Publications

The science of agriculture-driven nature loss (part 1): mapping drivers and impact of agricultural water management

Incentives, administrative capture and preference aggregation in community-based targeting

Community-based targeting (CBT), which leverages community leaders to identify eligible beneficiaries, is widely used in social protection programs and development interventions, especially in data-scarce settings. Yet, little is known about how these leaders respond to opportunities for potential resource leakages and elite capture, and whether such behavior is moderated by budget constraints or the level of discretion given to leaders. Similarly, how community leaders involved in CBT aggregate individual preferences into collective decisions remains understudied. We conduct a cluster-randomized experiment in 180 Ethiopian villages to study the effects of incentive structures and discretion on administrative capture—defined as funds retained under the disguise of covering “administrative” costs. Local leaders were tasked with allocating real or hypothetical transfer budgets, with discretion to retain up to 10 percent as “administrative costs”. To uncover decision-making and preference aggregation within CBT committees, we elicited these decisions (proposals to retain a portion of the budget) individually as well as collectively. We find that financial incentives significantly increase administrative (elite) capture, and that capture increases with budget size. Group decisions yield higher appropriation than individual proposals, suggesting implicit collusion rather than prosocial restraint in group-based decisions. Moreover, when real stakes are at play, group outcomes are disproportionately shaped by extreme (outlier) preferences, whereas in hypothetical settings without actual transfers, popular preferences dominate. These findings highlight behavioral mechanisms underlying collective decision-making and administrative capture in CBT, which can inform the design of more accountable CBT systems.

Internal displacement and the promotion of bundled agricultural technologies: Evidence from a fragile setting in Nigeria

Fragile regions within Nigeria face multiple, overlapping challenges including climate volatility, violent conflict, widespread displacement, and persistent malnutrition. These pressures can constrain agricultural production and compromise household welfare, particularly for internally displaced households, who face depleted assets and repeated exposure to shocks. Within the context of Nigeria, addressing these constraints requires interventions that improve access to agricultural technologies and strengthen food systems. This brief summarizes experimental evidence from Gombe State, Nigeria, where we implemented an intervention promoting the adoption of a bundle of agricultural technologies.

The intervention specifically disentangled the effects of price discounts and information campaigns on bundle adoption. We collected data on the use of each of the bundle components as well as the implementation of agronomic practices recommended for achieving agricultural intensification benefits, enabling us to document adoption beyond the initial purchase of the bundle in a detailed way. The bundle—which includes biofortified seeds, fertilizers, crop protection products, and weather-risk insurance—was designed to generate an intensification response among farmers and address micronutrient deficiencies among adopting households. In principle, biofortified crops—such as vitamin A maize and high-iron millet—offer a dual benefit: improved crop productivity and improved access to nutritious foods. While Nigerian agricultural policies encourage biofortification, sustained adoption remains limited, and existing studies overwhelmingly focus on peaceful and stable settings. We aim to addresses existing knowledge gaps by implementing a randomized control trial in Gombe State, Nigeria—a fragile and conflict-affected setting with a relatively large displaced population.

Existing evidence shows that bundled input packages, rather than interventions promoting a single agricultural input, can generate productivity gains associated with agricultural intensification. Adoption is often hindered by liquidity constraints, perceived risk, and weak extension systems. Moreover, displaced households can face additional barriers due to asset loss and insecure land tenure. This motivates us to specifically investigate whether displaced households respond differently to our intervention than households from the host population.

The impact of a nutrition-sensitive graduation model program on child nutrition: Experimental evidence from Ethiopia

Multifaceted graduation models are a promising strategy to sustainably reduce poverty, yet evidence on their effects on child undernutrition remains limited. This randomized controlled trial evaluated a nutrition-sensitive graduation model combining village economic and savings associations, peer-led behavior change communication, and maternal cash transfers (and for a subset, lump-sum livelihoods transfers) implemented among ultra-poor households in rural Ethiopia. The model without maternal cash transfers improved maternal nutrition knowledge and financial inclusion but did not generate meaningful changes in children’s diets or growth. Supplementing the pro-gram with maternal cash transfers produced at least moderate improvements in child diet quality, early childhood development, household consumption, and assets. The largest improvements in child growth occurred among households receiving both the livelihoods grant and maternal cash transfers. Overall, the results suggest that coupling behavior change communication and livelihoods support with sufficient financial support is critical for achieving meaningful progress in both economic well-being and child nutrition.

Lessons from the Digital Agricultural Advisory Services (DAAS) project in Ethiopia: Dairy use case

Agricultural extension services are a cornerstone of rural development and a vital instrument for policymakers to directly shape economic, social, and environmental outcomes in rural areas. These services aim to enhance farm productivity by promoting the adoption of agricultural technologies, inputs, and management practices. Through outreach, training, knowledge sharing, and learning, extension activities help bridge the gap between research and practice, potentially supporting more resilient and productive farming systems (Davis 2008; Jack 2013).

Perceived need and measured well-being: How well do subjective rankings capture relative poverty?

Subjective well-being rankings are increasingly used to target social protection programs, yet their ability to capture relative welfare and wealth remains debated. This study benchmarks self-, peer-, and elite-based poverty rankings against consumption- and wealth-based measures using Ethiopian household survey data, where about 20 households per village were ranked from neediest to least needy by themselves, peers, and community leaders. We assess concordance between subjective and conventional welfare rankings and explore sources of divergence. Subjective rankings align more with relative wealth than consumption and with total rather than per capita welfare, suggesting they overlook household composition. Elite-based rankings best capture conventional measures, followed by peers’ and self-rankings. Subjective rankings also better reflect relative deprivation among households exposed to covariate shocks. A composite index combining all three improves agreement with standard metrics. Information asymmetries, favoritism, and welfare dynamics partly explain discrepancies, offering insights for enhancing targeting in data-scarce settings.

Targeting of beneficiaries in chemical fertilizer subsidy programs: State of knowledge and evidence gaps

Low and middle income countries have been facing mounting pressure from lenders and donors to eliminate or reform fertilizer subsidy programs, which can have distortionary market effects and negative environmental externalities. However, there is little systematic work understanding who these programs currently benefit both in theory and in practice, and hence who may be affected by policy reform. In this paper, we identify low and middle countries with active fertilizer subsidy programs, and characterize the targeting regime of each program based on both explicit and implicit criteria determining eligibility. Then in a selection of case studies, we explore which individuals are receiving subsidy benefits in practice. We find that while many fertilizer subsidy programs are meant to be universal, there are are additional implicit targeting criteria and/or informal targeting induced by supply shortfalls in many countries. Further, we find evidence that regardless of targeting regime, fertilizer subsidies are generally progressive, though this seems to be driven by the fact that the poor are often concentrated in the agricultural sector.

Livelihoods and recovery after Cyclone Idai: Short- and long-run household evidence from Mozambique

Sub-Saharan Africa bears a disproportionate share of global poverty and is also among the regions most vulnerable to natural disasters that pose persistent threats to livelihoods, food security, and long-run development. This study examines how exposure to a major natural disaster—Cyclone Idai, one of the deadliest and costliest disasters in Mozambique’s history—affected household well-being and economic behavior in central Mozambique following its landfall in March 2019. We combine satellite-based best-track data on Cyclone Idai’s trajectory with longitudinal household survey data collected both shortly after the disaster and five to six years later. Specifically, we link predicted maximum wind speed at the community level to a pre-defined sample of households surveyed before the cyclone, allowing us to estimate impacts in the short run (within the same year) and the longer run. This design leverages rich pre-baseline data and province fixed effects to mitigate concerns about selection bias, displacement, and omitted variables that commonly complicate causal inference in disaster impact studies.

We find that greater cyclone exposure is strongly associated with short-run reports of shock experience and asset loss, validating predicted wind speed as a measure of disaster intensity. In the long run, however, households appear to recover from the immediate shock. Cyclone exposure is associated with persistent declines in reliance on agriculture as a primary livelihood and increases in small business activity and formal wage employment. At the same time, we observe mixed effects on asset ownership, with sustained declines in housing ownership alongside increases in durable asset holdings. Future work will continue to highlight how complex and heterogeneous pathways through which large-scale disasters reshape household livelihoods and economic behavior over time.

