirect questioning methods raises important questions around how individuals will react to the use of a more unusual and complex question structure. This paper presents evidence from a list experiment measuring multiple forms of intimate partner violence within an extremely poor sample of women in rural Ethiopia. We find that the list experiment does not generate estimates of intimate partner violence that are higher than direct response questions; rather, prevalence estimates using the list experiment are lower vis-à-vis prevalence estimates using the direct reports, and sometimes even negative. We interpret this finding as consistent with “fleeing” behavior by respondents who do not wish to be associated with statements associated with intimate partner violence.

× Ethiopian economy has grown at an average rate that surpasses that of almost any other economy in the region over the last two decades. At the center of this development is the high priority placed on accelerating agricultural growth and achieving food security and poverty alleviation. Over the years, maize has become a main food security crop, widely produced and consumed by smallholder farmers, second only to teff in terms of area. Despite the sustained growth of maize production over the years, its yields continue to be lower than the world’s average. Of the many abiotic and biotic constraints that maize faces, insect attacks and droughts are two critical ones. The genetically modified TELA maize can help address these constraints. This paper estimates the economic benefits of adopting this new technology and the opportunity cost that Ethiopia will incur if its adoption is delayed. The analysis is conducted using an economic surplus partial equilibrium model run with the newly developed DREAMpy software, data drawn from the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey, Wave 3 2015-2016, econometric estimations using these survey data, and other local data and sources. The estimations show that if the drought tolerant and insect resistant TELA maize is planted in 2023 the net present-value of benefits for producers and consumers would be around $850 million. Producers from the mid-altitude maize zone will be the main beneficiaries, given the targeted area of TELA maize. Consumers from all areas will benefit from the projected reduction in price. If the adoption of this new technology is delayed by 5 years, the estimated net present value of benefits will fall by 30 percent. These costs underscore the importance of having a regulatory system that is efficient, predictable, and transparent and ensures that the projected economic benefits are realized.

× Small-scale irrigation (SSI) provides great benefits to farmers in terms of increased yields and profits, better food and nutrition security and greater resilience to climate shocks. Ethiopia has high potential for expanding SSI and has invested considerably in this area in recent years. Despite these investments, several challenges to further expansion of irrigation technologies remain. Different stakeholders in the country play important roles in overcoming these barriers to further scale technologies for SSI. This paper explores institutional arrangements for the diffusion of small-scale irrigation technologies by mapping the landscape of key actors involved, their interconnections, and their influence. This paper draws on an analysis of stakeholder data collected through two participatory workshops in Ethiopia, one at the national level and one at the Oromia regional level, using the Net-Map approach. Results show the dominance of government actors in the diffusion of SSI at both the national and regional levels, while most private sector and NGO actors remain in the periphery. Participants in both workshops highlighted the need for increased financing services to support the adoption of SSI and measures aimed at increasing the supply of high-quality irrigation equipment, such as modern water lifting technologies. One notable difference between the national and regional results was that at the regional level, farmers, and to some extent traders and input suppliers, were considered to be more influential in the diffusion of irrigation technologies, while they were considered marginal actors at the national level.

× International humanitarian organizations have expressed substantial concern about the potential for increases in food insecurity resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we use a unique panel survey of a representative distribution of households in Addis Ababa to study both food security and food consumption. In contrast to some other countries in the region, Ethiopia never went into a full lockdown severely restricting movement. Despite subjective income measures suggesting a large proportion of households have been exposed to job loss or reduced incomes, we find that relative to a survey conducted in August and September of 2019, food consumption and household dietary diversity are largely unchanged or slightly increased by August 2020. We find some changes in the composition of food consumption, but they are not related to shocks found in previous phone surveys conducted with the same households. The results therefore suggest the types of subjective questions about income typically being asked in COVID-19 phone surveys may not appropriately reflect the magnitude of such shocks. They also imply, at least indirectly, that in the aggregate food value chains have been resilient to the shock associated with the pandemic.

× The study investigates the overall impacts of a second level land certification (SLLC) program in Ethiopia using a three-wave panel data set 3092 households collected in 2013, 2015 and 2018. The fact that the first-round survey was administered just before the SLLC program was launched in 2013/14 provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the impacts of the program using data before and after the program was launched. After controlling for potential selection bias, overall results show no evidence of diminishing returns to the first level land certification (FLLC) as SLLC program participation shows no statistically significant effect on household perceived tenure security. A more gender disaggregated investigation indicates a relatively favorable outcome on married women’s perceived tenure security compared to their male counterparts. Empirical results also reveal a market stimulant effect of the SLLC program on land rental market participation with a more direct effect on beneficiary households’ likelihood of renting out land (becoming a landlord) and a spillover benefit to non-beneficiary households’ likelihood of renting-in land (becoming a tenant). Finally, our analysis shows a negative and statistically significant impact on access to and/or control over land by women and youth. Such evidence demands the need for future designing and implementation of similar programs to integrate a more gender and age sensitive parameters so that program outcomes remain desirable/favorable for such vulnerable groups.

× We assess the impact of Ethiopia’s flagship social protection program, the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) on the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food and nutrition security of households, mothers, and children. We use both pre-pandemic in-person household survey data and a post-pandemic phone survey. Two thirds of our respondents reported that their incomes had fallen after the pandemic began and almost half reported that their ability to satisfy their food needs had worsened. Employing a household fixed effects difference-in-difference approach, we find that the household food insecurity increased by 11.7 percentage points and the size of the food gap by 0.47 months in the aftermath of the onset of the pandemic. Participation in the PSNP offsets virtually all of this adverse change; the likelihood of becoming food insecure increased by only 2.4 percentage points for PSNP households and the duration of the food gap increased by only 0.13 months. The protective role of PSNP is greater for poorer households and those living in remote areas. Results are robust to definitions of PSNP participation, different estimators and how we account for the non-randomness of mobile phone ownership. PSNP households were less likely to reduce expenditures on health and education by 7.7 percentage points and were less likely to reduce expenditures on agricultural inputs by 13 percentage points. By contrast, mothers’ and children’s diets changed little, despite some changes in the composition of diets with consumption of animal source foods declining significantly.

× Credit constraint is considered by many as one of the key barriers to adoption of modern agricultural technologies, such as chemical fertilizer, improved seeds, and irrigation technologies, among smallholders. Past research and much policy discourse associates agricultural credit constraints with supply-side factors, such as limited access to credit sources or high costs of borrowing. However, demand-side factors, such as risk-aversion and financial illiteracy among borrowers, as well as high transaction costs, can also play important roles in credit-rationing for smallholders. Using primary survey data from Ethiopia and Tanzania, this study examines the nature of credit constraints facing smallholders and the factors that affect credit constraints. In addition, we assess whether credit constraints are gender-differentiated. Results show that demand-side credit constraints are at least as important as supply-side factors in both countries. Women are more likely to be credit constrained (from both the supply and demand sides) than men. Based on these findings, we suggest that policies should focus on addressing both supply- and demand-side credit constraints, including through targeted interventions to reduce risk, such as crop insurance and gender-sensitive policies to improve women’s access to credit.

× Telescoping errors occur if survey respondents misdate consumption or expenditure episodes by including events from outside the reference period in their recall. Concern about telescoping influenced the design of early Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) surveys, which used a two-visit interview format to allow a bounded recall. This design fell out of favor although not for evidence-based reasons. Recent guidelines to harmonize food data collection in low- and middle-income countries by using one-week recall increase the relevance of telescoping because errors spread over a shorter period will loom larger. To provide evidence on telescoping, we conducted a survey experiment in Ethiopia, randomly assigning a balanced sample – either a two-visit bounded recall or a single visit unbounded recall. The average value of reported food consumption is 16 percent higher in the unbounded single visit recall relative to the two-visit bounded recall. Put differently, in this experiment, telescoping errors amount, on average, to an entire extra day worth of consumption being included in the report for the last seven days. Most of the error is explained by difference in reporting of spending on less frequently consumed, protein-rich foods, so apparent diet diversity and dietary quality indicators are likely to be overstated when using unbounded recall.

