Books and Book Chapters

Despite COVID-19, food consumption remains steady in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

There is substantial concern that global food insecurity is increasing as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Organizations such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), World Food Programme (WFP), and CGIAR are trying to get a clear picture of the growing challenges people may be facing, but the nature of the pandemic makes data on food security and daily living hard to obtain. Because face-to-face surveys have largely not been possible during the pandemic, much of what we know about actual changes in food security status comes from phone surveys. These surveys suggest large proportions of respondents are facing falling incomes; the World Bank reports declines in incomes and food security where they have conducted phone surveys.

Resilience of urban value chains during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from dairy and vegetable chains in Ethiopia

At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many researchers and international organizations voiced concerns about the resilience of food value chains amid lockdowns and border closures, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (Laborde et al. 2020; Reardon, Bellemare, and Zilberman 2020; Resnick 2020). This chapter explores the pandemic’s effects on dairy and vegetable value chains in Ethiopia’s capital through mid-2021. Despite early fears about the pandemic’s impacts, survey data show that these urban value chains quickly rebounded after an initial period of fragility, demonstrating resilience over the research period. Amid tremendous uncertainty and market volatility, most value chain actors also indicated that the pandemic had not negatively affected their business activities.

Selected country experiences during the pandemic: Policy responses and CGIAR support

With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, CGIAR pivoted its research planning to better support countries as they responded to the crisis. Despite the unprecedented, highly disruptive nature of the pandemic, CGIAR’s collaborative country work has enhanced engagement across the agrifood sector, leveraged existing capacities, and improved awareness of vulnerabilities within value chains. The insights gained from this experience may ultimately prove useful in addressing other longstanding challenges as well. In this chapter, we recount selected country experiences during the pandemic and the response of the international agricultural research system to support these countries. In the section on country experiences, we draw from IFPRI’s COVID-19 Policy Response Portal (CPR) to focus on lockdown policies in Bangladesh, Kenya, and Nigeria. We describe the steps taken by governments in these countries to address challenges in the agrifood sector and provide social protection to the vulnerable.

Ethiopia’s social safety net effective in limiting COVID-19 impacts on rural food insecurity

The COVID-19 pandemic is undermining food and nutrition security on a global scale. IFPRI estimates show that globally, 80–140 million people were at risk of falling into extreme poverty in 2020, more than half in Africa south of the Sahara. The World Food Programme estimated that globally, the number of people facing acute food insecurity could double in the same period. These impacts — stemming from lost incomes due to lockdowns, fear of exposure, and medical expenses, as well as disruptions in food markets and value chains — are severely testing social protection systems in many countries. How effective are those systems in blunting these effects?

Uneven recovery and a lingering food crisis during the COVID-19 pandemic for rural safety net transfer recipients in Ethiopia

In the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers at IFPRI and elsewhere worked quickly with their partners in government, the private sector, and survey firms to provide evidence on the immediate impacts of the COVID-19 health crisis and related restrictions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, systematic evidence on the effects of the crisis has been more limited in the ensuing months up to and after the one-year anniversary of the pandemic. Early analysis of economic models of the crisis suggested that its economic effects would be severe in the short run and greatest in Africa south of the Sahara, where the pandemic and related lockdowns were projected to depress incomes of both urban workers and rural households (Laborde, Martin, and Vos 2021). Phone surveys and rapid assessments conducted in the first weeks of the pandemic reported significant job losses in both rural and urban areas (Wieser et al. 2020), disruptions to urban food value chains (Tamru, Hirvonen, and Minten 2020), and declines in household dietary diversity in Addis Ababa (Hirvonen, de Brauw, and Abate 2021). In the time since those initial projections and rapid surveillance surveys were conducted, researchers have revisited the same samples to analyze the medium-term effects of the pandemic. In addition, they have gathered information on households at the economic margins of society and those considered to be less affected by the pandemic by virtue of their sector of employment or remote location.

An evolving paradigm for Africa and synthesis of the lessons from Asia

Africa has experienced a paradigm shift in mechanization in the past three decades. The “new paradigm” has also given rise to new challenges and policy issues. By synthesizing the recent experiences in African and Asian countries, this chapter draws lessons from Asia and Africa under this new African paradigm. In doing so, the chapter first lays out the guiding theoretical framework used in 1987 by Pingali, Bigot, and Binswanger (PBB), based on the literature on farming systems evolution and induced technological change. The chapter then describes the “new paradigm,” which builds on PBB but also integrates the additional dimension of market failures associated, on the supply side, with custom hiring services, which have become the most common mode of mechanization among smallholders in developing countries. Applying this expanded framework, the chapter then reviews the Asian experience first. It highlights how mechanization has grown in the continent, having largely avoided supply-side market failures, thanks to several factors: smaller machine sizes;1 increased opportunities for multifunctional uses of machines; more secure land tenures that allow integration with formal credit markets; and the supportive, rather than distortive, nature of government subsidy policies. The chapter then turns to the experiences in Africa south of the Sahara (“Africa” hereafter) and highlights the emerging patterns of spatial variations in demand that are still largely consistent with the PBB framework. However, the chapter also stresses that market failures associated with custom hiring services on the supply side are substantial due to features unique to Africa, including the dominant types of large tractors, in addition to higher financial constraints on tractor ownership resulting from lack of secure land tenures and weak penetration of formal credit markets, as well as other barriers due to limited multifunctionality, lack of migratory services due to insufficient infrastructure and coordination failures, and insufficient technologies complementary to mechanization. Based on country experiences in Asia and Africa, the chapter also highlights key government policies that have not always been successful, including import restrictions (or removal thereof), inefficient technology and skill promotion, and insufficient provision of public goods. Last, given the country experiences and the identified appropriate roles of governments, the chapter concludes by describing the key lessons that are important for Africa’s mechanization pathway forward, including (1) understanding the emerging nature of demand, (2) actively promoting private hiring services, (3) eliminating or reducing distortions, and (4) prioritizing the mechanization technologies appropriate for African contexts.

The rapid-but from a low base-uptake of agricultural mechanization in Ethiopia: Patterns, implications, and challenges

The uptake of agricultural mechanization in Ethiopia is low, with less than 1 percent of agricultural plots plowed with a tractor. However, in recent years the uptake of agricultural machinery has accelerated. We note an impressive increase in imports of combine harvesters and of tractors, seemingly associated with the increasing costs of agricultural labor and animal traction, for which agricultural mechanization can substitute. We estimate that a quarter of the area in Ethiopia planted with wheat—the fourth most important cereal in the country—is currently harvested by combine harvesters, and they are widely used in the major wheat-growing zones in the southeast of the country in particular. Private mechanization service providers have rapidly emerged. Smallholders in these wheat-growing zones rely heavily on agricultural machinery rental services for plowing, harrowing, and harvesting. We find that mechanization is associated with significantly lower labor use, and that the adoption of combine harvesters—but not tractors—is significantly associated with higher yields, seemingly due to lower postharvest losses. Although further expansion of mechanization in the country is desired given the environmental and financial costs of holding oxen, and the higher yields linked with some forms of mechanization, it appears to be hampered by farm structures, particularly small farm sizes and consequent limits in scale; fragmented plots; crop diversity; physical constraints, such as the presence of stones, steep fields, and certain soil types; and economic and financial constraints, including limited access to foreign exchange and credit, and the still relatively low wages in less commercialized zones.

Food security

Chapter 10, “Food Security,” describes the evolution of poverty and food security between 2010/2011 and 2015/2016 and examines the seasonality of food insecurity. Household survey data from 2016 show that Ethiopia continues to face high levels of food insecurity: daily energy consumption is low (3,055 kilocalories per adult on average), and diet quality is poor (starchy staples account for 71.6 percent of calories). There has been relatively little change in the composition of diets between 2011 and 2016, although the diets of the poorest half of the population (especially in rural areas) improved slightly with less reliance on starchy staples and greater dietary diversity. The authors find substantial seasonal patterns, however, with marked variations in energy (calorie) consumption, which is highest in postharvest periods. Regression analysis using the 2015/2016 data reveals that that average energy intake is positively associated with total household expenditure and productive farm

Cropland expansion

Chapter 2, “Cropland Expansion,” uses spatially disaggregated satellite data to examine changes in land use over time at the national level. This is the first time that such dynamic analysis has been examined at this level. The data indicate a slowing in rate of cropland expansion in much of northern Ethiopia. The authors use results of econometric analysis of land use changes over time to estimate maximum potential economic cropland across space and potential land expansion. The analysis suggests little scope for further crop expansion in the drier parts of the highland but ample opportunities for increased crop cultivation on underused land with sufficient rainfall in parts of western regions (especially Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella) and in the Oromia region.