Lessons from the Digital Agricultural Advisory Services (DAAS) project in Ethiopia: Wheat use case

Agricultural extension services are a cornerstone of rural development and a vital instrument for policymakers to directly shape economic, social, and environmental outcomes in rural areas. These services aim to enhance farm productivity by promoting the adoption of agricultural technologies, inputs, and management practices. Through outreach, training, knowledge sharing, and learning, extension activities help bridge the gap between research and practice, potentially supporting more resilient and productive farming systems (Davis 2008; Jack 2013).

Out-of-sample validation of the external and internal Migration Propensity Index (MPI) in Honduras

The external and internal Migration Propensity Indices (e-MPI and i-MPI) are tools to objectively estimate the probability that individuals from a given household will, respectively, migrate abroad or migrate domestically in the near future. We use new longitudinal data to test their predictive performance fully out of sample. We find that households classified as being of high-propensity to migrate by the e-MPI were significantly more likely to migrate abroad within 24 months (10.7%) than medium- and low-propensity groups (8.8% and 5.3%). For domestic migration, the i-MPI shows an even stronger gradient (19.6% versus 8.5% and 3.5%, respectively). Regression models confirm that both indices outperform alternative predictors—including income, climate shocks, crime, and migration intent—and maintain predictive power across rural and urban areas. Placebo tests indicate that the e-MPI and i-MPI capture distinct dimensions of migration behavior, validating their use for targeting and monitoring migration-related interventions. Overall, the MPIs emerge as simple yet statistically robust tools that reliably predict both international and domestic migration, offering a practical and scalable solution to help governments and development agencies anticipate migration trends and allocate resources strategically.

Strategic plan of the IFPRI program on fragile and conflict-affected food systems (FCAS): 2026-2029

Humanitarian crises are becoming more frequent, protracted, and complex. Fragility, conflict, climate extremes, and displacement increasingly converge to undermine food security, disrupt livelihoods, and erode community resilience across dozens of countries. In these settings, humanitarian actors face enormous pressure to deliver assistance in ways that are timely, inclusive, accountable, and aligned with the needs and priorities of affected populations. Further, governments demand evidence on what policies, programming, and other investments can support prevention, recovery, and resilience. In the current funding environment, global humanitarian financing is stretched thinner than ever, making improvements in effectiveness, efficiency, and quality of humanitarian actions all the more urgent.

The IFPRI Program on Fragile and Conflict-Affected Food Systems (FCAS) responds to these challenges by generating practical, policy-relevant evidence on what works to support food security and resilience in FCAS, with a focus on who benefits, under what conditions, and at what cost. Through long-standing engagement in countries such as Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Mozambique, Myanmar, Sudan, Papua New Guinea, Somalia, and Yemen, the Program supports governments, UN agencies, International Non-Governmental Organizations (INGOs), and local NGOs to strengthen food systems in fragile contexts and improve outcomes for crisis-affected children, women, households, and communities.

To make the Program’s rigorous research and evidence generation effective, it relies on deep partnership, local engagement, and a commitment to translating evidence into real-world change. Its work spans crisis anticipation and prevention; monitoring and crisis response; and recovery and resilience. It also considers two key cross-cutting areas: governance and accountability; and gender equality and inclusion. Across all of these areas, the Program advances locally-led approaches and elevates the voices and leadership of affected populations.

IFPRI’s institutional strategy and its four-pronged approach to research and impact guide the Program; its work in FCAS aims to: (1) position major development challenges on policy agendas, (2) build scalable high-impact solutions, (3) strengthen governance and financing mechanisms, and (4) deploy tools, methods, and capabilities for research and policy impact. The Program supports humanitarian systems reform by generating new evidence on effective program design features; exploring means of strengthening governance and social inclusion; and supporting coordination across humanitarian, development, and peace actors. This Strategic Plan outlines how the Program operates, what it contributes, and how it sustains a unique role for IFPRI within the global humanitarian ecosystem.

Urban Food Environments and Diets (UFED) food environment assessment guidance

This guidance document is linked to the UFED web tool and meant to be shared in conjunction with use of an online decision-making tool for planning dietary and food environment assessments in urban and peri-urban areas.

Included documents:
Community and Market Mapping

In-Depth Vendor Assessment - Food Availability

Food and Beverage Promotion

Show me the money! Experimental evidence on preferences for cash vs. digital payment

In places such as rural Bangladesh, cash is the dominant medium for payments despite potential benefits of digital payments. We offer survey respondents an incentive-compatible choice for compensation: 200 Taka cash or randomly varied mobile money amounts (200-400 Taka). Only eight percent chose digital payment at parity and respondents exhibit an average willingness-to-pay of 43 percent of the payment value to receive cash payment. This preference persists across demographics, including among mobile money account holders. Within-household analysis reveals that 77 percent of the effect stems from individual-level rather than household-level factors, highlighting the importance of demand-side barriers on digital payments.

Urban Food Environments and Diets (UFED) dietary assessment guidance

This guidance document is linked to the UFED web tool and meant to be shared in conjunction with use of an online decision-making tool for planning dietary and food environment assessments in urban and peri-urban areas.

Included documents:
24-Hour Recall

Diet Quality Questionnaire

Food Frequency Questionnaire

Observed Weighted Food Record

Bridging the information gap: How Munda Makeover is transforming agricultural learning in Zambia

This project note presents midline findings regarding the effects of Munda Makeover (MMO), a farm makeover TV show designed to disseminate agricultural knowledge to Zambian farmers in an entertaining way. IFPRI and partners designed and implemented a cluster randomized trial across 160 villages involving two main interventions: village screenings of MMO episodes, combined with weekly SMS reminders to watch the show; and agricultural roadshows or input fairs. Results from a phone survey with 976 farmers show that community screenings and SMS reminders significantly increased viewership and knowledge around innovations promoted in the TV show. However, the uptake of agricultural inputs sold during the roadshows remains limited, largely due to liquidity constraints. These findings offer critical insights for optimizing the delivery of agricultural extension content through mass media and improving farmers’ access to agricultural inputs.

Updating yield growth rates in the IMPACT model to enhance global analysis of the future of agriculture

Changes in yields of food commodities are key drivers—and consequences—of changes in agriculture and food systems. Simulation models used to explore the future of agriculture require initial assumptions about baseline levels and changes in yields as a starting point and then can be used to analyze how those yields are affected by the dynamic interaction between changes in demand, markets, technology, climate and other factors. This paper reports on how critical initial yield assumptions have recently been reviewed and updated in the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). This paper is aimed at a technical audience interested in core details of the IMPACT modeling framework and is a follow-up to the latest full model documentation (Robinson et al 2024).

IMPACT was developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) at the beginning of the 1990s to address a lack of long-term vision and consensus among policymakers and researchers about the actions necessary to feed the world in the future, reduce poverty, and protect the natural resource base. Over time, this economic model has been expanded and improved, and IMPACT is now a system of linked models around a core multimarket economic model of global production, trade, demand, and prices for agricultural commodities. IMPACT supports integrated analysis of the implications of physical, biophysical, and socioeconomic trends and phenomena, allowing for varied and in-depth analysis on a variety of key issues of interest to policymakers. As a flexible policy analysis tool, IMPACT has been used to research linkages between agricultural production and food security at the national and regional levels. IMPACT also has been used in commodity-level scenario analyses and has contributed to thematic and interdisciplinary scenario-based projects. IMPACT is one of major global models of the agriculture sector, but because of its high level of commodity and geographic disaggregation, it plays a particularly important role in analyzing patterns of agricultural productivity growth around the world.