× Decentralization, or devolution of authority to lower levels of government, is often motivated by its potential to make service delivery more responsive to citizens’ preferences. However, women’s ability to influence policy outcomes may vary across levels of government. This paper considers how decentralization affects both women’s and men’s access to government-provided services and their level of political engagement. We exploit the partial roll-out of decentralization in Ethiopia during 2000–01 and use a spatial regression discontinuity design to identify its impacts. Decentralization improves access to public services for both women and men, but the benefits for men are greater, widening the gender gap in access. We find no evidence that this is due to women’s lower likelihood of participating in local elections; indeed, decentralization increases women’s but not men’s participation. However, decentralization disproportionately increases men’s interactions with local government officials and influential civil society leaders—who wield more power under decentralization. The results are consistent with non-electoral channels of political influence at the local level, dominated by men, contributing to policy outcomes favoring men. They shed light on potential pitfalls of decentralized service delivery from a gender equality perspective, and provide policy recommendations for ensuring women’s equitable access to services.

× This paper investigates the impacts of sustainable land management (SLM) on water security and poverty based on an evaluation of a watershed level SLM program promoted in Amhara regional state of Ethiopia. A household survey was conducted in two WLRC watersheds with SLM programming as well as complementary support and two adjacent watersheds without such programming. Our findings show that the SLM program significantly increased plot-level adoption of SLM practices, particularly of soil bunds and stone terraces. We also find that SLM contributes to water security for both crop and livestock production. Households in SLM-supported learning watersheds have more access to groundwater for irrigation and have higher crop yields for maize, mango and millet; have experienced improving water availability for livestock production in the past five years; and have higher income from livestock products than households in control watersheds. The positive impacts of SLM and complementary interventions on livestock income is attributed to the improved water security conditions in the learning watersheds, access to better animal forage planted along the SLM constructed structures, and animal vaccination and artificial insemination services that were part of the broader set of interventions. These findings further show that although SLM impacts were limited, the potential to improve welfare of smallholders across several livelihoods is enhanced when SLM is combined with other multifaceted complimentary interventions.

× Despite a rapidly growing enthusiasm around applications of information and communications technologies (ICTs) to smallholder agriculture in developing countries, there are still many questions on the effectiveness of ICT-based approaches. This study assesses the effects of videomediated agricultural extension service provision on farmers’ knowledge and adoption of improved agricultural technologies and practices in Ethiopia. The study focuses on a program piloted by the Government of Ethiopia and Digital Green and poses three questions. First, to what extent does video-mediated extension lead to increased uptake of improved agricultural technologies and practices by smallholder farmers? Second, is video-mediated extension targeted at both spouses of the household more effective than when only targeted at the (typically male) household head? Third, how cost-effective is a video-mediated approach to extension provision? The study explores these questions with a randomized controlled trial designed to evaluate the video-mediated approach as applied to three priority crops (teff, wheat, maize) and three
technologies (row planting, precise seeding rates, and urea dressing). The trial was implemented in 347 kebeles (village clusters) during the 2017 meher (rainy) season in Ethiopia’s four most agriculturally important regional states. Analysis of data from our surveys of 2,422 households
and 896 extension agents indicates that the video-mediated approach is more effective than the conventional approach in achieving several key outcomes. Specifically, we find that videomediated extension reaches a wider audience than the conventional approach and leads to higher
levels of agricultural knowledge and uptake of technologies in those kebeles randomly assigned to the program. While our results do point to greater participation and greater knowledge of female spouses in kebeles where both male and female spouses were targeted by the program, we
do not find clear evidence that the more inclusive approach translated into higher uptake of the subject technologies and practices. Finally, we find that the video-mediated approach becomes less costly as the scale of operation increases.

× Despite Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators’ (ASTI) global and regional visibility-and the use of its data for institutional decision-making by various national agricultural research institutes-the incorporation of ASTI evidence into national policymaking remains mostly ad hoc and is often indirect. Moreover, interventions to influence the uptake of ASTI data for this purpose have been limited. Given agricultural research’s important role in increasing agricultural productivity, economic growth, and poverty reduction, ASTI initiated a pilot study in three African countries (Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tanzania) to develop a clearer understanding of how to promote the uptake of agricultural research evidence. The study focused on how evidence in general, and ASTI evidence in particular, could be more effectively integrated at the national level, particularly to promote the allocation of sustainable resources to agricultural research. The study was conducted in two stages: (1) the mapping of each country’s agricultural research interests and issues; and (2) identifying initial activities through which those interests offered opportunities both to fill research gaps and enhance the utility of agricultural research. Findings from the pilot studies point to opportunities for improving the availability, accessibility, appropriateness, and ownership of ASTI evidence to ensure that it contributes more effectively as a valuable resource for decision-making. Strong relationships and networks are needed to increase awareness of ASTI evidence and to institute linkages with official national data systems. Outcomes indicated both interest in the evidence and recognition of its merit. Greater outreach and connectivity with local institutions may be useful next steps. These findings lead to some general recommendations for improving the use of evidence, along with specific recommendations for the ASTI network approach moving forward. Shifting ownership of the data and systems to the regional and national levels-a key objective of the network approach-is a long-term undertaking. A transition period is needed, accompanied by a strategic plan to shift responsibility and action, first to the regional level and then to the national level where feasible.

× Some agricultural practices, such as irrigation, have the potential to buffer seasonal dietary gaps and thus improve diets, particularly for subsistence farmers but also for rural and urban households that purchase irrigated produce from local markets. While the seasonality of households and children’s diets is well documented, little is known about the seasonality of women’s diets and the influence of irrigation. Using longitudinal data from Ethiopia, this study characterized women’s diet over time and evaluated the potential implications of seasonality and irrigation on women’s diet. Women’s dietary diversity was low (3-4 out of 10 food groups) and exhibited high seasonal variability (P<0.05). Diets were predominantly plant-based, with little consumption of nutrientdense foods, such as fruits and animal source foods. High seasonal variability in energy, protein, vitamin C, calcium, iron, and zinc intakes were observed (P<0.01). Irrigators were more likely to meet the minimum dietary diversity for women (MDDW), had higher energy and calcium intake, and lower prevalence of anemia, than women from non-irrigating households (P< 0.05). No cases of malaria were reported from the three rounds of screening. Our preliminary findings suggest that there is high seasonal variation in women’s diet, but this can be partly offset by irrigation practices.

× We show analytically and empirically that non-classical measurement errors in the two key variables in a hypothesized relationship can bias the estimated relationship between them in any direction. Furthermore, if these measurement errors are correlated, correcting for either one alone can aggravate bias in the parameter estimate of interest relative to ignoring mismeasurement in both variables, a ‘second best’ result with implications for a broad class of economic phenomena of policy interest. We illustrate these results empirically by demonstrating the implications of mismeasured agricultural output and plot size for the long-debated (inverse) relationship between size and productivity.

× In this paper, we identify research streams to support the operationalizing of such food systems approaches in Ethiopia. To this end, we engaged with stakeholders, reviewed the literature, and applied a food systems framework to research priorities in the Ethiopian context. We develop an initial food systems profile of Ethiopia and identify 25 priority research questions, categorized into three main areas: diagnosis and foresight research, implementation research, and institutional and policy processes...The paper contextualizes the case of Ethiopia within global food systems thinking and thereby aims to stimulate in- and cross-country learning.

× Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) is a large-scale social protection intervention aimed at improving food security and stabilizing asset levels. The PSNP contains a mix of public works employment and unconditional transfers. It is a well-targeted program; however, several years passed before payment levels reached the intended amounts. The PSNP has been successful in improving household food security. However, children’s nutritional status in the localities where the PSNP operates is poor, with 48 percent of children stunted in 2012. This leads to the question of whether the PSNP could improve child nutrition. In this paper, we examine the impact of the PSNP on children’s nutritional status over the period 2008–2012. Doing so requires paying particular attention to the targeting of the PSNP and how payment levels have evolved over time. Using inverse-probability-weighted regression-adjustment estimators, we find no evidence that the PSNP reduces either chronic undernutrition (height-for-age z-scores, stunting) or acute undernutrition (weight-for-height z-scores, wasting). While we cannot definitively identify the reason for this nonresult, we note that child diet quality is poor. We find no evidence that the PSNP improves child consumption of pulses, oils, fruits, vegetables, dairy products, or animal-source proteins. Most mothers have not had contact with health extension workers nor have they received information on good feeding practices. Water practices, as captured by the likelihood that mothers boil drinking water, are poor. These findings, along with work by other researchers, have informed revisions to the PSNP. Future research will assess whether these revisions have led to improvements in the diets and anthropometric status of preschool children in Ethiopia.