Toward a medium-term agricultural and rural development strategy

Finally, Chapter 14, “Toward a Medium-Term Agricultural and Rural Development Strategy,” highlights the book’s major themes and discusses implications for policy. In particular, the authors emphasize the importance of continued investments to increase agricultural productivity, market efficiency, and infrastructure (roads, small-scale irrigation, and electricity generation) to support both agriculture and the rural and small-town nonfarm economy. Without these investments substantial poverty increases and growing inequality are likely to result, even if there is rapid overall economic growth.

Droughts, cereal prices, and price stabilization options

Chapter 9, “Droughts, Cereal Prices, and Price Stabilization Options,” looks at price volatility, causes, and policy options. Increases in cereal prices in Ethiopia often raise concerns about adverse effects for poor net consumers. In particular, the frequent natural calamities—especially droughts—in Ethiopia can lead to important price hikes. But domestic prices of some cereals (especially maize) fluctuate every year with prices at harvest times substantially dropping, to the detriment of producers. Price stabilization efforts are therefore an important consideration for Ethiopian policymakers. This chapter sheds light on options for cereal price stabilization in Ethiopia drawing on experiences of other developing countries. The international experience in food price stabilization shows that while some countries have achieved success, the efforts of many others have actually destabilized market prices at great fiscal costs. When assessing the extent to which price stabilization efforts in Ethiopia were effective during the major El Niño–induced droughts of 2015 and 2016 (including food aid distributed through the PSNP), the authors find that an opportunity was missed to enhance food security and consumer welfare by allowing private-sector imports to minimize the rise in cereal prices as well as to reduce the fiscal costs to the government and donors.

Evolving livestock sector

Chapter 5, “Evolving Livestock Sector,” shows that livestock is important in Ethiopia’s agricultural economy as almost all farmers own some livestock. Overall livestock output is shown to have grown rapidly over the past decade, estimated at almost 6 percent per year, but about 80 percent of that growth came from increases in the number of livestock. The stock of different livestock species was about 50 percent higher in 2015 than a decade earlier, while modern input use and improvements in production methods contributed little to growth in the livestock sector. Linked to improved access to extension and markets, adoption of improved breeds and improved feeding practices increased, but such adoption patterns started from a very low base. Within the livestock sector, cattle are dominant, making up an estimated three-quarters of the value of livestock stock. However, the share of cattle in total livestock output is declining, and small ruminants are on the rise, especially in pastoralist areas. Given the rapid growth in livestock numbers and the increasing Structural Transformation and the Agricultural Food System: An An Introduction 13 livestock density per unit of land, the authors find that feeding practices are changing. Grazing land is declining in availability, so reliance on commercial feed markets is increasing. Access to vaccinations and veterinary service provision have improved, and livestock death rates declined slightly over the past decade. However, the number of livestock lost to deaths is still more than twice the number sold for meat production, indicating important challenges remaining for the development of the livestock sector in Ethiopia.

Evolving food value chains

The second part of the book, “Evolving Markets and Household Consumption,” begins with Chapter 7 on “Evolving Food Value Chains.” Ethiopia’s food systems are changing rapidly as high population growth, rapid urbanization, major infrastructure investments, and substantial income growth are leading to dietary, agricultural, and supply chain transformations. Over the past two decades, calorie consumption has risen, the share of starchy staples in the diet has fallen, and the shares of high-value products (such as animal-sourced foods, fruits and vegetables, processed convenience foods, and out-of-home food consumption) have risen. At the same time, use of fertilizer, improved seeds, and mechanization is increasing. Nonetheless, smallholders, who have an average agricultural area of 1.0 hectare per holder and who cultivate 93 percent of the agricultural land in Ethiopia, are facing increasing land constraints: farm sizes are declining over time and, in comparison to older farmers, younger farmers are more reliant on land rental markets to access the land that they farm. The transformation of agricultural supply chains is especially rapid, providing for increases in employment. Agricultural commercial surpluses are rapidly growing, and modern food marketing methods and technologies have emerged, including mobile phones, a commodity exchange, and an incipient modern retail sector and food service sector. Domestic markets are better integrated as spatial and seasonal price margins have narrowed. External trade has also expanded since 2000 despite high transport costs and foreign exchange restrictions.

Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios

Ethiopia has experienced impressive agricultural growth and poverty reduction, stemming in part from substantial public investments in agriculture. Yet, the agriculture sector now faces increasing land and water constraints along with other challenges to growth. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System: Past Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Scenarios presents a forward-looking analysis of Ethiopia’s agrifood system in the context of a rapidly changing economy. Growth in the agriculture sector remains essential to continued poverty reduction in Ethiopia and will depend on sustained investment in the agrifood system, especially private sector investment. Many of the policies for a successful agricultural and rural development strategy for Ethiopia are relevant for other African countries, as well. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System should be a valuable resource for policymakers, development specialists, and others concerned with economic development in Africa south of the Sahara.

This book was funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, formerly known as DfID. The name change occured on September 1, 2020. References in the book may refer to the former name.

This record also includes the following synopsis:
Dorosh, Paul A.; and Minten, Bart. 2020. Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios: Synopsis. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896296930

Urbanization and structural transformation

Chapter 12, “Urbanization and Structural Transformation,” describes patterns of urbanization in Ethiopia and government policy to promote development of secondary cities. Official population data indicate rapid urban growth, 4.2 percent per year between 1994 and 2015, far outpacing the overall population growth rate of 2.5 percent. By 2050 urbanization is expected to reach 38 percent with major implications for relative wage rates in rural versus urban areas, infrastructure needs, and public service delivery. Improved road infrastructure is improving connectivity across the country and promoting secondary city development. In addition, recent public investments to promote industrialization and increase manufacturing labor opportunities via newly constructed and planned industrial parks, though small relative to the overall economy, are designed to be a catalyst for future growth.

Farm size, food security, and welfare

Chapter 6, “Farm Size, Food Security, and Welfare,” looks at the association of farm sizes with food security and welfare. This is an important issue in Ethiopian agriculture given that a growing rural population combined with limited scope for further land expansion and slow movement out of agriculture means that average (mean) farm sizes are decreasing in Ethiopia. Using cross-sectional data for the Ethiopian highlands, the authors find—surprisingly—small differences between owners of small and large farms in key welfare and food security outcomes. For example, a 20 percent increase in owned land area is associated with only a 0.7 percent increase in food consumption (measured in calories). Five adjustments are made by households residing on small farms to assure similar calorie intake as those residing on larger farms.12 First, they participate actively in land rental markets and, as a result, are able to double their cultivated land area on average. Second, they compensate their small landholdings with other income sources, mainly livestock and nonfarm businesses, permitting additional food purchases. Third, they cultivate their land more intensively, obtaining higher yields. Fourth, they favor more calorie-dense crops that are mostly used for their own consumption. Fifth, they produce as well as consume cheaper food items.

Agricultural extension: Global status and performance in selected countries

Agricultural transformation and development are critical to the livelihoods of more than a billion small-scale farmers and other rural people in developing countries. Extension and advisory services play an important role in such transformation and can assist farmers with advice and information, brokering and facilitating innovations and relationships, and dealing with risks and disasters. Agricultural Extension: Global Status and Performance in Selected Countries provides a global overview of agricultural extension and advisory services, assesses and compares extension systems at the national and regional levels, examines the performance of extension approaches in a selected set of country cases, and shares lessons and policy insights. Drawing on both primary and secondary data, the book contributes to the literature on extension by applying a common and comprehensive framework — the “best-fit” approach — to assessments of extension systems, which allows for comparison across cases and geographies. Insights from the research support reforms — in governance, capacity, management, and advisory methods — to improve outcomes, enhance financial sustainability, and achieve greater scale. Agricultural Extension should be a valuable resource for policymakers, extension practitioners, and others concerned with agricultural development.