Potential commodity yields are key drivers in the IMPACT baseline scenario and an important lever influenced by investment and policy scenarios. The baseline assumptions about exogenous growth in crop and livestock yields are referred to in IMPACT as “intrinsic productivity growth rates” (IPRs). This paper describes the approach developed to review and update the IPRs to reflect recent trends and incorporate expert1 opinion, making the yield projections more transparent, inclusive, and efficient, and more consistent across CGIAR centers, improving projections and enhancing policy relevance. The remaining sections include a description of the IMPACT Model, the methods for updating the IPRs using projections based on FAOSTAT data and expert consultations, the findings related to the IPRs from each of the expert consultations, and a description of the process used to incorporate the findings from the consultations into IMPACT and concludes with discussion. A description of the Power BI tool used to support the expert consultations is presented in Appendix A.

IFPRI’s research in fragile and conflict-affected settings

IFPRI’s research provides partners with support through a wide range of evidence and products: Decision-support tools spanning all phases of crisis and conflict: anticipating and preventing risks before they escalate, monitoring and responding during acute crises, and supporting long-term recovery and resilience. Context-relevant evidence on policies, programming, and interventions to address the unique challenges faced by FCAS—relevant for governments, UN agencies, NGOs, and other partners. Rapid-response policy support to address emerging challenges. Best-practice guidance for conflict-sensitive, gender-responsive policy designs.

Women’s empowerment and child nutrition in the Asia – Pacific region: Evidence from Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste

Adverse nutritional outcomes for children under five remain a significant challenge around the world, and there is growing evidence that women’s empowerment is associated with better children’s nutritional outcomes. In this paper, we analyze the association between women’s empowerment and the probability of stunting, wasting, underweight status, and achieving dietary diversity for children under five using a cross-country sample of Demographic and Health Survey data from three countries in the Asia – Pacific region: Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste. We construct the Survey-based Women’s Empowerment (SWPER) index as well as a slightly modified SWPER index using women’s reported experience of intimate partner violence (IPV) rather than attitudes toward domestic violence (employed in the original index). Our findings suggest that women’s empowerment as captured by the SWPER index is associated with a reduced incidence of stunting, wasting and underweight status and a higher probability that children achieve MDD, though this relationship is only weakly observed in Timor-Leste. In general, the index estimated using experience of IPV shows a clearer association with nutritional outcomes, vis-a-vis the index estimated using attitudes toward IPV.

Bridging Nigeria’s fertilizer supply-demand gap for agricultural transformation

Nigeria’s fertilizer sector exhibits a persistent disconnect between national supply and farm-level use. Despite rapid growth in domestic production and increased private-sector participation, fertilizer adoption among smallholder farmers remains among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper examines the key drivers of Nigeria’s fertilizer supply–demand imbalance and its implications for agricultural transformation. Using national statistics, market data, and policy reviews, it identifies persistent barriers – including high distribution costs, inconsistent government policies, weak extension systems, limited credit access, and poor product quality – that constrain effective fertilizer use. It also assesses how export-oriented incentives and underdeveloped domestic markets influence local availability and pricing. The findings show that expanding production alone is insufficient to achieve meaningful agricultural change. Coordinated market reforms, stronger regulatory enforcement, improved delivery mechanisms, and targeted support to smallholder farmers are needed to improve affordability, access, and agronomic efficiency. The paper concludes with policy recommendations aimed at better aligning the fertilizer sector with Nigeria’s long-term goals for productivity growth and food system resilience.

The impact of genetically modified cowpea on yields, postharvest losses, and profitability in Nigeria: Findings from a cluster randomized controlled trial

We assess the impacts of a genetically modified pod borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea variety in Nigeria through a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in two major cowpea-cultivating states. Our design allows us to examine the impacts of PBR cowpea with and without a package of complementary inputs (fertilizer and insecticides) and in comparison to farmers who received only a conventional improved cowpea variety. Results indicate that farmers who received and planted PBR cowpea experienced significant increases in yield (21 percent) and net margins (49 percent) compared to those growing the conventional variety, with larger gains observed among those provided with the inputs package. Analysis of heterogeneous effects indicates substantial variation in outcomes based on baseline characteristics such as household size, landholding, pest control practices, and wealth. Estimation of group average treatment effects and classification analysis using a causal machine learning approach identify plot size, pesticide use, and assets as key drivers of impact heterogeneity. Findings highlight the need for targeted dissemination strategies to realize the sizable benefits of PBR cowpea for small-scale, resource-constrained farmers.

The landscape of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa: Are youth driving structural transformation?

This paper assesses the landscape and evolution of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa, focusing on three important countries—Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria—which together account for 40 percent of Africa’s youth population. We also examine whether Africa’s youth are driving structural transformation. To do so, we combine nationally representative data and surveys spanning more than two decades (from the 1990s to the 2020s). We situate the analysis within the region’s pressing youth unemployment challenge, where annual labor-force entrants surpass job creation. Our findings show that, despite substantial heterogeneities across countries, largely due to sectoral composition of economies, youth remain engaged in agriculture almost as much as adults. While labor continues to gradually shift out of agriculture, it has moved overwhelmingly into services rather than industry, reinforcing the unique pattern of structural transformation in Africa. More importantly, exit rates from agriculture are similar for youth and adults, except in Ethiopia, where youth are leaving agriculture at slightly higher rates than adults. In Ethiopia and Kenya, the entry rate into services is higher among young women, while entry into industry is higher among young men, suggesting distributional and equity implications of Africa’s ongoing structural transformation. These findings offer important insights and challenge simplistic views that youth are leaving agriculture in “droves” as well as the sometimes-embroidered perceptions of their role in that transformation. We discuss the implications of these findings for sustaining inclusive employment opportunities and argue that agriculture should remain central to job creation efforts in Africa.

Does small-scale irrigation affect women’s time allocation? Insights from Ethiopia

Small-scale irrigation (SSI) interventions have received increasing attention as a potential pathway for women’s empowerment in sub-Saharan Africa. One key aspect of women’s empowerment that SSI can influence is women’s time burden. Hypothesized benefits of SSI for women are less energy exertion and reduced labor in agriculture. Yet, these hypotheses have not been tested empirically. We explore how household adoption of different SSI technologies affects the time allocation of women in the household, using two rounds of intrahousehold panel survey data from Ethiopia. Two different approaches are used to address potential endogeneity issues related to time-constant and time-varying factors that may be correlated with both SSI and time use: an instrumental variables-correlated random effects approach and a fractional multinomial logit-correlated random effects with control function approach. The results suggest that household use of SSI in general is associated with an increase in women’s leisure time. The results further suggest that household use of motor pumps is associated with an increase in women’s leisure time and reductions in the time they spend on farming and personal care. Given that women often provide the labor for irrigation using manual, labor-intensive methods, such as watering cans, buckets, or hand- or foot-powered treadle pumps, the results suggest that SSI using motorized methods has the potential to free up women’s time in farming and enable more leisure time. These findings have broad implications for women’s empowerment and labor allocation. Future research using new and more comprehensive data could explore the mechanisms for the findings in this study and determine if SSI enables women to improve their ability to allocate their time to activities they prefer.

Harvesting change: The impact of climate change on Africa’s agriFood systems

Africa is one of the most exposed continents to climate change. While global temperature has risen by 0.2°C per decade since 1991, in Africa the rate is faster, reaching 0.3°C (WMO 2022). Yet Africa contributes only modestly to climate change. Indeed, the continent emits 7 times less greenhouse gas compared to Europe and 15 times compared to North America (IPCC, 2023). In addition to rising temperatures, climate change affects Africa through several channels, including an increase in ocean levels, variations in precipitations (droughts and heavy rains), plant pests and animal diseases. Climate change is also expected to contribute to a significant reduction in arable land in the continent (IPCC, 2023). The new CAADP strategy and action plan for 2026-2035 recognizes that Africa is the hardest hit by climate change and that the phenomenon is one of the major threats to Africa’s agricultural systems and food security in the coming years.

All of these changes will affect agricultural production, a major challenge for Africa, as African economies and livelihoods remain heavily dependent on agriculture. Agriculture still represents 16% of Africa GDP with contributions ranging from 3% in Southern Africa to 25% in the eastern part of the continent. Due to the low level of labor productivity in agriculture, the sector’s contributions to total employment are higher than those of other sectors. By inducing structural changes in agricultural production, climate change will also affect trade flows by shifting comparative advantages between and within continents. Prices will also be affected. This Policy Brief i shows how Africa’s agricultural production and trade patterns are altered by climate change. It highlights the large impacts of climate change on agricultural production, reinforcing results from other work. It shows that the impacts on prices compound the production impacts on African economies and people given many countries in the region are net importers. However, the work also shows that there are substantial differences across the region in the size of the impacts.