× Adoption of quality-enhancing technologies is often driven largely by farmers’ expected returns from these technologies. Without proper grades, standards, and certification systems, however, farmers may remain uncertain about the actual financial return associated with their quality-enhancing investments. This report summarizes the outcomes of a short video-based randomized training intervention on wheat quality measurement and collective marketing among 15,000 wheat farmers in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that the intervention led to significant changes in farmers’ commercialization behaviors—namely, it prompted farmers to adopt behaviors geared toward assessing their wheat’s quality using easily implementable test-weight measures, assessing the accuracy of the equipment used by buyers in their kebeles (scales, in particular), and contacting more than one buyer before concluding a sale. The training also led to improvements in share of output sold, price received, and collective marketing, albeit with important limitations. First, farmers who measured their wheat quality received a higher price, but only if their wheat was of higher quality. Second, farmers who found that their wheat was of higher quality were more reluctant to aggregate their wheat (that is, sell their products through local cooperatives) than those who found that their wheat was of lower quality. Lastly, the training intervention led to better use of fertilizer in the following season. Our discovery that a short training intervention can significantly change farmers’ marketing and production behavior should encourage the development of further interventions aimed at enhancing farmers’ adoption of improved technologies and commercialization.

× The Nile is the lifeblood of northeastern Africa, and its roles for and interdependency with the national economies it traverses and binds together grow as it moves from source to sea. With rapid economic development—population growth, irrigation development, rural electrification, and overall economic growth—pressures on the Nile’s water resources are growing to unprecedented levels. These drivers of change have already contributed to stark changes in the hydropolitical regime, and new forms of cooperation and cross-sectoral collaboration are needed, particularly in the Eastern Nile Basin countries of Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan. As direct sharing of water resources is hampered by unilateral developments, the need has increased for broader, cross-sectoral collaboration around the water, energy, and food sectors. This study is conducted to assess and understand the challenges of and opportunities for cooperation across the water-energy-food nexus nationally in Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, as well as regionally across the Eastern Nile. To gather data, the paper uses an e-survey supplemented with key informant interviews geared toward national-level water, energy, and agriculture stakeholders, chiefly government staff and researchers. Findings from the survey tools suggest that most respondents strongly agree that collaboration across the water, energy, and agriculture sectors is essential to improve resource management in the region. At the same time, there is ample scope for improvement in collaboration across the water, energy, and food sectors nationally. Ministries of water, energy, and food were identified as the key nexus actors at national levels; these would also need to be engaged in regional cross-sectoral collaboration. Respondents also identified a wide range of desirable cross-sectoral actions and investments—both national and regional—chiefly, joint planning and operation of multipurpose infrastructure; investment in enhanced irrigation efficiency; joint rehabilitation of upstream catchments to reduce sedimentation and degradation; and investment in alternative renewable energy projects, such as wind and solar energy.

× This paper complements the gender and technology adoption literature by shifting attention to what happens after adoption of a technology. Understanding the expected benefits and costs of adoption from the perspective of women users can help explain the technology adoption rates that are observed and why technology adoption is often not sustained in the longer term. Drawing on qualitative data from Ethiopia, Ghana, and Tanzania, this paper develops a framework for examining the intrahousehold distribution of benefits from technology adoption, focusing on small-scale irrigation technologies. The framework contributes to the conceptual and empirical exploration of jointness in control over technology by men and women. It does this by identifying a series of decisions following technology adoption, and how these decisions affect how the technology is used, by whom, to whose benefit, and with what costs.

× How does the amount of land youth expect to inherit affect their migration and employment decisions? This paper explores this question in the context of rural Ethiopia using panel data from 2010 and 2014. We estimate a household fixed-effects model and exploit exogenous variation in the timing of land redistributions to overcome endogenous household decisions about how much land to bequeath to descendants. We find that larger expected land inheritances significantly lower the likelihood of long-distance permanent migration and of permanent migration to urban areas during this time. Inheriting more land is also associated with a significantly higher likelihood of employment in agriculture and a lower likelihood of employment in the nonagricultural sector. Conversely, the decision to attend school is unaffected. These results appear to be most heavily driven by males and by the older half of our youth sample. We also find several mediating factors matter. Land inheritance plays a much more pronounced role in predicting rural-to-urban permanent migration and nonagricultural-sector employment in areas with less vibrant land markets and in relatively remote areas (those far from major urban centers). Overall, the results suggest that inheritance strongly influences the spatial location and strategic employment decisions of youth.

× In the context of increasing vulnerability to climate change for people dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods, the International Food Policy Research Institute and partner organizations in Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, and Bangladesh undertook a project broadly aiming to create knowledge that will help policymakers and development agencies to strengthen the capacity of male and female smallholder farmers and livestock keepers to manage climate-related risks. This study—one component of the project—examines the networks and power dynamics of stakeholders in the four target countries so as to (1) identify potential partners in the research process, (2) find out which organizations could make use of the research findings in their activities, and (3) inform the communication and outreach strategy of the research project. This paper describes the network structures for climate change policy, the actors in the networks with high centrality and influence scores, and the implications of these results for outreach and dissemination.

× Using a participatory rural appraisal approach, a series of qualitative studies were conducted in four countries facing negative impacts of climate change—Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya and Mali—in order to determine men’s and women’s perceptions of climate change, adaptive approaches, and the degree to which assets and group participation play a role in adaptation strategies. Similarities were found across countries in terms of perceptions of climate change, impacts, and strategies for adaptation. Farmers and pastoralists, groups heavily dependent on natural resources, are starkly aware of and impacted by subtle climatic changes, and those with a stronger asset base were better able to adapt to changes and shocks.

× This paper presents evidence on rural Ethiopian households’ time allocation to different activities, especially fuel collection work, and examines the effect of changes in the availability of firewood resources on households’ time allocation to fuel collection and on- and off-farm income generation. Based on firsthand insights from focus group discussions conducted with farmers in three rural villages of Ethiopia and data from an IFPRI-CIMMYT (International Food Policy Research Institute/International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center) household survey implemented by the Association of Ethiopian Microfinance Institutions, the results show that women are involved in more time-consuming and simultaneous work activities than men and hold the primary responsibility for fuel collection

× Financial cooperatives and microfinance institutions (MFIs) are the two major sources of rural finance in Ethiopia. Whereas MFIs are relatively new, financial cooperatives have existed for centuries in various forms. The coexistence of two different institutions serving the same group of people, and delivering the same financial services, raises several policy questions. Those questions have become particularly relevant, as the government has embarked on developing a new strategy for improving rural financial services delivery. This study is expected to serve as an input to that policy discussion. Using a unique household survey dataset and the propensity-score-matching technique, we examine the impacts of the two financial service providers on agricultural technology adoption. The results suggest that access to institutional finance has significant positive impacts on both the adoption and extent of technology use.

× This study examines the impact of the Wheat Initiative technology package promoted by the research and extension systems in Ethiopia on wheat growers in the highlands of the country. The package includes improved wheat seed, a lower seeding density, row planting, fertilizer recommendations, and marketing assistance. The sample of 482 wheat growers was randomly assigned to one of three groups: the full-package intervention group, a marketing-assistance-only group, and a control group. The results suggest that the full-package farmers had 12–13 percent higher yields after controlling for the type of farmer and household characteristics. Implementation of the Wheat Initiative was successful in terms of the distribution of improved seed and fertilizer, though only 61 percent of the intervention group adopted row planting and few farmers received marketing assistance. The measured yield difference may underestimate the true yield difference associated with the technology because of incomplete adoption of the recommended practices by intervention farmers and adoption of some practices by control farmers.

× While the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) is widely credited to be a successful on several accounts, there has been little rigorous empirical investigation. This paper attempts to fill that gap by analyzing how ECX has influenced the international-domestic price relationships of coffee—the largest traded commodity on its floor. We examine three aspects of price dynamics—market interdependence, volatility transmission, and structural breaks—using a spatially disaggregated prices of five coffee varieties. The results indicate that contrary to popular media stories, ECX’s success in improving coffee price relationships has been limited. The results appear to be robust under all three sets of analysis.