Forward by Gary Alex. Preface by Frank Place. This book was translated into Japanese in 2022.
Davis, Kristin E., ed.; Babu, Suresh Chandra, ed.; and Ragasa, Catherine, ed. 2020. Agricultural extension: Global status and performance in selected countries [in Japanese]. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136539

This record also includes the following synopsis:
Davis, Kristin E., ed.; Babu, Suresh Chandra, ed.; and Ragasa, Catherine, ed. 2020. Agricultural extension: Global status and performance in selected countries: Synopsis. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896293762

Introduction and motivation

Agricultural development is critical to the livelihoods of more than a billion small-scale farmers and other rural populations in developing countries. Challenges such as low productivity, persistent food insecurity and malnutrition, food price crises, natural resource depletion, changing and uncertain markets, environmental degradation, and climate change directly impact (and are impacted by) the agriculture sector and rural development. Agricultural extension and advisory services can help address these challenges by assisting farmers with advice and information, brokering and facilitating innovations and relationships, dealing with risks and disasters, and in many other ways.

Public investments and poverty reduction

Chapter 13, “Public Investments and Poverty Reduction,” presents results of general equilibrium simulations of the impacts of alternative investment strategies, focusing on national income (GDP) and incomes of the poorest 40 percent of the population in both rural and urban areas. These simulations, which incorporate the major factors discussed in this book—including land constraints, productivity growth, migration, expanding markets, rising incomes and consumption, and greater urbanization—show that although urban investments generate faster economic growth and structural transformation, investments in the rural economy are likely to continue to be more pro-poor than urban public investments through the mid-2020s. After the mid-2020s, investments in cities become more pro-poor. The authors show that though rapid economic growth and structural transformation have diminished the relative importance of the agricultural sector in Ethiopia’s economy, continued public investments in agriculture and the broader agrifood system remain crucial for equity and poverty alleviation (and for a reduction of food import dependency) in Ethiopia.

Structural transformation and the agricultural food system: An introduction

Ethiopia’s agricultural sector has grown rapidly since 2000 due to a doubling in the use of modern inputs (chemical fertilizers and improved seeds), significant land expansion, increased labor use, and a 2.3 percent per year growth in total factor productivity (TFP) (Bachewe et al. 2018). At the same time, there has been a substantial spatial and structural transformation of the economy. Ethiopia’s urban population has more than doubled in the past 20 years (from 7.3 million in 1994 to 17.5 million in 2015), and nonagricultural output has grown rapidly so that the share of nonagriculture in GDP has risen from less than half in 2000 to about two-thirds today. Moreover, household welfare indicators have improved dramatically as rural poverty fell from 45 percent in 1999–2000 to 23.5 percent in 2015–2016 (Figure 1.1). Measures of malnutrition of children also improved significantly. For example, from 2000 to 2016 the child stunting rate fell from 58 percent to 38 percent while the share of children that are underweight declined from 41 percent to 24 percent over the same period (Ethiopia, CSA and ICF 2016; NPC 2017) (Figure 1.2). However, wasting only declined by 2 percent.

Conclusions and policy implications [In Agricultural Extension]

The two objectives of this book are to assess extension and advisory services in a cross-country comparative context in the following ways: 1. Provide a description and comparison of the existing extension services in the regions and countries under consideration focused on a set of characteristics; and 2. Provide an assessment of the performance of extension services provision and impact evaluation of extension approaches in selected case study countries. Objective 1 addresses specific extension characteristics from the best-fit framework that include governance structures, capacity, management, and advisory methods. Part 1 offers a global overview based on primary data as well as regional and country cases based on primary and secondary data. Objective 2 undertakes in-depth country-level case studies based on primary and secondary data (Part 2). The best-fit conceptual framework allows some comparability of selected characteristics and results across geographies. The book generates specific policy recommendations that will be of use to government agencies, development partners, academics, and coordinating bodies for agricultural extension services. With the best-fit framework that allows for comparative analysis of selected characteristics (governance structures, capacity, management, and advisory methods), the book also demonstrates the process of extension system assessment through country-level case studies.

Evolving animal-sourced foods and livestock markets

Chapter 8, “Evolving Animal Sourced Foods and Livestock Markets,” covers the changing situation in livestock marketing systems. The authors find that in many developing countries in which staple foods dominate the composition of diets, higher consumption of animal-sourced foods (ASF) is associated with significant nutritional benefits. Given the importance of prices for consumption decisions in these settings, they analyze ASF price patterns, relying on a large-scale price dataset collected in 116 urban retail markets in Ethiopia. The authors document important seasonal and spatial patterns, and they find, worryingly, that real prices of ASF have been increasing over the past decade by between 32 percent and 36 percent for three major ASFs—milk, eggs, and meat. Similar price increases are noted in rural and urban areas as well as for tradable and nontradable ASFs. This price trend is in contrast with staple cereals for which real prices stayed at similar levels over the past decade. As they estimate that a price increase of this magnitude would reduce consumption of ASF by approximately 25 percent, holding other things constant, it seems that more investments and attention to the production of ASF and the livestock sector are needed to reduce ASF prices and increase their consumption in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia [In Agricultural Extension]

This chapter takes stock of the provision of extension services in line with the country’s development and suggests ways such services might contribute to accelerating agricultural growth and poverty reduction in the years ahead. Ethiopia has invested significantly in its extension system, in line with national policies that place a high priority on boosting agricultural production and productivity. Ethiopia is considered a leading country globally in the provision of extension services to farmers and has the highest extension agent-to-farmer ratio of any country. Ethiopia presents an interesting case, as it is one of few African countries to have placed agriculture at the forefront of its economic development policies, having invested heavily in the sector over the past two decades. Unlike many countries where private-sector extension services expanded following drastic public funding cuts to their extension systems in the 1980s and 1990s (Zhou and Babu 2015), Ethiopia’s extension system remains predominantly public.

Nonfarm income and rural labor markets

The third part of the book presents “Economywide Perspectives” on the future of Ethiopian agriculture. Chapter 11, “Nonfarm Income and Rural Labor Markets,” examines how the rapid transformation in Ethiopia’s economy is affecting off-farm income and labor markets in rural areas.13 Data from a large-scale household survey in high potential agricultural areas show that total off-farm income (defined as wage and enterprise income) makes up 18 percent of total rural household income. The shares of off-farm income and wage income are even larger for the poor and for female- and youth-headed households. Moreover, given strong growth in agriculture and the overall Ethiopian economy, real rural wages have increased by 54 percent since 2006. While this wage increase is good news for the poor, it also induces adjustments in agricultural production practices, including increased adoption of labor-substituting technologies such as herbicides and mechanization. Higher wages and incomes relax liquidity constraints in the off-season for some households, also contributing to higher productivity.

Crop productivity and potential

Chapter 3, “Crop Productivity and Potential,” documents and explains the causal factors for the rapid expansion in crop production in Ethiopia (official estimates show an increase in production of grain crops from 16.1 million metric tons to 30.6 million metric tons from 2007/2008 to 2017/2018). Using data on input use (such as land, improved seeds, fertilizer, and agricultural extension services), the authors estimate the combined effect of increased inputs. The residual, then, is an estimate of the gains in total factor productivity. Further rapid gains in yields seem less likely, though, given the high levels of input use already achieved. They illustrate some of the challenges in crop production, linked to the research and extension system, the limited access to irrigation, and the seed sector.