Intra-African agricultural trade and implications for domestic food security

The 21st century ushered in a renewed sense of optimism regarding Africa’s economic prospects. With a rapidly growing population, a burgeoning consumer market, and vast agricultural potential, the continent stands at a pivotal juncture. Central to this narrative of transformation is the agenda for regional integration, championed by the African Union’s landmark African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). While the AfCFTA does not have a standalone protocol dedicated solely to agriculture or food security, these sectors are encompassed within the Protocol on Trade in Goods, which addresses tariff concessions, nontariff barriers, and rules of origin applicable to agricultural products. Officially operationalized in 2021, the AfCFTA aims to create a single market for goods and services, facilitating the free movement of businesspersons and investments, and ultimately paving the way for a continental customs union.1 Its primary objective is to significantly boost intra-African trade, which has historically languished at dismally low levels. Compared to Europe and North America, where intraregional trade represents a significant share of overall commerce, Africa’s internal level of trade remains markedly lower (UNCTAD 2021). This discrepancy is not merely a trade statistic; it reflects deep-seated structural issues with profound implications for one of the continent’s most pressing challenges: food security.

Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor 2025

The 2025 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) investigates critical topics related to Africa’s trade in agricultural products. As in previous editions of the report, we developed a database that corrects discrepancies in official trade flow values, as reported by importing and exporting countries; this database serves as the basis for analyzing Africa’s international, domestic, and regional trade. Following the 2024 report’s examination of the nexus between climate change and the environment, this year’s report focuses on food security and its linkage with global and intra-African trade.

The rice value chain in Africa

Rice is both a strategic commodity and a staple food in most African countries. It is the second most important source of dietary energy in the region, after maize, providing 9 percent of human calorie intake (van Oort 2023). In many countries, particularly in West Africa, per capita consumption exceeds 100 kg/year (FAO 2024), putting Africa second only to Asia. Due to the combined effects of population growth, changing diets, urbanization, and income growth in Africa, rice demand is now growing at 6 percent annually, faster than any other staple food (AfricaRice, n.d.), and projected to increase significantly in the next decade. By 2034, Africa is likely to be the largest importing region globally, despite increasing intraregional trade (FAO 2025).

Africa in global agricultural trade and food security: Recent trends

Africa’s agricultural trade was largely shaped by the colonial division of the continent in the 19th century, when the agriculture of several African regions was transformed into monocrop, export-oriented sectors that catered to the growing European demand for food, luxury products such as chocolate, and manufacturing inputs such as rubber and cotton (Bjornlund et al. 2020; Akyeampong 2017). This shift occurred at the expense of the domestic agricultural diversity and intra-African trade complementarity that had long ensured food security, and continued even after African countries gained their independence. Several African governments pursued agricultural policies similar to those of colonial times and focused on the export of a few crops to generate sufficient revenue to fund their industrialization and development plans. Between 1966 and 1973, for instance, nearly one-half of sub-Saharan African governments depended on the export of a single commodity to secure 50 percent of their export revenues (Bjornlund et al. 2020). This concentration had two negative repercussions on food security: (1) increased vulnerability to fluctuations in global commodity prices; and (2) decreased local and traditional food production, which threatened the availability of food for the growing African population.

The role of fertilizer trade in enhancing food security in Africa

A comprehensive approach to understanding the relationship between food security and trade must include the trade and accessibility of agricultural inputs. Fertilizers (organic and mineral) are crucial for delivering essential nutrients to crops, significantly boosting agricultural productivity and, in turn, enhancing food security. Increased fertilizer use can help make food more available and affordable by generating higher crop yields, lowering farmers’ production costs, and increasing supply. In addition, by achieving higher crop yields on the same land area, fertilizers can reduce the need to expand agricultural land, helping to prevent deforestation.

Reforming agrifood system subsidies: Synthesis of political economy findings from fish, fertilizer, and animal inputs

Subsidies are price distortions aimed at shifting incentives to generate a desired behavioral response. Agrifood system input subsidies aim to reduce the cost of components—such as fertilizer, fuel, animal feeds, vessels, and machinery—needed by farmers, fisherfolk, ranchers, and pastoralists to improve productivity. Such subsidies may occur in multiple forms, including vouchers that enable beneficiaries to receive a discount, a direct reduction in input retail prices borne by the state or distributors, or through tax reductions and exemptions. The cost of agricultural subsidies, inclusive of fertilizer subsidies, are estimated at USD 635 billion a year (Damania et al. 2023) while fisheries subsidies, including for fuel, fisheries management, and non-fuel tax exemptions, are estimated to total approximately USD 35 billion (Sumaila et al. 2019). While they can support poorer constituencies in the agrifood system who could not otherwise afford such inputs, subsidies can be prone to corruption and leakage to elites, generate negative environmental externalities, and place undue pressure on public sector finances (Amaglobeli, Benson, and Mogues 2024; Damania et al. 2023; Jayne et al. 2018). In addition, they can generate distributional conflicts among different constituencies—both within countries and across countries—and these conflicts can undermine program implementation as well as hinder needed reforms.

Public expenditure on agriculture, youth out-migration, and engagement in agriculture? Evidence from Nigeria

Theoretical models posit that migration decisions are driven by differences in economic opportunities across locations, including across rural and urban areas, which implies that increased rural investment can curb rural-urban migration and encourage engagement in agriculture. However, direct empirical evidence of this remains scant, especially on youth migration in Africa. We fill this knowledge gap by examining the effect of temporal changes in public expenditures for the agriculture sector (PEA) on rural youth’s migration and engagement in rural economies in Nigeria. We combine unique subnational data that capture PEA’s spatiotemporal variations and individual level youth data and estimate two-way fixed effects models. We find that a 1 percentage point increase (equivalent to a 25 percent increase) in the share of PEA, is associated with up to 0.9 percentage points reduction in youth’s out-migration. Conversely, an increase in PEA leads to increased youth engagement in farm activities. Our results suggest that public investments in rural economies can mitigate youth out-migration from rural areas. These results have important implications for informing youth and migration policies, especially in the context of Africa, often characterized by its youth bulge and the exodus of youth from rural areas because of perceived lack of economic opportunities.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: October 2025

Sudan’s markets in October 2025 showed relative stability with several commodities experiencing improved availability and quality. Wheat and wheat flour prices declined, while sorghum, millet, vegetables, lentils, meat, oilseeds, and sugar showed mixed but generally stable trends. Fuel prices fell early in the month before stabilizing, and fertilizer prices remained steady with better availability.

Regional disparities persisted, with Darfur, Kordofan, and parts of Blue Nile continuing to record the highest prices for many goods due to conflict, transport disruptions, and liquidity constraints. Supply chain problems increased compared with September, driven by security concerns, high transport costs, exchange rate pressures, and limited cash access. Most merchants reported no major challenges related to storage, power, or hiring workers, although market safety concerns rose slightly, especially in North Darfur.

Tax compliance increased at the federal level but remained highest at state and locality levels. Despite ongoing challenges, merchants continued to show resilience: over half plan to maintain current trade levels, nearly one-third expect to expand, and only small shares intend to reduce trade, change commodities, or relocate, although uncertainty increased modestly.

Impact of conflict on key agro-industries in Khartoum State, Sudan: Wheat flour milling, oil processing, and packaging

This study evaluates the effects of the ongoing armed conflict in Sudan on the agro-industrial sector in Khartoum state, with a focus on the wheat flour milling, edible oil, and packaging materials industries. The conflict, which started in April 2023, has led to widespread population displacement, destruction of infrastructure, and severe economic disruptions, especially in Khartoum, Sudan’s most industrialized and densely populated state.