× In 2013 the Bureaus of Agriculture in the regional states of Amhara, Oromia, and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples of Ethiopia supported a program of direct marketing of certified seed by seed producers to farmers across 31 woredas (districts). This program stands in contrast to the dominant procedure for supplying such seed in which farmers register with local agricultural offices or extension agents to purchase seed for the coming cropping season and then receive seed either directly from these local offices or through local cooperatives. The evaluation shows that competition between entrepreneurial seed producers to capture a substantial portion of the market of farmer-customers for their seed to enable their firms to remain in business will propel wider and more effective distribution of new and improved hybrid maize to more and more farmers.

× The government of Ethiopia is investing significant public resources to increase overall national production of teff, wheat, and maize. To better understand the likely economywide effects of increases of between 12 and 14 percent in the national production of these cereals, a set of production increase scenarios for each crop were run using a computable general equilibrium model of the Ethiopian economy. The analyses were extended to also consider the effects of several international wheat price and wheat import scenarios, a wheat subsidy program, and maize exports. Among the effects considered are changes in economic growth, prices, total household consumption, cereal and calorie consumption levels, and poverty measures.

× Using the 2009 round of the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey, this paper examines the medium-term impact of the land registration on investment behavior by households, particularly the adoption of soil conservation techniques and tree planting. It investigates whether men’s and women’s knowledge of their property rights under the land registration (as measured by answers to a list of questions regarding the provisions of the registration, covering such areas as tenure security, land transfer rights, and rights related to gender equity and inheritance) has an impact on these investments.

× While there are ample empirical studies that claim the potential disincentive effects of sharecropping arrangements, the existing literature is shallow in explaining why share tenancy contracts are prevalent and diffusing in many developing countries. Using a unique tenant-landlord matched dataset from the Tigray region of Ethiopia, we are able to show how the tenants’ strategic response to the varying economic and tenure-security status of the landlords can explain sharecroppers’ productivity differentials.

× This report provides some reflections and insights on the level of awareness, practices, and organizational and institutional issues being faced by countries as they adapt to climate change, based on interviews with 87 practitioners working in government agencies, local organizations, international organizations, and think thanks reporting involvement in climate change adaptation. Data were collected in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Mali using both an e-survey platform and face-to-face interviews.

× In this study we focus on exclusion from job contact networks, which constitutes a major disadvantage for labor market participants in settings where referral hiring is common and information about jobs hard to obtain. In a mid-size town in northern Ethiopia, where these mechanisms are at work, we observe that many individuals do not access local job contact networks. Models of strategic network formation and behavioral decision theory suggest that given the right incentives, job contact networks should be more inclusive. On these grounds we hypothesize that workers would link to peripheral peers when this maximizes their chances of referral and when self-regarding concerns are absent due to social preferences.

× This study, thus, uses five rounds of household panel data from Tigray, Ethiopia, collected in the period 1998–2010 to assess the impacts of a land registration and certification program that aimed to strengthen tenure security and how it has contributed to increased food availability and thus food security in this food-deficit region.

× Highland Ethiopia is one of the most densely populated regions of Africa and has long been associated with both Malthusian disasters and Boserupian agricultural intensification. This paper explores the race between these two countervailing forces, with the goal of informing two important policy questions. First, how do rural Ethiopians adapt to land constraints? And second, do land constraints significantly influence welfare outcomes in rural Ethiopia?

× Taking advantage of a unique quasi-experimental survey design, this study analyzes the productivity impacts of the Ethiopian land certification program by identifying how the investment effects (technological gains) would measure up against the benefits from any improvements in input use intensity (technical efficiency). For this purpose, we adopted a data envelopment analysis–based Malmquist-type productivity index to decompose productivity differences into (1) within-group farm efficiency differences, reflecting the technical efficiency effect, and (2) differences in the group production frontier, reflecting the long-term investment (technological) effects.

× The study involved interviewing a large number of stakeholders in fertilizer value chain, collection of data on costs and margins from the key actors in the value chain, as well as household survey data. In this paper, we present the key findings from that study. In particular, the paper presents estimates of detail costs and margins in the value chain, econometrically derived profitability and yield responses, and the costs of government’s fertilizer promotion policies. Based the estimates of the costs and margins in the fertilizer value chain, the study argues that the current value chain will not be sustainable unless the scale of operation, as well institutional capacity, of the primary cooperatives goes up.

× The recent expansion of Chinese economic engagement in Africa is often poorly documented and not well understood. This paper is the first in an International Food Policy Research Institute-sponsored effort to better understand Chinese engagement in Africa’s agricultural sector. A clearer picture of Chinese activities in agriculture is important as a foundation for Africans and their development partners to more fruitfully engage with an increasingly important actor. This overview paper explores China’s engagement in rural Ethiopia in historical perspective, focusing on foreign aid, other official engagements, and investment by Chinese firms between 1970 and 2011. We find that Chinese engagement in agriculture and rural development in Ethiopia is longstanding, but at present, Chinese farming investment is far smaller than generally believed. Changes in this engagement reflect the changes in China’s engagement in Africa more generally.

× Individuals’ aspirations and their consequences for future-oriented behavior have received increased attention in development economics literature in recent years. At this stage, however, each study relies on ad hoc empirical instruments to measure aspirations, thereby limiting comparability of the results obtained. This paper proposes a simple measurement instrument that spans several dimensions aggregated via individual-specific weights. We use a purposefully collected data set to test for the usability, reliability, and validity of the instrument. In addition to standard test-retest procedures, our innovation lies in the use of several randomized tests introduced within the questionnaires themselves, in the enumerators’ qualifications, and in the information set available to respondents. Overall results show strong support for the proposed instrument, with the caveat that collection of such attitudinal data requires experienced enumerators capable of adequately probing respondents.

× Recent research on the intertemporal dynamics of poverty using microeconomic data often hints at the existence of poverty traps, where some find themselves trapped at a low-level stable equilibrium while others enjoy a higher stable equilibrium. Without a sizable positive shock to well-being, those trapped at the low equilibrium will not automatically outgrow destitution, but merely fluctuate around that low-level equilibrium. Given the dramatic policy consequences implied by such a theory, knowledge about the location of the different equilibria would be extremely helpful. In this paper, we explore the possibilities of threshold-type models to identify those crucial parameters. We illustrate the method by searching for traps in the dynamics of livestock asset holdings in rural Ethiopia. We find evidence of distribution-dependent dynamics and multiple equilibria for tropical livestock units.

× There is growing interest in the role of policy reforms to promote gender equality and empower women, two key objectives of development policy. From a policy perspective, it would be ideal for reforms undertaken in different policy areas to be consistent, so that they reinforce each other in improving gender equity. We use data from the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey (ERHS) to show how two seemingly unrelated reforms—community-based land registration, undertaken since 2003, and changes in the Family Code implemented in 2000—may have created conditions for mutually reinforcing gender-sensitive reforms. Our analysis confirms previous studies’ findings of gender gaps in awareness and information about the land registration process. Male-headed households are, on average, more likely to have heard about the process, to have attended meetings (and a greater number of meetings), and to have received some written material with information about the process. Having female members in the Land Administration Committee (LAC) has a positive impact on attendance at meetings relating to land registration. In our analysis of the changes in the family law, we find that awareness about the land registration process is positively correlated with the shift in perceptions toward equal division of land and livestock upon divorce. The presence of female members in the LAC also has a positive effect on the shift in perceptions toward a more equal division of assets upon divorce. Taken together, these findings suggest that the land registration process and the reform of the Family Code may have mutually reinforcing effects on women’s rights and welfare. While this example is obviously rooted in the Ethiopian context, it raises the possibility that similar reform efforts may be complementary in other countries as well.