Climate change impacts on crop yields [In Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios]

Chapter 4, “Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields,” presents results of model simulations of crop yields in Ethiopia through 2085. The analysis draws on climate outcomes from 32 global climate models and an agronomic crop model to estimate effects of expected higher temperatures and, for most of Ethiopia, increased rainfall. The simulation results suggest that climate change will likely have only relatively small effects on average yields of maize, wheat, and sorghum in Ethiopia up to 2055, as agronomic conditions for cultivation of these crops may actually improve in large parts of the country. Nonetheless, crop yields will need to increase over time to enable cereal production to keep pace with expected demand growth due to increases in population and per capita incomes. Moreover, even if future changes in climate have only moderate impacts on average crop yields in Ethiopia, weather outcomes and consequent crop yields are likely to become more variable in the future.

COVID-19 and global food security

The coronavirus pandemic has sparked not only a health crisis but also an economic crisis, which together pose a serious threat to food security, particularly in poorer countries. COVID-19 & Global Food Security brings together a groundbreaking series of IFPRI blog posts looking at the impacts of COVID-19 and the policy responses. IFPRI researchers and guest bloggers provide key insights and analysis on how the global pandemic is affecting global poverty and food security and nutrition, food trade and supply chains, gender, employment, and a variety of policy interventions, as well as reflections on how we can use these lessons to better prepare for future pandemics. These pieces draw on a combination of conceptual arguments, global and country-level simulation models, in-country surveys, case studies, and expert opinions. Together, they present a comprehensive picture of the current and potential impact of COVID-19 and the world’s policy responses on global food and nutrition security.

Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on vegetable value chains in Ethiopia

The COVID-19 pandemic is beginning to disrupt food value chains in Ethiopia and elsewhere, impacting the livelihoods of farmers and the diets of rural and urban households. These effects are likely to hit the poorest and most vulnerable farmers and consumers the hardest, but they are not yet well understood. More evidence is needed to guide the government and other organizations in devising responses. While not representative of the whole value chain, our interviews with vegetable production stakeholders have a number of potential policy implications.

Survey suggests rising risk of food and nutrition insecurity in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, as COVID-19 restrictions continue

To cast light on how households in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, are reacting to the crisis, IFPRI’s Ethiopia Strategy Support Program (ESSP), with the support of the CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH), has begun a series of monthly phone surveys. Initial data demonstrate that poorer households are taking a greater economic hit than those with higher incomes, and that dietary diversity has declined. The results suggest the food security situation in Addis Ababa could sharply deteriorate in the coming weeks if disease transmission and social distancing measures continue.

COVID-19 is shifting consumption and disrupting dairy value chains in Ethiopia

The COVID-19 crisis is having a range of impacts on food consumption and value chains everywhere — containment measures, lost incomes, and perceptions of disease risk are food altering availability and consumer preferences. To understand the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on Ethiopia’s important dairy sector, we conducted a qualitative appraisal of the dairy value chain supplying Addis Ababa. Between April 15 and May 10, we interviewed nearly 100 commercial and small dairy farmers in urban and rural areas, dairy processors, traders, development agents, urban retailers, and consumers. Overall, the survey indicates that the Ethiopian dairy sector has experienced only moderate impacts — especially compared to the livestock sectors in China and other countries. However, certain segments of the industry — particularly raw milk vendors and small dairy shops — have been hit hard.

National food systems: Inclusive transformation for healthier diets

Policymakers need to know what policies, investments, and actions they can take to ensure food systems transform in a healthy, sustainable, and equitable way. KEY FINDINGS - The rapid transformation of national food systems offers new opportunities for inclusion of poor and marginalized people, potentially improving dietary diversity, food safety, and quality. - As food systems transform across the spectrum from traditional to modern, government policy goals need to shift from a focus on food security to healthy, bal-anced diets. - National food system frameworks are useful tools for looking at the drivers and components of these systems, identifying data gaps, and finding promising entry points for actions to increase inclusion and improve nutri-tion outcomes. - Approaches to food system transformation must be country specific, as each country’s food system is unique and countries face different opportunities and trade-offs for inclusiveness at different stages of transformation.

An evolving paradigm of agricultural mechanization development: How much can Africa learn from Asia?

Agricultural mechanization in Africa south of the Sahara — especially for small farms and businesses — requires a new paradigm to meet the needs of the continent’s evolving farming systems. Can Asia, with its recent success in adopting mechanization, offer a model for Africa? An Evolving Paradigm of Agricultural Mechanization Development analyzes the experiences of eight Asian and five African countries. The authors explore crucial government roles in boosting and supporting mechanization, from import policies to promotion policies to public good policies. Potential approaches presented to facilitating mechanization in Africa include prioritizing market-led hiring services, eliminating distortions, and developing appropriate technologies for the African context. The role of agricultural mechanization within overall agricultural and rural transformation strategies in Africa is also discussed. The book’s recommendations and insights should be useful to national policymakers and the development community, who can adapt this knowledge to local contexts and use it as a foundation for further research.

This record also includes the following synopsis:
Diao, Xinshen; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; and Zhang, Xiaobo, eds. 2020. An evolving paradigm of agricultural mechanization development: How much can Africa learn from Asia? Synopsis. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896293823

Rural youth and employment in Ethiopia

Chapter 5 focuses on Ethiopia’s land constraints and asks if this is driving youth off the farm and into the rural nonfarm economy.

El Niño-Southern oscillation impacts on agriculture and the national economy

A range of interventions have been identified that, if implemented, could help mitigate the adverse effects of climate shocks, such as El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, on the Ethiopian economy and the food security of its population. As outlined in Chapter 2, these interventions include, among others, on-farm investments in technology and irrigation infrastructure, investments in roads and grain storage facilities to expand and stabilize food markets, and social transfers to provide households with a cushion against immediate crises and opportunities for longer-term recovery. However, resource constraints and competing interests mean that there are sometimes trade-offs associated with pursuing policies aimed at building resilience to climate shocks versus policies aimed at achieving other development objectives. Therefore, to motivate resilience-building policies, it is necessary to assess the costs of inaction; to measure policy effectiveness using recognized outcome indicators; and to identify synergies between, say, resilience and development interventions and objectives.

Resilience building in Ethiopia: Analysis of key informant interviews

A key element of the climate resilience Gender, Climate Change, and Nutrition Integration Initiative (GCAN) framework is understanding Ethiopia’s response options and the decision-making context. To reduce dependency on emergency aid and the vulnerability of communities and ecosystems to climatic shocks, a series of programs and projects were initiated by the Ethiopian government, multilateral agencies, and bilateral donors. These aimed to build resilience and simultaneously boost economic growth, create jobs and livelihoods, and strengthen access to health and education for all communities.

The resilience landscape

This study, while focusing on climate resilience adopts the broader definition of resilience from the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction which defines resilience as: “the ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions through risk management” (UNISDR 2017). Resilience thinking helps link and integrate sectors such as infrastructure, social protection, health and reproductive health, and nutrition that have traditionally been somewhat disconnected. To ensure that appropriate connections are made, this report proposes that the government of Ethiopia and partners develop or use a resilience framework, according to which its many development programs can be structured and monitored for progress and outcomes.

Moving toward nutrition-sensitive agriculture strategies and programming in Ethiopia

This chapter begins with a discussion of Ethiopia’s various nutrition-related indicators, which show the persistence of child and adult malnutrition, despite some progress. It discusses the major programs and policies that have been launched during the past two decades within the nutrition and agriculture sectors, and at the global level too, and the synergies (and remaining gaps) between them. The sum of these developments reflect Ethiopia’s slow but promising shift to a coordinated, multisectoral approach to improving nutrition.

Agriculture for improved nutrition: Seizing the momentum

Agriculture's vast potential to improve nutrition is just beginning to be tapped. New ideas, research, and initiatives developed over the past decade have created an opportunity for reimagining and redesigning agricultural and food systems for the benefit of nutrition. To support this transformation, the book reviews the latest findings, results from on-the-ground programs and interventions, and recent policy experiences from countries around the world that are bringing the agriculture and nutrition sectors closer together. Drawing on IFPRI's own work and that of the growing agriculture-nutrition community, this book strengthens the evidence base for, and expands our vision of, how agriculture can contribute to nutrition. Chapters cover an array of issues that link agriculture and nutrition, including food value chains, nutrition-sensitive programs and policies, government policies, and private sector investments. By highlighting both achievements and setbacks, Agriculture for Improved Nutrition seeks to inspire those who want to scale up successes that can transform food systems and improve the nutrition of billions of people.