The assessment is based on a combination of primary data, including satellite imagery, site visits, technical questionnaires, and key informant interviews, and secondary sources, such as official reports. Data were collected from 15 industrial facilities located in the Khartoum North, Garri, and Soba industrial zones. These include four facilities in the wheat flour milling sector, ten in the edible oil sector, and one in the packaging materials sector.

Due to security constraints and widespread infrastructure destruction, access to the industrial zones and the factories was restricted. Moreover, price volatility, inflation, and shortages of skilled labor and materials further complicated the assessment, making it difficult to accurately value the observed and reported damages and losses in these industries.

Our estimate of the total estimated damages and losses across the three sectors is USD 407 million. Financial losses represent 51 percent of these losses, while about 23 percent of the losses were related to losses of inventory and 11 percent to losses of logistical and maintenance assets of the agro-businesses. The wheat flour milling sector incurred the highest overall losses. Notably, financial losses dominate across the three sectors, primarily driven by the conflict halting factory operations and disrupting supply chains.

Recovery for these industries will be prolonged. In the wheat flour milling sector, the average repair timeline anticipated for bringing production buildings back into full use is 6.8 months, while for electrical systems, it is 5.7 months. Estimated repair periods for the edible oil sector are 6.0 months for oilseed handling and preparation machinery and 5.9 months for electrical systems. Expected repair periods for electrical components in the packaging materials are similarly 6.0 months, reflecting relatively similar challenges in restoring operational capacity across the three industrial sectors.

Stakeholder interviews underscored the urgent need for enhanced security, improved access to financing, tax relief, and market protection. Government responses—guided by the 2024 Sudan Industrial Development Conference—have focused on deploying security forces, improving institutional coordination, and providing limited financial support to the country’s factories. However, significant implementation gaps remain, particularly in access to financing for and enforcement of regulatory measures within the industrial sector.

A phased, sector-specific industrial recovery strategy is recommended that prioritizes financial recovery, inventory replenishment, and restoration of infrastructure critical to industrial production. Also needed is stronger coordination between public and private sector actors, improved access to concessional financing, and a better alignment of industrial policy with agricultural supply chains to foster long-term resilience in the agro-industrial sector.

Conflict and agricultural inputs: Impacts on maize yields in Nigeria

While standard agronomic recommendations advocate for increased application of inorganic fertilizer to boost maize yields across sub-Saharan Africa, there is limited understanding of how violent conflict influences smallholder farmers’ fertilizer demand, yield responses, and the overall profitability of fertilizer use. This study addresses this gap by analyzing how exposure to conflict affects input use decisions and the economic returns to fertilizer among maize farmers in Nigeria. Using detailed household-level data and spatially referenced conflict events, we estimate maize yield response functions with respect to nitrogen application and assess the profitability of fertilizer under varying levels of conflict exposure. Our findings reveal three key results. First, the marginal physical product (MPP) of nitrogen is low across the study sample, indicating limited agronomic responsiveness. Second, conflict exposure significantly reduces the likelihood and intensity of fertilizer use, suggesting that insecurity constrains both input access and willingness to invest. Third, conflict lowers the MPP of nitrogen even further, thereby reducing the marginal value-cost ratio (MVCR) and undermining the profitability of fertilizer use. These results highlight the importance of considering conflict as a key external factor that distorts input-output relationships in agricultural production. Insecurity not only affects access to inputs through higher prices and disrupted supply chains, but also alters expected returns, making fertilizer investments less attractive for risk-averse farmers. Recognizing the effects of conflict on fertilizer use and yield response is essential for designing more effective input subsidy programs, targeting strategies, and resilience-building interventions in fragile agricultural systems.

Food systems in conflict-prone and climate-affected areas of Northern Nigeria: Humanitarian and development challenges

Protracted conflict and climate shocks have profoundly disrupted food systems in northern Nigeria, yet little empirical evidence exists on how these shocks shape the functioning of the region’s food system (production, transportation, value addition, and trade). This study addresses this evidence gap by combining GIS-based mapping, cost structure analysis, and investment opportunities in food production, transportation, processing, and trade in key staple commodities across conflict-prone and climate-affected areas of northern Nigeria and connected market hubs. The analysis quantifies cost structures for key food supply chain actors, identifies systemic food system inefficiencies driven by conflict and climate factors, and examines how these factors undermine both commercial and humanitarian food flows. By integrating commodity-specific diagnostics with stakeholder perspectives, the study offers an evidence-based rationale for prioritizing interventions in conflict contexts. Two investment cases—on-farm storage and localized wheat milling—illustrate how targeted actions can reduce losses, enhance resilience, and create co-benefits for humanitarian operations and market recovery. By combining food-flow maps and cost structures for multiple actors along the food supply chain in a high-risk environment, and by demonstrating simplified approaches to linking empirical diagnostics with practical investment strategies, the study’s findings contribute to the literature on the functioning of food systems in conflict-prone and climate-affected contexts. In addition, the findings provide evidence to support policy changes, interventions, and investment decisions aimed at transforming food systems and addressing structural failures, while enhancing the efficacy of short-term humanitarian interventions. They also address the underlying causes of chronic food insecurity and support economic recovery in the region.

Gender, nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions, and resilience: Evidence from rural Bangladesh

We assess whether a gender- and nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions, fielded in rural Bangladesh, aimed at improving food production diversity enhanced resilience and whether impacts persisted post-intervention. Four years post-program, treatment arms that included both agriculture and nutrition training reduced the likelihood that households undertook more severe forms of coping strategies during the Covid-19 pandemic. There were persistent improvements in household consumption and diet quality; impacts were largest for poor but not the poorest households in our sample. Underlying these results were the long-term beneficial impacts on women’s agricultural knowledge, agency, and increased engagement in agricultural activities.

Can digital cash transfers serve those in active conflict? Evidence from a randomized intervention in Sudan

This paper evaluates the impact of digital transfers on the well-being of households grappling with active conflict in Sudan. Considering the case of Sudan, where active conflict and funding gaps continue to hamper the delivery of humanitarian services, we aim to address the following questions: (i) Can digital cash transfers improve food and nutrition security outcomes of beneficiaries in conflict-affected settings?; (ii) Can digital transfers to an other-wise inaccessible population improve subjective well-being, mental health, and stress in the face of recurrent conflicts?; and (iii) Who benefits more from digital transfers, and do the impacts of digital transfers vary depending on the size of transfers or socioeconomic characteristics of households? To address these questions, we design a randomized controlled trial (RCT) involving digital transfers of different sizes to randomly selected urban households in Sudan. Digital transfers reached nearly all targeted beneficiaries, with about a quarter of households receiving them through their friends and relatives and hence incurring some transaction fees. Overall, digital transfers mitigated deterioration in food insecurity (by 7-8 percentage points) and improved subjective well-being and mental health. Interestingly, we find that the digital transfers are more beneficial (impactful) for those grappling with active conflict. Digital transfers also appear to be less effective for poorer households and households of a larger size. These findings highlight the potential of digital transfers to support those grappling with armed conflict.

A good global investment for the European Commission: How investing in CGIAR reduces global poverty and benefits E.U. citizens

CGIAR investments have delivered substantial economic benefits for the E.U. while reducing global poverty and food insecurity. CGIAR has boosted productivity on E.U. farms, expanded export markets, and made food more affordable for E.U. consumers. It has also helped prevent potential damage from pests and diseases that threaten E.U. farm livelihoods. This note quantifies the benefits to farmers, exporters and consumers.

Farmers agronomic management responses to extreme drought and rice yields in Bihar, India

In 2022, the Indian state of Bihar experienced its sixth driest year in over a century. To document the consequences and farmer responses to the meteorological drought, real-time survey data was collected across 11 districts of Bihar. We then developed a causal machine learning model to quantify drought impacts on rice production and to characterize how access to affordable irrigation from electric pumps mitigated productivity losses. This model addresses the empirical challenge of conducting a counterfactual causal analysis when a factor like drought affects nearly all sampled farmers. In the 2022 event, drought led to rice acreage reduction, transplanting delays, damage to seedling nurseries, and higher use rates of supplemental irrigation. For fields that were planted, average yield losses from water stress were estimated as 0.94 t/ha (∼23 % yield loss) with these losses reduced by 0.3 t/ha in fields with access to electric tubewells. Agronomic management practices such as earlier transplanting were also identified as complementary strategies that increased the adaptation value of investments in irrigation. To reduce the impact of drought in Bihar, additional investments in electric irrigation infrastructure are needed along with focused extension efforts and decision support systems that empower farmers to make economically and sustainably rational use of available water resources to maintain yield and profitability.