× This paper analyzes drivers of global change and their impacts on the current and future availability and accessibility of water resources in the Nile Basin. Drivers include changes in demography, climate, the socioeconomy, and politics, all of which are likely to increase the demand for freshwater and thus competition over its use across riparian countries. As a result of historic bilateral agreements, Egypt, as the most downstream country, uses the lion’s share of the Nile’s waters, which makes reallocation particularly difficult. Egypt is nearly totally dependent on water from upstream countries but considers any change of the status quo a threat to its national (water) security. Ninety-six percent of Egypt’s water originates outside its territory—86 percent in Ethiopia. This paper assesses the special upstream–downstream relationship in the Nile Basin and the potential for change as a result of global change. It hypothesizes that under global change, not only will water availability in the Nile Basin change but so will the current hydropolitical situation in the basin. In any case, meeting the challenges in the Nile Basin depends on cooperation among countries and regulation of competing interests and demands. Avenues for hydropolitical reform, including the Nile Basin Initiative, and the role of China and other donors or investors are discussed. The findings—that global change might well bring down the old hydropolitical regime—are confirmed by recent developments, in particular, the signing by five upstream countries of a new framework agreement for management and development of the Nile Basin.

× Holding strategic grain reserves to address food price hikes has received renewed attentions in recent years. This paper examines such a program in Ethiopia that has been successful in addressing several emergencies since the 1990s. The analysis suggests that the key ingredients behind the success are a unique institutional design, coordination during emergencies with food-based safety net programs, and keeping the grain stocks to a minimum. Institutional design is unique because, unlike similar agencies in other countries, Ethiopia’s Emergency Food Security Reserve Administration (EFSRA) is independent of price stabilization and hence is not engaged in buying and selling of grain. The paper also demonstrates that scaling up school feeding programs will generate additional food demand and an effective outlet for stock rotation; and that increasing the stock level for price stabilization will adversely affect both grain markets and the performance of the EFSRA.

× Over the past several years, the Ethiopian government has committed a substantial portion of the public budget to expanding public services and infrastructure in rural areas. This paper assesses who exactly is benefiting from this public spending. To do so, this paper undertakes a public expenditure benefit incidence analysis across gender and wealth groups of three public services/programs in rural Ethiopia: (1) selected components of the Food Security Program (FSP), (2) drinking water supply, and (3) agricultural extension services. The analysis uses data at the individual, household, kebele (a subdistrict administrative unit), and district level in Ethiopia. The literature on the benefit incidence of services in developing countries exclusively focuses on the education and health sectors, whereas its application to agricultural and other rural services is nearly wholly absent—a gap that this paper seeks to begin to fill. For the selected components of the FSP, the paper finds the average incidence of participation to be pro-poor, both in concentration curve analysis and quantile-based public spending incidence. However, examination of the value of cash and in-kind receipts from the programs finds the cash/food-for-work program to be progressive, whereas the direct support (unconditional transfers to households) tends to be nonprogressive. The incidence of water services is assessed using different measures of access: physical proximity to drinking water sources and the use of improved drinking water sources. Access, as proxied by physical proximity, is poverty neutral, whereas the use of improved water facilities is pro-poor. With regard to agricultural extension, concentration curve analysis finds the service to be relatively progressive, whereas the benefits-to-population ratio demonstrates a somewhat more differentiated picture, with nonprogressive features at both ends of the wealth spectrum. From a gender perspective, the incidence of agricultural extension is pronouncedly skewed in favor of men. The public works component of the FSP favors male-headed households, and the direct support component favors female-headed households. In the case of drinking water services, the incidence of safe water use is actually higher for female-headed households, raising considerations of how male and female heads may differentially prioritize safe water for consumption. As a complement to the benefit incidence analysis, regression results identify demand- and supply-side factors that are correlated with access to the three different services.

× This methodological note discusses the potential and limits of using voucher-based experiments to randomly evaluate the micro-level impact of infrastructures on households’ well-being. We argue that such methods are policy relevant, statistically robust, and ethically correct. A number of conditions regarding the vouchers’ design and level, as well as allocation methods and household sampling, must be taken into account, however. We illustrate the discussion with an ongoing voucher-based impact evaluation of a rural electrification program in Ethiopia.

× Cereal price variability in Ethiopia has worsened in recent years, and some of the earlier liberalizations are being reversed due to the unacceptable economic and political costs of increased price variability. The challenge now is to achieve price stability in a cost-effective way. This paper examines intercommodity price relationships to assess the relative importance of each of the three major cereals in generating price volatility. Based on the estimates from a dynamic econometric model, the paper concludes that maize is the most significant in exacerbating price variability with respect to the persistence of shocks to itself and the two other cereals. This implies that focusing on maize, instead of wheat, will not only help better stabilize prices but also reduce costs of stabilization. The results are also discussed in the context of ongoing policy discussions.

× In this paper we examine which farmers would be early entrants into weather index insurance markets in Ethiopia, were such markets to develop on a large scale. We do this by examining the determinants of willingness to pay for weather insurance among 1,400 Ethiopian households that have been tracked for 15 years as part of the Ethiopia Rural Household Survey. This provides both historical and current information with which to assess the determinants of demand. We find that educated, rich, and proactive individuals were more likely to purchase insurance. Risk aversion was associated with low insurance take-up, suggesting that models of technology adoption can inform the purchase and spread of weather index insurance. We also assess how willingness to pay varied as two key characteristics of the contract were varied and find that basis risk reduced demand for insurance, particularly when the price of the contract was high, and that provision of insurance through groups was preferred by women and individuals with lower levels of education.

× Migration and remittances can be used by rural households as a means of insurance, investment, and income augmentation. Ample attention has been given to studying international remittance flows, since for many countries such transfers comprise a significant fraction of income. Remittance flows from internal migrants are relatively understudied, particularly in Africa, where remittance rates are poor. We use a unique matched migrant sample to study what drives the low remittance rates in Ethiopia. Descriptive statistics suggest remitters are positively selected in terms of wealth characteristics compared with the average tracked migrant. Limited skill transferability and liquidity largely explain low remittance rates in Ethiopia. Weaker evidence suggests migrants are additionally motivated to remit as a form of self-insurance against own shocks to income and investments towards future inheritable assets.

× We analyze the effectiveness of a new approach in providing weather index–based insurance products to low-income populations. The approach is based on the concept of providing multiple weather securities that pay a fixed amount if the event written on the security (that monthly rainfall at a nearby weather station falls below a stated cutoff) comes true. A theoretical model is developed to outline the conditions in which weather securities could outperform crop-specific weather index–based insurance policies. Data collected during both an experimental game and real purchases of such insurance policies among farmers in southern Ethiopia suggest that the securities are well understood and can fit heterogeneous farmer needs. This paper documents (1) heterogeneity of rainfall risk among farmers, (2) the understanding of securities and transmission of information about weather securities among members of endogenously formed risk-sharing groups, and (3) the nature of purchasing decisions and manner in which they are made.

× This paper provides empirical evidence on the gendered impact of the 2007–08 food price crisis using panel data on 1,400 households from rural Ethiopia that were initially surveyed before the onset of the crisis, in 1994–95, 1997, and 2004, and after food prices spiked, in 2009. It investigates whether female-headed households are more likely to report experiencing a food price shock, and whether female-headed households experiencing a shock are more (or less) likely to adopt certain coping strategies, controlling for individual, household, and community characteristics. Our findings suggest that female-headed households are more vulnerable to food price changes and are more likely to have experienced a food price shock in 2007–08. Because female-headed households are also resource poor and have a larger food gap compared with male-headed households, they cope by cutting back on the number of meals they provide their households during good months and eating less preferred foods in general. Our findings that land—particularly better quality land—has a protective effect against food price shocks also highlight the role of strengthening land rights of the poor, particularly poor women, to enable them to cope better with food price increases.

× Decentralized delivery of public services has been promoted as a means to enhance citizen voice and make service provision more responsive to users. Ethiopia has undertaken two rounds of decentralization, making first the regional states and then the district governments responsible for providing key public services. This paper explores whether decentralization has improved the quality of service delivery and citizen satisfaction with the services provided, focusing on agricultural extension. Specifically, we examine whether services are responsive to the needs and expressed demands of poor farmers, including women farmers. We focus on the institutional arrangements through which agricultural extension services are provided and how these contribute to efficiency, effectiveness, and equity in service delivery.