Performance and institutions of the Ethiopian coffee sector

Agricultural markets in Ethiopia

Livestock production in Ethiopia

The transformation of smallholder crop production in Ethiopia (1994-2016)

Social protection in Ethiopia

Changes in child undernutrition in Ethiopia (2000-2016)

Rural finance and smallholder farming in Ethiopia

Agricultural impacts of the 2015/2016 drought in Ethiopia using high-resolution data fusion methodologies

Agriculture and social protection: The experience of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program

In this chapter, critical lessons and insights regarding the effects of social protection on agriculture are drawn from an assessment of the benefits and challenges of linking social protection with agriculture using the experiences of and empirical findings from the Ethiopian Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP)—the second-largest social protection program in Africa.

Appendix 1A: Agricultural transformation in Ethiopia: What do we know?

Ethiopia has achieved substantial progress in triggering and generating sustained agricultural growth for more than a decade. At the center of these favorable changes is an important political commitment that early on recognized the need to put agriculture at the center of its development agenda. This fundamentally shaped Ethiopia’s approach to addressing its age-old problems of structural bottlenecks for development. As such, the government envisioned overall development around an agriculture-first and then industrialize approach with a series of strategies put in place to execute this grand vision. As a result, Ethiopia and its development partners have invested heavily in putting in place not only development programs and projects but also the critical institutional and governance structures to implement them. This required instituting government structures, at times at the cost being too bureaucratic, and building new government and semi-government organizations tasked to achieve agricultural transformation.

Teff consumption in urban Ethiopia

Following a brief description of the EUSS panel on which this analysis is based, this chapter investigates the role of teff in the total household food consumption basket in urban Ethiopia. Further on, the chapter presents a descriptive analysis of the patterns of teff consumption, disaggregating household teff consumption by time, place of residence, and income group. The chapter then continues to analyze the correlates of teff consumption using alternative linear panel data models. The chapter concludes with a discussion about the importance of interventions that could alter the consumption basket of the average urban Ethiopian household to reduce food poverty.

Dynamics in teff value chains

The purpose of this chapter is to understand the changes that have been happening in the teff value chain in Ethiopia based on carefully fielded primary stacked surveys at different layers in the value chain.1 This chapter uses the same data as in Chapter 11 and takes a dynamic angle on the teff sector, as was presented in Chapter 12. However, the scope of the analysis is much broader than in the previous market-focused chapter. In this chapter the dynamics are examined in detail, focusing closely on what exactly has been happening, beyond output markets, in technology adoption upstream in the value chain and downstream, at service delivery, competition, mixing teff with other cereals in the preparation of injera, and changes in the food service industry.

Nutrient composition and health benefits

This chapter looks at the physical and chemical characteristics of teff and its nutrient composition. The use of teff and teff-based products for human nutrition in Ethiopia are described, along with the food-processing challenges impeding teff’s worldwide consumption. Recent research advances to solve these challenges are discussed. Finally, the potential health benefits that could be associated with higher consumption of teff are highlighted.

Supply response of smallholder households in Ethiopia

A large proportion of the poor in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA) reside in rural areas where smallholder agriculture is the dominant activity. Smallholder farms account for more than 90 percent of the cultivated area and output in Ethiopia, with about 80 percent of the total population living in rural areas (Bachewe et al. 2015). Smallholder farmer–focused policies, which derive from the Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) framework, were predominant in Ethiopia over the past two decades. This includes the current Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP). Furthermore, considerable resources are used through a number of national and multilateral supported programs aimed at increasing smallholders’ productivity and marketed supply (Ethiopia, MoA 2015). The success of such efforts crucially depends, among other factors, on how smallholders respond to changes in prices and policy interventions. This chapter examines supply responses of smallholder farmers to recent price changes.

Agronomics of teff

This chapter gives an overview of the agronomics of teff primarily focusing on the major biophysical aspects of the teff plant and its husbandry in Ethiopia. The first section elaborates on the major peculiar features that constitute the reasons for the sustained extensive cultivation of the crop in Ethiopia. An understanding and appreciation of the relative merits of the crop in cultivation and use are vital for government policy makers, researchers, development partners and donors, and the public at large for agrarian transformation in Ethiopia to be achieved. Notably, the focus on research and development of teff has given rise to considerable attention of this crop’s significance and meritorious features. In the subsequent sections, other salient aspects are covered, including brief insights into the genetic resources to improve the crop, the improved varieties released so far, and the agronomic and pest management methods used in teff husbandry. The chapter concludes with a summary of the practical implications of the major issues covered, followed by remarks on the prospects of teff research and development in Ethiopia.

Conclusion [In The Economics of Teff]

By any measure, teff is an important crop in Ethiopia. It is estimated that one-fifth of all land under cultivation in the country, approximately 2.7 million hectares, is used to grow teff. However, while teff has been grown and consumed in Ethiopia for centuries, relatively little is known about the economics of teff production and the postfarm teff value chain that supplies this staple to millions. This is set to change with more time and effort being devoted to building the value chains surrounding its production, marketing, and consumption in various ways. People in government, agriculture, health, research, and other areas are becoming more aware that by increasing teff productivity through research, application, and training, this drive could turn around the lives of many poor people in rural communities.

Expanding teff production: Economywide analysis of growth and poverty impacts

This chapter analyzes the economywide effects of significantly increasing the production of teff, wheat, and maize, both separately and jointly. Although our particular focus is on teff, maize and wheat are also considered closely in order to contrast the characteristics of teff and the other two cereals within the Ethiopian economy and for Ethiopian households. A detailed Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Ethiopian economy is used for this analysis. The CGE model is linked to a household survey–based microsimulation module. This enables estimation of the impact on household poverty and calorie intake of the various production scenarios run through the model. The production increases simulated in the analysis are consistent with the targets set by the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA) through their Teff, Wheat, and Maize Initiatives that began in 2012 and 2013. Accordingly, the simulation results provide additional evidence for evaluating Ethiopia’s cereals investment plan and the design of broader agricultural development strategy.

Supply chain from production areas to Addis Ababa

The importance of cities is rapidly growing. It is estimated that more than half of the world population was living in cities in 2010; this is up from 30 percent in the 1950s (UN Population Division 2010). Given this rapid urbanization, especially so in developing countries, and the increasing importance of the manufacturing and service sectors in these countries’ economies, more people are making a living outside agriculture. As part of this change, many more people do not grow their own food and rely on market purchases for their food needs. This results in rapidly increasing agricultural market flows, especially from rural to urban areas, with a high number of people on the production and consumption side depending on the functioning of these value chains. This dynamic has profound implications on people’s food security in developing countries.

Introduction [In The Economics of Teff]

Ethiopia is one of the most populous countries in Africa with the agricultural sector playing an important role in the country. It is estimated that in 2011 the agricultural sector contributed about 45 percent to gross domestic product (GDP). More important, it is a major source of employment in the country, with almost 80 percent of the population making a livelihood in the sector (World Bank 2014a). Understanding the complex linkages in agriculture, and identifying opportuntities and challenges to improve its performance, is therefore fundamental. Moreover, while Ethiopia has made important strides in the reduction of poverty and the improvement of food security over the past decades, poverty and food insecurity levels remain high. At the forefront, government policies and stakeholders have made enormous efforts to improve the functioning of the agricultural sector and of staple food sectors in particular, along with attempts to understand what policies and investments are likely to have the most impact.