Agro-silvo-pastoralism

Agro-silvo-pastoralism is an agricultural practice combining crop cultivation (agro), forestry (silvo), and animal husbandry (pastoralism) within the same system. It is an integrated approach to land management, applicable to a wide range of ecological conditions [1] that aims to create a harmonious interconnection between its components, thereby maximizing overall system productivity, promoting production diversification and biodiversity, and ensuring sustainability [2]. Agro-silvo-pastoralism systems were already known during the Roman Empire; such systems are mentioned in works like "De Agri Cultura" by Cato (second century B.C.), "Naturalis Historia" by Pliny the Elder (first century B.C.), and "De Re Rustica" by Varro (37 B.C.) [3]. Archeological studies prove that the practice is rooted in the Bronze Age [4], [5]. In recent years, the interest in agro-silvo-pastoralism has been renewed because of its potential to sustain rural farming in marginal areas and to adapt to the challenges posed by climate change [6]. In Brazil, for example, areas under agro-silvo-pastoralism amount to 17 million hectares, with a potential to reach three times that number.

Mechanical soil and water conservation

In semi-arid areas, where water scarcity and poor soil condition pose significant threats to agricultural production and to the livelihood of individual smallholders and communities, water and soil management are critical for food/water security. Limited renewable freshwater and erratic rainfall patterns in those areas restrict the reliance on irrigation, making water conservation strategies more pressing and necessary [1]. Moreover, implementing advanced irrigation systems may be challenging due to limited resources and a lack of technical expertise [2]. For smallholder farmers, the adoption of irrigation systems, such as drip irrigation, is limited by further constraints such as high costs, limited access to finance, lack of technical support, and may not be suitable for all local conditions and cropping systems [3]. Under these constraints, promoting water and soil conservation strategies practices as part of a broader water management package to increase agricultural productivity at the farm level becomes crucial for ensuring sustainable agricultural production.

Rebuilding trust in local leadership in conflict-affected settings: The impact of community-based cash transfers

Trust in local leadership is critical for effective delivery of public goods and services -especially in conflict-affected and post-conflict settings, where local institutions and markets remain weak, and peacebuilding and recovery efforts are crucial. Thus, identifying avenues and instruments for rebuilding trust in local leadership remains important. Building on a recent and large-scale armed conflict in Ethiopia, we study the impact of a randomized community-based cash transfer on trust in local leadership. The randomized cash transfer was introduced after the war in Ethiopia and its implementation involved local community leaders, some of whom may have participated in the conflict. We find that exposure to armed conflict is associated with a significant
deterioration in trust in local leaders, while the community-based cash transfer recovers some of the deteriorated trust. We provide suggestive evidence that the impacts of cash transfer are driven not only by those who received the cash transfer but also by non-beneficiary households in communities where the cash transfer is implemented. Our heterogeneity analysis reveals that the treatment effect is largely driven by poor households and households which do not benefit from government safety net programs. These results have important implications for policy design in rebuilding trust in local leadership in post-conflict and fragile settings.

The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria

Over the past decade Nigeria has experienced persistent food price inflation and substantial volatility, driven by domestic fragilities and global shocks. Three major shocks – the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), the Ukraine-Russia war (2022), and fuel subsidy reform (2023) – drove large and uneven price increases, with wheat prices rising by 63.3% and brown sorghum by 83.9%. Volatility was highest for wheat flour and groundnuts, with coefficients of variation of 0.53 and 0.51, reflecting Nigeria’s dependence on imports and sensitivity to external price shocks. This study utilizes high-frequency retail price data for eight staple food commodities across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory to analyze spatial and temporal food price dynamics, volatility patterns, and their welfare implications. To quantify welfare impacts, we use the International Food Policy Research Institute’s Food Price Simulator. Results show a 9.1 percentage point increase in food poverty (from 42.9% to 52.0%) and an 11.6-point rise in undernourishment (from 40.0% to 51.6%). Lower-income households reduced food expenditures by 12.7%, compared to 9.5% for higher-income groups, reflecting disproportionate exposure to food inflation. Northern zones had relatively lower prices for traditional grains due to more favorable agroecological conditions, while southern regions faced higher prices due to higher transport costs and limited local production. Conflict-affected northeastern states exhibited the highest volatility and food insecurity. We propose a three-pronged policy agenda: short-term safety nets and strategic reserves, medium-term reforms to strengthen market connectivity through improved transport and storage infrastructure, and long-term investments in climate-resilient, inclusive food systems.

Signaling, screening, or sunk costs? Experimental evidence on how prices affect agricultural technology adoption in East Africa

Free samples are a widely used strategy to introduce new products or technologies, offering prospective users the opportunity to gain firsthand experience and potentially facilitate diffusion through social networks. However, concerns remain that giving away products for free may reduce their perceived value, increasing the risk that recipients will underutilize, repurpose, or resell the product rather than use it for its intended purpose. We explore three mechanisms through which charging a positive price may increase uptake, intended use and subsequent adoption of a new technology: (1) a signaling effect, where a positive price conveys higher product quality; (2) a screening effect, whereby payment deters users who do not value the product and targets those more likely to use it; and (3) a sunk cost effect, where paying a positive price induces a psychological commitment to use. We test how these pricing mechanisms shape uptake, use, and subsequent adoption of recently released seed varieties of staple food crops, drawing on a field experiment with smallholder farmers in Uganda and Ethiopia. We find that willingness to pay is a reliable predictor of subsequent use of seed trial packs, pointing to the value of modest prices for targeting likely adopters. At the same time, sunk cost effects are context specific and often negative, suggesting that charging farmers can reduce their ability or willingness to experiment. These findings carry important implications for how pricing strategies can be designed to promote technology adoption in low-income settings.

Advanced spatial analytics for policy support: Use cases from One CGIAR

The CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations (“Policy Program”) is committed to driving transformation across Food, Land, and Water (FLW) systems. Identifying viable policies and investment options through Foresight and Prioritization exercises (Area of Work 1) is key to reaching this goal. However, prioritizing interventions that are relevant to local needs and conditions, while addressing global drivers and megatrends that affect FLW systems across different scales remains a challenge. This report seeks to address this challenge. It demonstrates how spatial analytics, a fast-evolving field that sits at the intersection of economics, public policy, geography, and data science, can provide actionable policy insights. It also aims to equip policymakers and partners with advanced and accessible spatial analytical tools to design and implement tailored policies, investments and programs. The report starts by providing a unified framework that brings together diverse spatial analytics approaches to support policy. It reviews the evolution of spatial analytics, spanning geographic information systems (GIS), spatial economics, and economic models with spatially explicit inputs and outputs. It also introduces a taxonomy of building blocks to illustrate how different spatial tools and methods can address various policy questions. This report draws on 11 use cases from across CGIAR centers in which spatial analytics have been applied to inform policies across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It demonstrates how spatial analytics can identify priority intervention areas and appropriate actions at the local level while accounting for global drivers. Key challenges in scaling spatial analytics for policy application are also identified, including data gaps, methodological complexities, and computational constraints. The report concludes by outlining future directions to fully leverage spatial analytics for policy support. This report aims to advance the integration of spatial analytics across disciplines and scales, enabling the translation of local spatial patterns into regional and global policy frameworks. The curated use cases show that spatial analytics is no longer a niche technical exercise, but an operational tool that facilitates FLW systems transformation towards desirable futures. By systematically linking spatial heterogeneity to multi-scale policy needs, spatial analytics can generate actionable and scalable insights for policy development and implementation

Healthy diets and the role of micro, small, and medium enterprises: Examining Ethiopia’s food environment

Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) play an important role in the food environment in many low- and middle-income countries. But there is little systematic knowledge about the opportunities they have and constraints they face in trying to grow their businesses. To contribute to building this knowledge base, we draw upon linked household–enterprise surveys collected in two districts in Ethiopia in 2023. To learn about the constraints faced by these enterprises, we examine differences in organizational characteristics and business practices by outlet type, location, and manager gender and education among MSMEs that sell food. The results suggest that while there are clear availability constraints for specific types of foods, there are some strategies that could help MSMEs that retail healthy foods increase sales. If policymakers or others are interested in supporting sales through the food environment, interventions such as business training, service access, and capacity building on nutrition would best fit their needs.