× Fatalism is considered pervasive, especially in many poor communities. In this paper, we explore whether fatalistic beliefs have implications for the attitudes and behavior of poor rural households toward investment in the future. To explore the idea of fatalism, we draw inspiration from theories in psychology focusing on the role of locus of control and self-efficacy and also from the theoretical framework of aspiration failure as developed in recent economic literature. Using survey data from rural Ethiopia, we find evidence of fatalistic beliefs among a substantial group of rural households, as well as indicators consistent with narrow aspirations gap and low self-efficacy. We also find that such beliefs consistently correlate with lower demand for credit, in terms of loan size, repayment horizon, and productive purposes.

× Both availability and access issues underpin Ethiopia’s food security challenges. The country is mostly dependent on drought-exposed, rain fed agriculture, and high transaction costs inhibit trade in staples. Most of the population lives in rural areas where poverty is widespread and livelihoods vulnerable to shocks and poverty traps. This paper looks at different approaches to improve food security in Ethiopia. Specifically, it compares the impacts on the access and availability dimensions of policy-based fertilizer subsidies, targeting yield growth against one of additional food transfers, sourced from local markets. It also explores the possibility of combining the subsidies with a switch to local procurement of current food transfers. It first runs a micro simulation model based on empirically estimated yield functions to quantify the likely effects of additional fertilizer application on national yields, suggesting a rather modest response. It then simulates the policies of interest using the static IFPRI standard CGE model, calibrated for Ethiopia using the 2005/06 social accounting matrix of the Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI). Simulation results point in two directions. First, the food transfer policy is more effective at raising consumption of staples by the targeted rural poor. Second, the moderate yield growth induced by the subsidy shows economic multipliers, stronger effects on domestic supply and welfare gains accruing to all poor through increased factor incomes and decreased staple prices. Yield growth seems a promising avenue to pursue food security and, more generally, poverty reduction goals. Nevertheless, policies focusing on one dimension of the yield function alone, such as fertilizer subsidies, are unlikely to deliver the necessary improvement in yields. Food transfers may still be the most effective short- to mid-term answer to food access insecurity when high return agricultural productivity policies are not available and when internal resources can be used to bear policy costs, avoiding the exchange rate distortions associated with foreign financial assistance.

× Improving the long-term sustainability and resilience of smallholder agriculture in Africa is highly dependent on conserving or improving the quality of the natural resource. Conservation agriculture is conceived around more integrated and effective management strategies for provisioning both food and other ecosystem services. If unattended to, land degradation would reduce agricultural productivity and increase pressure on marginal environments in the Tigray highlands of Ethiopia, adversely affecting food security and livelihoods of smallholder farmers. This paper answers some pertinent questions about mass mobilization of free compulsory labor for ecological restoration in Tigray. It details perception of changes in climate; the process of collective decisionmaking; resistance, documentation, and enforcement of rules; methods of conflict resolution; knowledge and information networks; arrangements for benefit sharing of communal resources; and the role of gender in mass mobilization for communal work. We analyzed data collected from 20 villages in 3 districts in the Tigray region through a household survey using a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions, and personal observations. The results reveal that the people are motivated to provide their free labor to restore the ecology to increase agricultural productivity and production to avoid food insecurity and improve their general livelihood. Availability of institutions in terms of grassroots organizations and rules and regulations was a major factor in the positive response to the call for action. The commitment of the government at both the national and local levels (through sensitization and mobilization for group formation and provision of tools and construction materials); the ethnic homogeneity of the population; and the existence of the Orthodox Church, where most of the people were members, were major factors for the success of the community mobilization for collective action in Tigray. Social networking with neighbors, the clergy, and leaders of grassroots organizations provided the knowledge and information on climate variability and solutions required to conserve the ecology and improve human livelihood. We also observed that there were no differences in gender division of labor except that women worked half the workload of men in a day; the women also did the cooking and cleaned up the surroundings after eating at the site. Both men and women played active roles in leadership with regard to mobilization of people, communal work planning and scheduling, conflict resolution, and sharing of community products. An impact assessment of the ecological conservation in Tigray on agricultural productivity and production and food security would be useful. It will be interesting to replicate the study in other areas in Ethiopia and other countries where the societies may not be homogenous to find out the level of commitment of the people to communal work.

× The Ethiopian government has been promoting a package-driven extension that combines credit, fertilizers, improved seeds, and better management practices. This approach has reached almost all farming communities, representing about 2 percent of agricultural gross domestic product in recent years. This paper is the first to look at the extent and determinants of the adoption of the fertilizer-seed technology package promoted in Ethiopia using nationally representative data from the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia. We estimate a double hurdle model of fertilizer use for four major cereal crops: barley, maize, teff, and wheat. Since maize is the only crop that exhibits considerable adoption of improved seed, we estimate a similar model for the adoption of improved seed in maize production. We find that access to fertilizer and seed is related to access to extension services and that production specialization together with wealth play a major role in explaining crop area under fertilizer and improved seed. One of the most important factors behind the limited adoption of the technological package is the inefficiency in the use of inputs, which implies that changes are needed in the seed and fertilizer systems and in the priorities of the extension service to promote more efficient use of inputs and to accommodate risks associated with agricultural production, especially among small and poor households.

× Ethiopia is susceptible to frequent climate extremes such as disastrous droughts and floods. These disastrous climatic events, which have caused significant adverse effects on the country's economy and society, are expected to become more pronounced in the future under climate change. To identify the potential threat of climate change to the Ethiopian economy, this study analyzes three major factors that are changing under global warming: water availability under higher temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, the impact of changing precipitation patterns on flooding, and the potential impact on crop production of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect. These issues are analyzed based on an existing multi-market-sector model for the Ethiopian economy, with a focus on agriculture. Our analysis finds that the major impact of climate change on Ethiopia's economy will result from more frequent occurrence of extreme hydrologic events, which cause losses in both the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors. To adapt to these long-term changes, Ethiopia should invest in enhanced water control to expand irrigation and improve flood protection.

× Despite the promise of many new farm technologies, technology adoption rates in Ethiopia remain low. This paper studies the impact of social networks on technology adoption through social learning. In addition to geographic networks, intentional relationships are considered. The differential impacts by network type, technology, and asset poverty status are explored. We find evidence that although social learning occurs, it is more consistent for households not in poverty traps than for those that are persistently asset poor. Social learning among rural households is stronger for more complex technologies and is associated with intentional relationships rather than with geographic networks.

× Effective poverty reduction programs require careful measurement of poverty status. Several studies have shown conceptually that assets reflecting productive capacity form a more robust basis for identifying the poor than do flow variables such as expenditures or income. Nonetheless, little work has empirically compared poverty measurements based on assets and expenditures. This paper uses panel data from Ethiopia to generate an asset-based poverty classification scheme. Regression results are used to estimate an asset index and classify households into categories of structural poverty. Asset index dynamics are also explored to test for the existence of multiple asset index equilibria; evidence of potential poverty traps. Results provide evidence of multiple equilibria in the study sample as a whole as well as convergence at different levels over space, depending on commercialization opportunities and agroecological factors. The asset-based poverty classifications consistently predict future poverty status more accurately than do income-based measures, confirming that the asset-based measure could be used to more carefully target poverty interventions in rural areas and to more accurately assess the impact of those interventions.

× We conduct a framed field experiment in rural Ethiopia to test the seminal hypothesis that insurance provision induces farmers to take greater, yet profitable, risks. Farmers participated in a game protocol in which they were asked to make a simple decision: whether to purchase fertilizer, and if so, how many bags. The return to fertilizer was dependent on a stochastic weather draw made in each round of the game protocol. In later rounds of the game protocol, a random selection of farmers made this decision in the presence of a stylized weather-index insurance contract. Insurance was found to have some positive effect on fertilizer purchases. Purchases were also found to depend on the realization of the weather in the previous round. We explore the mechanisms of this relationship and find that it may be the result of both changes in wealth weather brings about and changes in perceptions of the costs and benefits of fertilizer purchases.

× This paper identifies the cumulative impact of early schooling investments on later schooling outcomes in the context of a developing country, using enrollment status and relative grade attainment (RGA) as short- and long-run measures of schooling. Using a child-level longitudinal dataset from rural Ethiopia, we estimate a dynamic conditional schooling demand function where the coefficient estimate on the lagged dependent variable captures the impact of all previous periods’ schooling inputs and resources. We find that this lagged dependent variable indicates a strong positive association between current and lagged schooling. Past history matters more for girls than boys and for children from higher-income households compared with the poor.