Seed demand and supply responses

For centuries, efforts to improve, multiply, and distribute teff seed have relied on informal mechanisms, primarily farmers’ own selection of varieties exhibiting desirable yield, taste, color, or stress-resistance characteristics, and farmer-to-farmer exchanges of seed embodying these traits. It was not until the mid-20th century that Ethiopia—like many other developing countries—developed a system based on modern science to breed improved teff cultivars, distribute improve teff seed, and accelerate the contribution of genetic gain to teff yield growth across the country’s smallholder farming systems. Today, these informal mechanisms still account for up to 90 percent of seed supply, with the modern infrastructure accounting for the remainder (Bishaw, Sahlu, and Simane 2008; Sahlu, Simane, and Bishaw 2008). This suggests that there are challenges still to be overcome in enhancing teff productivity—in increasing output per area, maintaining yield gains from prior investments in research, reducing yield variability within and across seasons, and increasing tolerance and resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses. Part of Ethiopia’s challenge relates to the fact that teff is a neglected species (more pejoratively referred to as an “orphan crop”). Teff is not cultivated extensively in any other country and is thus not a destination for public investment in breeding. Teff is not a food security crop of global importance and is thus not a priority crop in the international agricultural research system— unlike rice, wheat, and maize. Teff is, in effect, unable to benefit from research spillovers from public investment in national (until recently) and international plant breeding programs, international exchanges of germplasm, and modern seed supply systems.

Structural transformation of teff markets

Since the beginning of the 2000s, important changes have occurred in Ethiopia’s economy.1 In this chapter, the extent to which these changes have affected teff markets are assessed using primary data collected from wholesale markets and secondary data on teff prices and margins, obtained from Ethiopia’s Central Statistical Agency (CSA) and the Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE). Five possible reasons are considered for teff market transformation and for the changes in teff price margins over the period 2001–2011.2 This study period has been influenced by changes in five factors that may have affected how teff markets function. First, fast economic and income growth is changing food demand. Second, urbanization is leading to larger rural–urban food and teff marketing flows. Third, investments in road infrastructure and a better organized transport sector have led to significant declines in real transportation costs. Fourth, the widespread availability of mobile phones has improved access to price information for a large number of players in the commercial food circuit and has led, for some, to a different way of sealing commercial deals. Fifth, increased adoption of modern inputs and better access to extension agents are likely to have contributed to an increase in teff supply.

Market access, teff production, and fertilizer use over time

This chapter aims to provide a spatial interpretation of teff production while exploring changes in infrastructure and agricultural inputs over time. Geographic overlap between transportation investments, fertilizer application, and increases in teff production provide a qualitative assessment of how road expansion, agricultural production, and agricultural inputs have changed over time in more remote areas of Ethiopia. The study covered in this chapter uses a rich set of data on agricultural indicators collected by Ethiopia’s Central Statistical Agency (CSA) as well as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data on roads, agroecologies, and other biophysical information to analyze the transformation of teff production patterns in Ethiopia since 1997. The remainder of the chapter is as follows. The first section provides an overview of teff production in Ethiopia as well as a brief literature review of previous studies that examined the overlap of agricultural potential with regards to infrastructure development. The next section describes the data and methodology used to explore teff production, fertilizer application, and infrastructure development over time. The chapter then discusses the spatial heterogeneity of teff production patterns over time taking into account agroecological conditions, transportation infrastructure, and market access. Fertilizer application trends on teff production over time and links to major markets within the country are explored before the chapter ends with a conclusion.

Productivity and efficiency in high-potential areas

A large majority of Ethiopians and those who are poor live in rural areas and derive their livelihood from agriculture. Moreover, the proportion residing in rural areas is predicted to stay high (still around 70 percent in 2040), when there is likely to be 40 percent more rural residents (UN 2014). Agriculture is dominated by smallholder households. During 2013/2014, 94 percent of the area nationwide was cultivated by smallholder farmers (Ethiopia, CSA 2005b–2014b). The average amount of land held by smallholders was about a hectare and has since declined. In addition, the number and size of households increased between 2004/2005 and 2013/2014 (Ethiopia, CSA 2005b–2014b). The facts that most Ethiopians are engaged in agriculture and the bulk of the poor reside in rural areas have provided the impetus for major policy initiatives from the government of Ethiopia that prioritize smallholder agriculture. Most notably, since the launch of the Agricultural Development Led Industrialization strategy in 1993 (Ethiopia, MoPED 1993), agriculture has become a focal point.

Farming practices and productivity

In this chapter, teff production practices are described, along with their relationships with the level of land productivity of teff producers in Ethiopia. Data are used on plots of teff from a survey of 1,200 stratified randomly selected households conducted at the end of 2012. We selected this dataset as it provides high-quality data, relevant information on teff practices, and a large sample. The relationships between farming practices and teff yield are assessed through a descriptive analysis of the data and the estimation of a production function to determine teff productivity. Although input levels and characteristics of the plot and household are included as right-hand variables, the focus is on the technology employed and producer organizations used. The analysis sheds light on the relationships between farming practices and yield across plots as well as the implications for policies to improve land productivity for teff producers.

Perceptions, impacts, and rewards of row planting

The Ethiopian government rolled out a nationwide campaign in 2013 to promote the use of row planting, aiming to scale up its adoption to almost 2.5 million teff farmers. However, the impacts of the widespread promotion campaign of row planting of teff in particular on land and labor productivity are unknown. This is mainly due to a lack of reliable and objective farm-level data. Moreover, no systematic effort has yet been put into examining farmers’ perceptions after they experimented with the new sowing techniques. The contribution of this The contribution of this chapter is to analyze the impact of the promotion campaign of row planting of teff and to infer farmers’ perception about the new planting technique and the promotion thereof. To do so, data were collected during the “pre-scale-up” phase of the promotion campaign in 2012/2013 by surveying farmers from 40 villages exposed to the promotion campaign. Data was collected by means of a large-scale randomized control trial (RCT), randomly assigning teff farmers to implement either row planting or broadcasting of teff seed on an experimental plot. The effect of receiving a promotion campaign for sowing teff seeds in rows, together with a reduced seed rate (this combination is referred to as row planting), was measured on teff farmers’ land, as well as on labor productivity.

Teff and its role in the agricultural and food economy

The chapter first discusses the role of teff on the production side. Ethiopia is an extremely diverse country, with large variation in ecosystems and agricultural potential, ranging from pastoralist areas to moisture-reliable lowlands and highlands as well as drought-prone highlands and lowlands (Chamberlin and Schmidt 2012). Moreover, there is large variation in population density and access to markets. These factors contribute to a diversified agricultural economy with spatial specialization of agricultural activities and very diverse livelihood strategies. Next, the chapter analyzes teff consumption. Data are analyzed from national consumption surveys over a 15-year period to illustrate the extent to which transformation in consumption patterns is occurring (for an overview of patterns in nutritional transition in developing countries overall, see Popkin [2003]) and what exactly the role is of teff in Ethiopia’s changing food economy. To better understand that transformation, the link between food demand and income levels in particular is examined later in the chapter. This might give an indication of the trend in food consumption patterns, especially within a country where urbanization is encouraged and mid-income status is set as a goal by the year 2025 in several policy documents.

The economics of teff: Exploring Ethiopia’s biggest cash crop

Considerable poverty and food insecurity in Ethiopia, combined with the overwhelming majority of Ethiopians who depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, make agricultural transformation a crucial development goal for the country. One promising improvement is to increase production of teff, the calorie- and nutrient-rich but low-yielding staple. The Economics of Teff: Exploring Ethiopia’s Biggest Cash Crop examines key aspects of teff production, marketing, and consumption, with a focus on opportunities for and challenges to further growth. The authors identify ways to realize teff’s potential, including improving productivity and resilience, selecting and scaling up new technologies, establishing distribution systems adapted to different areas’ needs, managing labor demand and postharvest operations, and increasing access to larger and more diverse markets. The book’s analysis and policy conclusions should be useful to policy makers, researchers, and others concerned with Ethiopia’s economic development.

This record also includes the following synopsis:
Minten, Bart; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; and Brown, Petra. 2018. The economics of teff: Exploring Ethiopia’s biggest cash crop: Synopsis. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896292857

Ethiopia - An agrarian economy in transition

Agricultural value chains: How cities reshape food systems

Rapid growth of cities is driving change in agricultural value chains—key factors include increased commercial flows of agricultural goods, diet transformation, and the large role of commercial markets in meeting urban food needs. Megacities in developing countries are transforming value chains for high-value crops and for traditional staple food crops. The “quiet revolution” affecting staple-food value chains is increasing productivity through: Increased investment in technology and modern inputs, including fertilizers and improved seeds, by farmers close to cities. Use of mobile phones by farmers to better position themselves in markets. Greater vertical integration resulting from the growing scale of midstream and retail sections of the value chain—such as cold storage, rice mills, and supermarkets.