Cash, food, and vouchers: An overview of the evidence

The choice of different modalities for transferring resources to extremely poor households—food provided in-kind, cash, or intermediate modalities such as vouchers—has long been the subject of active debate in both policy and research. This note provides an overview of the recent evidence around the relative effectiveness of cash and food aid, drawing on studies conducted over the last 20 years around the world.

Each modality has some potential advantages. Cash transfers are flexible in allowing recipients to use resources to meet a range of material needs (including, but not limited to food); and when they do choose to purchase food, allows them to choose a basket of items that is optimal based on their preferences. (The corresponding disadvantage of food transfers is that if recipients de sire nonfood items, they have to resell food for funds, often at a nontrivial transaction cost.) Cash transfers are often easier and lower-cost to deliver (particularly given the substantial growth of electronic payment systems) compared with the more complex logistical requirements of delivering food, especially perishable food. They are also generally less observable, potentially rendering them less likely to generate stigma or demands for sharing from nonrecipients. Cash can also have indirect beneficiaries through positive spillover effects in the local economy, though the evidence base for this is not large, and suggests that spillovers may be negative in some contexts.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: September 2025

In September 2025, Sudan’s markets showed relative stability despite conflict, inflation, and weather related disruptions. Cereal and vegetable prices remained broadly stable, while meat, oilseeds, and fuel saw moderate fluctuations. Availability of most essential goods improved slightly, though Darfur states continued to record the highest prices. The parallel exchange rate rose to about 3,100 SDG/USD, widening the gap with the official rate. Traders cited transport costs, heavy rains, and checkpoint fees as key drivers of higher prices, though logistical challenges eased from August. Liquidity and infrastructure conditions improved: 71 percent of merchants reported no cash short ages and 93 percent faced no storage or power issues. However, security risks persisted in Darfur and Kordofan, affecting trade safety. Profit margins remained mostly stable, while tax compliance declined, especially at the federal level. Despite ongoing challenges, merchants remain resilient—two-thirds plan to maintain current trade levels, and nearly one-fifth aim to expand, reflecting cautious optimism amid uncertainty.

Taking stock: Impacts of 50 years of policy research at IFPRI

As the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) marks its 50th anniversary, the Institute and its key stakeholders pause to take stock of what is known about its policy influence and impact over the years. What does the available evidence tell us about IFPRI’s achievements as an international research institution? Have its activities contributed to better policy and investment decisions by governments, development agencies, nongovernmental organizations, the private sector, and others involved in the economic and social development of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)?

This report builds on a stocktaking paper published for IFPRI’s 40th anniversary, whose findings were generally favorable, by using more recent external sources of evidence to provide updated answers to these questions. It synthesizes bibliometric and download data, as well as a series of independently conducted impact assessment studies of many of IFPRI’s research programs and projects. This task has been facilitated by the availability of 40 such evaluations, commissioned by IFPRI, the CGIAR Research Programs on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health and on Policies, Institutions, and Markets, or project donors. Additionally, other agencies commissioned several evaluations of specific country and regional policies that IFPRI helped influence. This wealth of independent assessments is rare for a policy research institution. Moreover, IFPRI’s commissioning or co-commissioning of 36 impact assessments over 25 years demonstrates a serious commitment to an impact evaluation culture and a willingness to learn from its experiences.

Graduating from Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme: What have we learned?

Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) – one of the largest social protection programs in Africa – has improved food security and strengthened recovery from shocks, yet it has achieved limited progress in raising incomes or diversifying livelihoods. In response, policymakers have layered graduation models onto the PSNP to promote sustainable self-reliance. This note synthesizes evaluation evidence from NGO- and government-led initiatives. NGO-led intensive, high-cost models increased assets and incomes in the short to medium term but rarely enabled households to exit the program. NGO-led lighter-touch approaches improved resilience but delivered minimal gains in overall well-being. Government-led efforts have faced persistent delivery challenges, including overstretched systems, weak credit access, and limited market linkages. Broader structural constraints, such as shrinking landholdings, scarce nonfarm opportunities, and recurrent drought and other shocks, further undermine the promise of graduation programming in this context. The review highlights six policy lessons on design, financing, and integration with broader development strategies to shape more effective approaches going forward.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: August 2025

This report presents an overview of trends in prices, availability, and quality of key commodities, while also capturing traders’ perceptions of supply, demand, and market conditions in Sudan between February and August 2025.

Sidama Coffee Agronomy Program: Impact report

Coffee is Ethiopia’s most important export crop, and it constitutes an important source of livelihood for an estimated 15 million people across the value chain, most of whom are poor smallholder farmers. While coffee production and exports generally increased over the last decade or so, several constraints are still keeping the sector from attaining its full potential. Low-yielding, aged coffee trees and poor farm management and agronomic practices are among the main constraints. Between 2019 and 2022, TechnoServe (TNS)—in collaboration with Max und Ingeburg Herz Stiftung/HereWeGrow (HWG)— implemented a 25-month coffee agronomy training program in the Sidama region of Ethiopia that comprised a package of interventions to address these constraints and increase smallholders’ coffee productivity and income. In particular, the program covered five woredas/districts (Aleta Chuko, Dale, Bona Zuria, Hawela, Shebedino) and reached 47,759 farm households in two cohorts (2019 and 2020).

Exploring the barriers and facilitators of nutrition and dietary intake among school-aged children in the urban low-income setting of Addis Ababa

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES
Healthy eating supports mental clarity, physical development, and focus in the classroom. However, government policy, cultural customs, education, family income, and food access, influence children's nutrition, which in turn affects school-age children's growth, development, and academic achievement. This study aimed to explore the barriers and facilitators influencing the nutritional and dietary intake of school-age children in urban low-income settings in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

SUBJECTS/METHODS
A total of 10 schools (6 public and 4 private) from 2 subcities in Addis Ababa participated in a qualitative phenomenological study conducted in May 2024. Focus group discussions, key informant interviews (KIIs), and in-depth interviews (IDIs) with 92 participants were used to gather data. A total of 77 participants (41 male, 36 female) participated in 6 focus groups, 10 IDIs, and 5 KIIs from the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Education, Save the Children, Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH), and Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI). Using MAXQDA software, native language data were transcribed, translated, and then thematically analyzed.

RESULTS
Two major themes emerged from the study's findings. The fisrt one is barriers to healthy nutrition and dietary intake in school-aged children, including lack of awareness, inadequate and unhealthy dietary practices, financial hardship and time constraints within households, parental lack of awareness, food accessibility issues, poor infrastructure, and inconsistent policies. These factors were described as potential contributors to challenges in children's nutrition. The second one is facilitators, which include school meal programs, community engagement, family support, physical activity, and policy support for healthy eating, all of which are seen as promoting healthier dietary behaviors and possibly improving children's focus and participation in school activities.

CONCLUSION
Several factors influence children's diet and nutrition. Improving children's nutritional and general well-being requires focused nutrition education, policy interventions, and the utilization of coordinators.

A good global investment for the United States: How investing in CGIAR makes America stronger, safer and more prosperous

This report documents how CGIAR investments have delivered substantial economic, security, and diplomatic benefits for the U.S. that far exceed financial contributions. By driving agricultural innovation and providing evidence-based insights, CGIAR has boosted U.S. farm productivity, expanded export markets, and made food more affordable for American consumers. It has also helped prevent billions of dollars in potential damage from pests and diseases that threaten U.S. food security and farm livelihoods. CGIAR promotes American leadership in agricultural innovation by supplying the majority of the genetic materials used in U.S. crop breeding and acting as a critical research partner for U.S. businesses and universities. CGIAR also makes America safer and stronger through its work on predicting crises, protecting food security, and on improving livelihoods as an alternative to migration.