× Rural nonfarm development plays a key role in generating employment in many developing countries. Clustering is an important form of industrial organization in the rural nonfarm sector. Based on a primary survey of both urban and rural handloom weaver clusters in Ethiopia, one of the country’s most important rural nonfarm sectors, this paper examines the mechanism and performance of clustering. That cluster-based handloom production survives even in remote rural areas illustrates its vitality in restricted environments. In the absence of financial institutions, clustered producers set up interconnected trade credit linkages to ease working capital constraints. Moreover, geographical clustering enables entrepreneurs with limited capital to enter the business through shared workspaces and fine division of labor. Despite the viability of the clustering model of production operating in harsh environments, an improvement in infrastructure can further enhance firm performance in a cluster. Our survey indicates that producers in electrified towns work longer hours than those in towns without electricity. In addition, the rental cost of shared lit workspaces is minimal, attracting more poor entrepreneurs to participate in handloom production than would otherwise be possible.

× In this paper we investigate the role of poultry in households' livelihoods portfolios and the impact of supply-and-demand shocks that may be caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) on households' various livelihoods outcomes in four Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The study countries include Ethiopia and Kenya in East Africa and Ghana and Nigeria in West Africa. These countries represent a spectrum of SSA countries regarding disease status, means of disease spread, and the role of the poultry sector in the economy. By using nationally representative household-level secondary data and discrete choice methods (probit and zero-inflated negative binomial models), we profile the household, farm, and regional characteristics of those households that are most likely to keep poultry and those households that are most likely to be engaged in intensive poultry production (that is, to keep larger household flocks). We estimate the ex ante impact of HPAI outbreaks and scares/threats on livelihoods outcomes by using the propensity score matching approach. The results of this study generate valuable information regarding the role of poultry in the livelihoods of small-scale poultry-producing households and the livelihoods impacts of HPAI-induced supply-and-demand shocks. Such information is critical for the design of targeted, and hence effective, HPAI control and mitigation policies.

× Do the economic effects of potential avian flu outbreaks justify policy attention and resource allocation in a poor country like Ethiopia? We address this question by assessing both economywide (macro-level) economic impacts and household (micro-level) livelihood impacts that might be caused by an avian flu outbreak in Ethiopia. Because 1) the prevalent traditional poultry sector is weakly linked to other sectors, 2) livelihoods of the poultry-producing households are diversified, and 3) shocks are idiosyncratic in nature, the study finds that the impacts of an avian flu outbreak are likely to be small and limited to producers who keep larger flocks. Therefore, allotment of funds to prevent the disease must be justified on the grounds of preventing spread of the disease to human populations in Ethiopia and in other countries where it might have more severe economic and health effects. In other words, resource allocation must be justified as a global public good.

× This study adopted the multinomial logit model to analyze factors affecting the choice of coping strategies in response to climate extreme events for the Ethiopian Nile River Basin. Results from the multinomial logit model show that different socioeconomic and environmental factors affect coping with climate extreme events. Factors that positively influence coping include education of the head of household, gender of household head being male, farm income, livestock ownership, access to extension for crop and livestock production, farmer-to-farmer extension, temperature, ownership of radio, and better-quality house. Thus, to increase coping with covariate shocks, such as climate extreme events, policies should encourage income generation and asset holding (especially livestock), both of which will support consumption smoothing during and immediately after harsh climatic events. Moreover, government policies should focus on developing institutions that enhance access to education and extension services.

× In recent years access to safe and reliable water supplies has received increased government attention in Ethiopia. As a result, the national coverage rate for this service has gradually improved. Yet millions of people in rural areas still do not get drinking water from an improved water source. While expanding improved water source schemes is generally essential, it is equally important to ensure that the schemes have increased users' satisfaction with water quality and availability for everyday use. Using household survey data and employing univariate and bivariate probit models, this paper attempts to investigate the effect of access to an improved water source on users' satisfaction with both quality and availability of water. The study findings suggest that access to an improved water source significantly raised household satisfaction with both quality and availability of water. However, the effect of the improved water source on users' satisfaction was slightly lower for water availability than for water quality.

× Using data from microenterprises of the handloom sector in four regions of Ethiopia, the paper shows that clustering, through specialization and division of labor, can lower entry barriers by reducing the initial capital required to start a business. This effect is found to be significantly larger for microenterprises investing in districts with higher levels of capital market inefficiency, indicating the importance of clustering as an organizational response to a constrained credit environment. The findings highlight the importance of cluster-based industrial activities as an alternative method of propagating industrialization when local conditions do not allow easy access to credit.

× Eighty-three percent of the population of Ethiopia depends directly on agriculture for their livelihoods, while many others depend on agriculture-related cottage industries such as textiles, leather, and food oil processing. Agriculture contributes about 46.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) (World Bank 2008) and up to 90 percent of total export earnings. As part of the current five-year (2006–2011) Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP), the government is continuing to invest heavily in agriculture. A core part of the government’s investment in agriculture is the public agricultural extension system. This study was conducted to assess the strengths and constraints of the public extension system and to provide suggestions on “best fit” solutions and their scale-up opportunities. The review used a variety of analytical tools to develop the overall findings, including extensive field visits to six of nine regions in Ethiopia; interviews with farmer trainees at farmer training centers (FTCs), more than 100 extension personnel, extension experts, nongovernmental organization (NGO) groups, and government representatives; and a literature review on Ethiopian extension. The study assessed strengths and constraints in the field-level extension system, the ATVET system, and the extension institutional environment. The researchers also considered the overall enabling environment within which extension operates. The field-level extension service has a strong foundation of FTCs and trained development agents (DAs) already in place in the field. Roughly 8,489 FTCs have been created throughout Ethiopia, and about 62,764 DAs have been trained in total, with a reported 45,812 staffed on location. Woreda (district) and regional offices are adequately staffed. DAs and woreda staff have strong technical skills and theoretical knowledge, and are generally trained as specialists. Pockets of entrepreneurialism and innovation exist in specific FTCs and woredas. While acknowledging these strengths, the researchers also identified several sets of constraints within the field-level extension system that will require attention. Basic infrastructure and resources at the FTC and woreda level remain a major constraint, particularly in relation to operating funds: the vast majority of FTCs and kebeles do not have operating equipment or inputs to pursue typical extension activities on the demonstration farm. There are major “soft” skill gaps for DAs and subject matter specialists (SMSs) in the FTCs and woredas, and their ability to serve farmers is limited given a lack of practical skills. Finally, the overall field-level system is often limited in its ability to meet farmer needs and demands; mechanisms to make it more farmer-driven and market-oriented would yield greater results. The authors employed a similar approach at the ATVET level to identify strengths and constraints. Strengths at the ATVET level include a strong record of training broad groups of DAs, a strong technical curriculum, and some pockets of innovation and practical training, including linkages to markets and farmers. Constraints include limited success in enabling DAs to gain practical experience, particularly related to their internships at the woreda level; limited linkages to the broader educational system and research system in Ethiopia; and a general lack of resources to effectively transmit the required skill set to DAs. The countrywide enabling environment in which extension operates is critical to extension efforts. Various aspects of the enabling environment were considered, including seed and other inputs, water management, and credit systems, as well as producer groups. Constraints were also assessed, leading to the conclusion that the enabling environment requires strengthening, particularly in the areas of seed and credit, if extension is to achieve its full potential impact.

× This study measures the vulnerability of farmers to climatic extremes such as droughts, floods and hailstorms, by employing the "vulnerability as expected poverty" approach. This approach is based on estimating the probability that a given shock or set of shocks will move household consumption below a given minimum level (such as the consumption poverty line) or force the consumption level to stay below the given minimum if it is already below this level. The utilized data come from a household survey of farmers performed during the 2004/2005 production year in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The results show that the farmers' vulnerability is highly sensitive to their minimum daily requirement (poverty line). For instance, when the daily minimum income is fixed at 0.3 United States dollars (USD) per day, only 12.4 percent of farmers are vulnerable to climate extremes, whereas 99 percent of farmers are vulnerable when the minimum requirement is fixed at 2 USD per day. The results further indicate that farmers in kola agro-ecological zones (which are warm and semi-arid) are the most vulnerable to extreme climatic events. Policy-wise, these preliminary results indicate that, keeping other factors constant, increasing the incomes of farmers (with special emphasis on those in kola agro-ecological zones) and enabling them to meet their daily minimum requirements will reduce their vulnerability to climatic extremes.