Evaluating options: Assessing the relative merits of resilience interventions

Agriculture, WASH, and safety nets: Ethiopia’s multisector story

OVER THE PAST 25 years, Ethiopia has made remarkable headway in addressing the country’s nutrition situation. Despite ongoing challenges, significant progress has been made toward meeting the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, including halving child mortality, doubling the number of people with access to clean water, and quadrupling primary school enrollment. Ethiopia is also on track to eradicate extreme hunger and poverty. The country was one of the top five performing countries in the 2000s in terms of reducing stunting by reducing its prevalence from 57.4 percent in 2000 to 44.2 percent in 2011, although levels remained high at 40.0 percent in 2014.2 The same 2014 Demographic and Health Survey found that a further 9 percent of children younger than 5 years old experience wasting, and only 4 percent of children meet the standards for a minimal acceptable diet (a World Health Organization [WHO]/UNICEF indicator for complementary feeding).3 Significant regional differences persist, with the highest rates of stunting (52 percent) found in Amhara and the lowest found in Gambela (27 percent) and Addis Ababa (22 percent). Overall, stunting is more prevalent in rural (46 percent) than in urban areas (36 percent).

Factors influencing the effectiveness of productivity-enhancing interventions: an assessment of selected programs

The preceding chapter has shown that agricultural intensification paths differ markedly in different farming systems and are influenced significantly by population density; yield-enhancing technologies, such as fertilizer, may have been used more as instruments for expanding cultivated area, rather than for increasing yield; and further in-country analysis is needed to sharpen the policy implications of these findings. This chapter assesses selected productivity-enhancing interventions across Africa, with the aim of distilling lessons on key factors contributing to the effectiveness of such interventions. Intervention as used here stands for programs, projects, strategies, or other agricultural development initiatives, and effectiveness refers to the extent to which the objectives of the intervention were achieved, taking into account their relative importance (OECD 2010).

Lives Saved Tool (LiST) analysis for global nutrition report Independent Expert Group: Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Ethiopia

Social capital and resilience

Resilience to climate-induced conflict in the Horn of Africa

The Shuffled Complex Evolution—Universal Algorithm (SCE‐UA) is an automatic calibration algorithm that has shown success in finding a globally optimum objective function with more efficiency than other methods. We incorporated the SCE‐UA into our novel modeling environment, utilizing an ontology‐based simulation (OntoSim‐Sugarcane) framework adapted to analyze groundwater table (WT) fluctuations and drainage practices on four farm basins in the Everglades Agricultural Area of south Florida.Utilizing two water years (WY96–97) of farm WT fluctuations observed at a portion (<16 ha) of each farm basin, two parameters—lateral hydraulic conductivities of soil profile and vertical hydraulic conductivity of underlying limestone—were automatically calibrated. Regardless of farms, the best parameter sets that minimize the objective function of daily root mean square error could be found after 1500 simulation runs. The quality of matching simulated to observed values of farm WT were further assessed by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE). The NSE ranged from 0.38 to 0.75 (calibration period, WY96–97) and 0.10 to 0.76 (validation period, WY98–99) on all four farms. These results indicate that this coupling strengthens the capability of OntoSim‐Sugarcane to model hydrology by objectively finding the best parameter sets. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Impact of land certification on tree growing on private plots of rural households: Evidence from Ethiopia

Migration and resettlement in Ethiopia: Reflections on trends and implications for food security

Welfare impacts of land certification in Tigray, Ethiopia

Ethiopia [In East African agriculture and climate change: A comprehensive analysis]

Implementing large scale food security programs in rural Ethiopia: Insights from the Productive Safety Net Program

Strategies and priorities for African agriculture: Economywide perspectives from country studies

This book examines the potential of agriculture to contribute to national growth and poverty reduction. It also evaluates the financial costs of accelerating agricultural growth. The analysis is based on ten country case studies that apply similar economywide approaches to linking growth, poverty, and investment. The findings indicate that, in most African countries, improving agriculture’s performance is essential to achieving pro-poor growth. They also point to export agriculture having high growth potential and becoming a prominent part of agricultural strategies. The research shows that broad-based growth will be difficult to achieve without expanding staple-foodcrop production and livestock production, since only they have the scale and linkages to poor households needed to reduce national poverty within a reasonable period of time. Finally, the case studies confirm the need for greater investment in agriculture. However, the efficiency of agricultural investments will have to improve if development targets are to remain attainable.

Food and agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and policy challenges

The perception of Ethiopia projected in the media is often one of chronic poverty and hunger, but this bleak assessment does not accurately reflect most of the country today. Ethiopia encompasses a wide variety of agroecologies and peoples. Its agriculture sector, economy, and food security status are equally complex. In fact, since 2001 the per capita income in certain rural areas has risen by more than 50 percent, and crop yields and availability have also increased. Higher investments in roads and mobile phone technology have led to improved infrastructure and thereby greater access to markets, commodities, services, and information. In Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and Policy Challenges, Paul Dorosh and Shahidur Rashid, along with other experts, tell the story of Ethiopia's political, economic, and agricultural transformation. The book is designed to provide empirical evidence to shed light on the complexities of agricultural and food policy in today's Ethiopia, highlight major policies and interventions of the past decade, and provide insights into building resilience to natural disasters and food crises. It examines the key issues, constraints, and opportunities that are likely to shape a food-secure future in Ethiopia, focusing on land quality, crop production, adoption of high-quality seed and fertilizer, and household income.

The bang for the birr: Public spending and rural welfare in Ethiopia

Implication of accelerated agricultural growth for household incomes and poverty in Ethiopia: A general equilibrium analysis

Ethiopia’s economy has experienced rapid growth in recent years. Although growth in agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) from 1998 to 2007 was less rapid than in other parts of the economy, agriculture also performed well, growing faster than the rural population. However, poverty is still severe in Ethiopia and is concentrated in rural areas. To accelerate growth and poverty reduction, Ethiopia’s national strategy affords an important role to agriculture as a source of both growth and development for the broader economy. This is essential given that agriculture is an income source for most of the population.

Policies and performance of Ethiopian cereal markets

Cereal is the single largest subsector of Ethiopia’s agriculture. It dominates in terms of its share in rural employment, agricultural land use, and calorie intake, as well as its contribution to national income. The subsector accounts for roughly 60 percent of rural employment, about 73 percent of total cultivated land, more than 40 percent of a typical household’s food expenditure, and more than 60 percent of total calorie intake. The contribution of cereals to the national income is also large. According to available estimates, cereals’ contribution to agricultural value-added is 65 percent, which translates to about 30 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

Targeting food security interventions in Ethiopia: The productive safety net programme

In Ethiopia, as in many other African countries, there is a pressing need to improve household food security. An emerging consensus suggests that this is most easily accomplished through two development strategies with two complementary dimensions: investments that facilitate income generation and asset accumulation, discussed elsewhere in this book, and interventions that protect the poorest from hunger, prevent asset depletion, and provide a platform for the growth interventions. Because resources for such interventions are limited, there needs to be a mechanism for allocating these.

Introduction [in Ethiopian Agriculture]

Indeed, the reality of Ethiopia’s agriculture and food security situation is complex because of variations across space within Ethiopia as well as variations over time due to changes in policies, weather shocks, and other factors. A complete picture of Ethiopia’s agriculture and food security must include both the very serious acute and chronic food insecurity problems faced by many Ethiopians and the progress achieved in other areas and at the national level.

Ethiopia

Agriculture is perhaps the most important economic sector for sustainable development and poverty reduction in Ethiopia. More than 85 percent of the population live in rural areas and depend crucially on agriculture for their livelihoods. The sector also accounts for more than 40 percent of national gross domestic product (GDP) and 90 percent of exports, and it provides basic needs and income to more than 90 percent of the country’s poor population. In recent years the agricultural sector has driven economic growth in the overall economy while also improving food security and reducing poverty (World Bank 2007).