× "The A stochastic frontier production function is used to estimate agricultural efficiency index. Then, controlling for household characteristics and other exogenous variables, the efficiency index is regressed on the probability of being sick. Estimation is performed using the treatment effect model where the probability of being sidelined by sickness is modeled as a probit. This framework allows policy simulations that underscore the impact of farmers’ health status on both agricultural efficiency and poverty reduction. Overall, regression results confirm the negative impact of health impediment on farmers’ agricultural efficiency. Simulation results show that improving farmers’ agricultural efficiency by investing in farmers’ health may not necessarily lead to poverty reduction. Additional policy instruments may be needed to achieve simultaneous increase in agricultural productivity and reduction in poverty rate." --from authors' abstract

× "Previous studies implicitly assume uniform price-effects across regions or provinces within countries. They also do not address the issue of integration between the world food market and local markets. Instead, they assume a complete transmission of changes in world food prices to local food prices. In this paper, we first establish evidence of regional price heterogeneity across Ethiopia. We also applied the Johansen test for market integration over 95 local maize markets and found that none of the Ethiopian regional markets for maize is integrated to the world market. However, there is significant short-term price effects between the world maize market and some Ethiopian regional markets. Using the Almost Ideal Demand System, we estimate loss in household consumption and calorie intake as induced by food price increases. The results suggest a great deal of heterogeneity across regions as well as between rural and urban areas. Studies that fail to account for the characteristics of household demand across locations are more likely to induce misleading policy recommendations. " --from authors' abstract

× "This paper uses panel data from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Malawi to examine the impacts of disasters on dynamic human capital production. Our empirical results show that accumulation of biological human capital prior to a disaster helps children maintain investments during the post-disaster period. Biological human capital formed in early childhood (for example, good long-term nutritional status) helps insure resilience to disasters by protecting schooling investments and outcomes, even though disasters have negative impacts on the actual investments (for example, by destroying schools). In Bangladesh, children with more biological human capital are less adversely affected by flood, and the rate of investment increases with the initial human capital stock during the post-disaster recovery process. In Ethiopia and Malawi, where droughts are relatively frequent, repeated drought exposure reduces schooling investments in some cases, with larger negative impacts seen among children who embody less biological human capital. Asset holdings prior to disaster (especially intellectual human capital stock in the household) also help maintain schooling investments to at least the same degree as the stock of human capital accumulated in the children prior to the disaster. Our results suggest that as the frequency of natural disasters increases due to global warming, the insurance value of investments in child nutrition will increase. Public investments in child nutrition therefore have the potential to effectively protect long-term human capital formation among children who are vulnerable to natural disasters." --from authors' abstract

× "The rapidly changing nature of the global food and agriculture system suggests the need to rethink how innovation can contribute to developing-country agriculture. While scientific and technological changes in agriculture can help foster productivity growth and poverty reduction, their contributions are incomplete without commensurate changes in the wider system of which they are a part. A more systems-oriented understanding of how innovation occurs in a society and economy is critical to promoting dynamism, responsiveness, and competitiveness in developing-country agriculture and, ultimately, to enhancing productivity and reducing poverty. However, without adequate measures of the properties and performance of an agricultural innovation system, it is difficult for policymakers, investors, donors, and practitioners to promote policies and investments that foster greater innovativeness in agriculture. This suggests the need for a measure of agricultural innovativeness that preferably extends beyond the “black box” approach of measuring only inputs and outputs, focusing on the underlying processes that contribute to building the capabilities needed to create an innovative agricultural sector. To this end, this paper attempts to provide a “proof of concept” that innovativeness in developing-country agriculture can be measured. It first identifies a set of indicators from secondary data sources that measure the key elements of an agricultural innovation system. Several hundred indicators are reviewed, validated, and aggregated into a unique Agriculture, Development, and Innovation Index (ADII). The paper then provides a toolkit for collecting and analyzing “systems-oriented” indicators that add more process-related nuances to the ADII with both attributional and relational data. This is illustrated with data collected in Ethiopia and Vietnam in 2007–08." --from authors' abstract

× "This paper uses panel data from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Malawi to examine the impacts of natural disasters on schooling investments, with a particular focus on the roles of ex-ante actions and ex-post responses. We find that the importance of ex-ante actions depends on disaster risks and the likelihood of public assistance, potentially creating substitution between the two actions. We find that higher future probabilities of disaster increase the likelihood of agents holding more human capital and/or livestock relative to land; this asset-portfolio effect is significant in disaster-prone areas. Our empirical results support the roles of both ex-ante and ex-post (public assistance) responses in coping with disasters, but we see interesting variations across countries. In Ethiopia, public assistance plays a more important role than ex-ante actions in mitigating the impact of shocks on child schooling. In contrast, Malawi households rely more on private ex-ante actions than on public assistance. The Bangladesh example shows that active roles are played by both ex-ante and ex-post actions. These observations are consistent with our findings on the relationship between ex-ante actions and disaster risks. Our results also show that among ex-ante actions, human capital accumulated in the household prior to disasters helps mitigate the negative effects of a disaster in both the short and long runs." --from authors' abstract

× This study investigates the impact of different soil and water conservation technologies on the variance of crop production in Ethiopia to determine the risk implications of the different technologies in different regions and rainfall zones. Given the production risks posed by climate change, such information can be used by decision makers to identify appropriate agricultural practices that act as a buffer against climate change. Using a household- and plot-level data set, we apply the Just and Pope framework using a Cobb-Douglas production function to investigate the impact of various soil and water conservation technologies on average crop yields and the variance of crop yields, while controlling for several household- and plot-level factors. Results show that soil and water conservation investments perform differently in different rainfall areas and regions of Ethiopia, which underscores the importance of careful geographical targeting when promoting and scaling up soil and water conservation technologies. We find that although soil bunds, stone bunds, grass strips, waterways, and contours all have very significant positive impacts on average crop yields in low-rainfall areas, only soil bunds have significant risk-reducing effects in these areas with low agricultural potential. We also find that irrigation and use of improved seeds have insignificant risk-reducing effects in low-rainfall areas, suggesting that—as currently implemented—these interventions may not be appropriate adaptation strategies for these environments. Regionally, in the low-rainfall areas we find significant spatial heterogeneity, with soil bunds being risk reducing in Oromiya and Amhara, and stone bunds, grass strips, and waterways being risk reducing in the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples Region. Irrigation was only risk reducing in the high-rainfall areas of Benishangul-Gumuz. These results remain robust even after controlling for the major crops grown on the plot. Results show that soil and water conservation technologies have significant impacts on reducing production risk in Ethiopia and could be part of the country’s climate-proofing strategy. However, results also show that one-size-fits-all recommendations are not appropriate given the differences in agro-ecology and other confounding factors.

× This study identifies the major methods used by farmers to adapt to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia, the factors that affect their choice of method, and the barriers to adaptation. The methods identified include use of different crop varieties, tree planting, soil conservation, early and late planting, and irrigation. Results from the discrete choice model employed indicate that the level of education, gender, age, and wealth of the head of household; access to extension and credit; information on climate, social capital, agroecological settings, and temperature all influence farmers' choices. The main barriers include lack of information on adaptation methods and financial constraints. Moreover, the analysis reveals that age of the household head, wealth, information on climate change, social capital, and agroecological settings have significant effects on farmers' perceptions of climate change.

× "This paper assesses the impact of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme (PSNP), the largest social protection program in Sub-Saharan Africa outside of South Africa. Using Propensity Score Matching techniques, we find that the program has little impact on participants on average, due in part to transfer levels that fell far below program targets. Beneficiary households that received at least half of the intended transfers experienced a significant improvement in food security by some measures. However, households with access to both the PSNP and packages of agricultural support were more likely to be food secure, to borrow for productive purposes, use improved agricultural technologies, and operate their own nonfarm business activities. For these households, there is no evidence of disincentive effects in terms of labor supply or private transfers. However, estimates show that beneficiaries did not experience faster asset growth as a result of the programs. " --from authors' abstract