Livestock production and marketing

Forage seed supply in Ethiopia: Some thoughts on status and how it might evolve

Strategic grain reserves in Ethiopia: Institutional design and operational performance

Seed, fertilizer, and agricultural extension in Ethiopia

Over the past two decades, decisionmakers in Ethiopia have pursued a range of policies and investments to boost agricultural production and productivity, particularly with respect to the food staple crops that are critical to reducing poverty in the country. A central aim of this process has been to increase the availability of improved seed, chemical fertilizers, and extension services for small-scale, resource-poor farmers, particularly those cultivating food staple crops. Although there is some evidence to suggest that the process has led to improvements in both output and yields during this period, decisionmakers still recognize that there is extensive room for improvement. And given the persistent food security issues facing Ethiopia year to year, there is a sense of urgency underlying the need for improvement.

Ethiopian Agriculture: A dynamic geographic perspective

The opportunities and constraints facing Ethiopian agriculture are strongly influenced by geographical location. Ethiopia’s diverse landscape defines certain agricultural production potentials, access to input and output markets, and local population densities, which determine both labor availability and local demand for food. Understanding the geographical expression of Ethiopia’s agricultural and rural development options provides greater information for more locally targeted policy options.

Crop production in Ethiopia: Regional patterns and trends

Ethiopia’s crop agriculture is complex, involving substantial variation in crops grown across the country’s different regions and ecologies. Five major cereals (teff, wheat, maize, sorghum, and barley) are the core of Ethiopia’s agriculture and food economy, accounting for about three-fourths of the total area cultivated, 29 percent of agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) in 2005/06 (14 percent of total GDP), and 64 percent of calories consumed (FAO various years). There has been substantial growth in cereals in terms of area cultivated, yields, and production since 2000, but yields are low by international standards, and overall production is highly susceptible to weather shocks, particularly droughts. Thus, raising production levels and reducing their variability are essential aspects of improving food security in Ethiopia, both to help ensure adequate food availability and to increase rural household incomes.

Disaster response and emergency risk management in Ethiopia

Agrarian communities dependent on rainfall are vulnerable to production shortfalls due to drought and other climatic shocks. The human suffering caused by such shocks is often amplified due to deficiencies in market fundamentals, such as roads, information, and risk management institutions. This has been the case in Ethiopia for several centuries, dating back to medieval chronicles of the ninth century (Pankhurst 1985; von Braun, Teklu, and Webb 1998), when droughts caused widespread food insecurities and, in extreme cases, famine.

The evolving role of agriculture in Ethiopia's economic development

Ethiopia is changing at an accelerating pace. Major investments in roads are bringing tens of millions of people effectively closer to major urban centers and services. Expansion of telecommunications, especially through cellular phones, likewise has connected much of the country and vastly improved the spread of information. The average electricity generation capacity during 1990–99 was 334 megawatts, and by 2010 that capacity had more than quadrupled, to 1,498 megawatts. During the same period, the capacity per capita almost tripled (from 6.0 watts to 17.4 watts). These advances are providing new opportunities for industrial production and modern services.

Patterns in foodgrain consumption and calorie intake

The quality, quantity, and composition of food consumption are major determinants of the nutritional well-being of individuals, which has, in turn, important implications for individual and household-level health, productivity, and income. An analysis of food consumption patterns is essential to understanding and projecting domestic demand for agricultural products, as well as for the development of national policies to promote food security.

Assessing household vulnerability to climate change: The case of farmers in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Burial societies in rural Ethiopia

In doing so, the chapter builds on research addressing how poor households respond to shocks; see Morduch (2005) and references therein, the review paper by Skoufias and Quisumbing (2005), and the recent collection edited by Dercon (2005). These show that in the face of shocks households can partially smooth consumption, but not perfectly; as might be expected, idiosyncratic shocks (for instance, low or late rainfall on household plots) are more likely to be insured collectively than are generalized shocks (such as low rainfall on most plots in the village). In most empirical studies of risk smoothing—for example, that of Townsend (1994)—the insurance unit has been assumed to be the village. Studies using Townsend's approach have often found that households are able to cope with idiosyncratic shocks but not covariate shocks, implying that local insurance mechanisms are inadequate to cope with aggregate shocks. More recent studies (for example, that of Munshi and Rosenzweig 2005) have begun to question the assumption that the appropriate unit of risk smoothing is the village. They suggest that consumption is smoothed within subcaste networks that extend beyond the village. Indeed, the literature on migration and remittances suggests that networks can cross geographic boundaries, with the formation of migrant networks at destination sites affected by shocks in the original locality (Munshi 2003).

The transformation of the Afar Commons in Ethiopia: State coercion, diversification, and property rights change among pastoralists

In this chapter we discuss two cases of pastoralist involvement in agriculture and investigate the challenges and opportunities of this transition. We focus on the drivers of crop production from a dual perspective: first, as an outcome of state coercion and, second, as a voluntary response to natural calamities. Specifically, the chapter addresses the following questions: (1) Why was the Ethiopian government interested in transforming traditional communal rights at the beginning? How smooth or how rough was the process of change? (3) What are the outcomes in terms of property rights arrangements and pastoral livelihoods? (4) What factors explain pastoralists' responses to drought-induced changes? The first case portrays the conflictive transformation of the traditional land use arrangements of Afar pastoralists, which resulted from coercive state intervention aimed at expanding commercial farming, while the second case shows a nonconflictive change induced by recurrent droughts in the presence of support from the state.

Unmaking the commons: collective action, property rights, and resource appropriation among (agro-)pastoralists in eastern Ethiopia

This chapter explores these dynamics in the pastoralist commons of eastern Ethiopia. We study current practices of managing water and pasture resources of pastoralist and agropastoralist groups at three sites in Somali Region, Ethiopia. We investigate how changing property rights regimes affect incentives to participate in collective action. Our studies suggest that in the process of unmaking the commons, benefit streams to significant water and pasture resources are individualized, whereas social duties to manage communal resources through collective action are externalized. Such patterns disturb customary practices of reciprocal resource-sharing arrangements, which in the past have been instrumental in managing risk in pastoralist livelihoods and unraveling intraclan social obligations that have helped the poor. With regard to the conceptual framework presented in Chapter 2, this study illustrates how relationships between elements of the initial context and the action arena can lead to the emergence of patterns of interaction that have negative implications for the well-being of people, especially poorer, less powerful individuals in society.

Gender and governance in rural services: Insights from India, Ghana, and Ethiopia

As the first output from the gender and governance in rural services project, this report presents descriptive findings and qualitative analysis of accountability mechanisms in agricultural extension and rural water supply in India, Ghana, and Ethiopia, paying specific attention to gender responsiveness. The gender and governance in rural services project seeks to generate policy-relevant knowledge on strategies to improve agricultural and rural service delivery, with a focus on providing more equitable access to these services, especially for women. The project focuses on agricultural extension, as an example of an agricultural service, and drinking water, as an example of rural service that is not directly related to agriculture but is of high relevance for rural women. A main goal of this project was to generate empirical micro level evidence about the ways various accountability mechanisms for agricultural and rural service provision work in practice and to identify factors that influence the suitability of different governance reform strategies that aim to make service provision more gender responsive. Three out of four poor people in the developing world live in rural areas, and most of them depend directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. Providing economic services, such as agricultural extension, is essential to using agriculture for development. At the same time, the rural poor need a range of basic services, such as drinking water, education, and health services. Such services are difficult to provide in rural areas because they are subject to the "triple challenge" of market, state, and community failure. As a result of market failure, the private sector does not provide these services to the rural poor to the extent that is desirable from society's point of view. The state is not very effective in providing these services either, because these services have to be provided every day throughout the country, even in remote areas, and because they require discretion and cannot easily be standardized, especially if they are demand driven. Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and communities themselves are interesting alternative providers of these services, but they too can fail, because of capacity constraints and local elite capture. This triple challenge of market, state, and community failure results in the poor provision of agricultural and rural services, a major obstacle to agricultural and rural development.