Women’s control over income and household spending decisions: A rapid review

Often-cited studies show that when women influence or control household spending decisions, they tend to spend in ways that improve the welfare of their household. However, these studies are decades old, and the most recent review of this evidence was published over a decade ago (see Doss 2013). We present a rapid review of this literature since 2013 on women’s relative bargaining power over household resource allocation and its relationship with key well-being outcomes. Specifically, we review the evidence to answer the following questions: 1) Does women’s control over income within the household influence household expenditure patterns?; 2) Does the source of women’s income matter for spending decisions?; and 3) Does the amount of women’s income matter for spending decisions?

We employ a rapid review approach to identify research published since 2013 that focuses on how women who have influence or control over spending decisions allocate those resources and associations with well-being outcomes. Utilizing key search terms and clear selection criteria, we identified 46 papers. Most studies represent sub-Saharan Africa. They employed a range of methods and represented a mix of observational and experimental (or quasi-experimental) designs. Most studies did not specify the source of income, but we did identify those focused on income from agricultural or off-farm activities, remittances, and cash transfers.

Our review of the literature since 2013 has generally found evidence that is consistent with the research prior to 2013, but more convincing as there has been an increase in causal evidence published. Compared to men, women prioritize spending on investments in children, their education, food – including more diverse and nutrient-dense foods – and on healthcare regardless of income source. Overall, women’s influence over resource allocation decisions tend to promote equitable distribution of money to boy and girl children. We see mixed results around how women prioritize investing in savings compared to men; several studies indicated women prioritize savings more than men but do so for different reasons, although one study in a matrilineal society indicated that women prioritize food budgets at the expense of building savings. And finally, there is consistent evidence that the share of household budgets spent on adult goods or vices (primarily alcohol and tobacco) reduces when women have higher relative bargaining power over how these resources are allocated. Few studies considered how the amount of money influenced women’s ability to allocate it, suggesting that women may be able to influence spending over smaller amounts of resources compared to larger expenditures.

To address gaps identified in the literature, future studies could look across income from different sources to understand whether women have greater influence or control over certain income streams compared to others, or how the source of income may influence how the money is allocated. They could also explore the relative amount of income women can control and how women’s control over income fluctuates as total household income changes. We recommend a systematic evidence review to assess the different levers influencing women’s relative bargaining power over resource allocation within a household and understanding the outcomes of women’s bargaining power.

IFPRI Making a difference

From the 2025 update: The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) reaches millions of people through its mission to provide research-based policy solutions to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods; contribute to empowerment for all; and promote sustainable, climate-resilient food systems. Together with partners, IFPRI generates needed evidence for global, regional, and national policies, investments, programs, and institutions that contribute to poverty reduction and help ensure that all people have access to safe, sufficient, nutritious, and sustainably produced food. IFPRI is a Research Center of CGIAR, the world’s largest agricultural innovation network, and is the only CGIAR Center solely dedicated to food policy research. Through multisectoral research and engagement with stakeholders, IFPRI also informs effective policies, programs, investments, and institutions that contribute to productive livelihoods and sustainable, resilient, and equitable agriculture and food systems. The pathway from research to impact can be direct or, at times, more difficult to trace. IFPRI commissions independent, peer-reviewed assessments of our work and engages researchers in internally validating our activities. This brochure highlights some of these stories to show how IFPRI’s research is making a difference for people and the planet. With this work, we are advancing toward our vision of a sustainable world free from poverty and malnutrition.

From the 2021 update: IFPRI is reaching the lives of millions of people through its contribution to policies and programs that reduce poverty, hunger, and malnutrition. This looks at how a selection of IFPRI’s research is contributing to better outcomes for food and nutrition security and poverty reduction.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: July 2025

This report analyzes market dynamics in Sudan between February and July 2025, focusing on prices, availability, quality, fuel, exchange rates, and traders’ perceptions of supply, demand, profits, and market conditions.

Between February and July 2025, Sudan’s markets showed mixed trends and sharp regional disparities. Cereal prices were mostly stable: wheat held steady with a short rise in early July, sorghum increased in June then stabilized, millet fluctuated slightly, and wheat flour fell in early July before rising sharply. Wheat and wheat flour availability improved, while sorghum and millet availability declined marginally.

Digital literacy training to promote diffusion of digital agricultural tools to smallholder farmers: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Egypt

Despite growing enthusiasm about the potential of digital innovations to transform agrifood systems, adoption among smallholder farmers in Africa remains low and heterogeneous. While the proliferation of digital tools targeting smallholder farmers is encouraging, the vast majority remain at pilot stages, facing important demand and supply-side barriers to adoption. This paper evaluates alternative digital literacy interventions designed to address these demand-side barriers. Following a Training of Trainers (TOT) model, we designed and implemented a randomized control trial to test three variants of digital literacy training: standard classroom-based digital literacy training (T1), digital training complemented (preceded) by a video-based play (T2), digital training complemented (preceded) by a live community play (T3), and a control group (C). We find that all variants of digital training significantly increased the uptake and utilization of digital tools by smallholder farmers. Specifically, the standard digital training alone increased uptake by 20 percentage points and utilization by 26 percentage points. The interventions also significantly enhanced farmer trust in digital tools by 8–13 percentage points. Surprisingly, for some outcomes, the digital literacy training alone outperformed the combined approaches that incorporated edutainment nudges. We explore possible explanations, including group size effects and social influence dynamics during the plays. We also document heterogeneity in the impact of these interventions across farmers’ gender and age. Our findings offer insights for designing cost effective and scalable interventions to build digital capabilities and trust among smallholder farmers.

Gender attitudes in agriculture and positivity bias: A survey experiment in four countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Extensive prior research has demonstrated that reducing gender discrimination enhances women’s empowerment, promotes more inclusive livelihoods, increases agricultural productivity, and improves other development outcomes. This study aims to contribute to documenting and informing the measurement of gender attitudes that relate directly to reaching, benefiting, and empowering women through agricultural innovations. By analyzing data from 8,051 survey respondents across study sites in Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Rwanda, our findings emphasize both commonalities and differences in gender attitudes across different contexts. Furthermore, by including a survey-based experiment during data collection, we assess whether gender-attitude statements vary depending on whether they are presented in a positive frame (focusing on equality) or in a negative frame (focusing on inequality). On average, rural women and men respondents across all countries supported more than half of the gender-equality statements. Some gender-inequality attitudes persisted across the four countries but varied in magnitude and by location, age group, and specific statement or theme. Framing matters: respondents exposed to a positive framing supported 16 percent more gender-equality statements than those exposed to a negative framing. The study highlights two main implications. First, the findings indicate the importance of considering both restrictive
attitudes and those that reflect gender-equality opportunities as being in the vanguard. Accordingly, gender-focused interventions should adopt strategies that challenge normative
views of women as supporting rather than leading actors in agriculture and economic activities. Second, gender-attitude measures do not perfectly align with country-level gender-equality
indicators or with empowerment at the intrahousehold level. They therefore capture a distinct dimension and merit their own indicators.

Displacement and development: Evidence from a graduation program for Somalia’s ultra-poor

While the population of internally displaced people around the world continues to grow, evidence around strategies to sustainably enhance livelihoods among IDPs remains extremely limited. We present findings from a randomized trial of an ultra-poor graduation program targeting IDPs in urban Baidoa, Somalia; the intervention pro-vided cash transfers, an asset transfer or technical training program, and facilitated savings groups. Our findings suggest that two years following program launch, the intervention has led to significant increases in consumption, assets, and savings; however, these effects seem to be driven almost exclusively by increased livestock production. An exploration of heterogeneous effect using generalized random forest methods further suggests that the positive effects of the treatment are dramatically larger for smaller households characterized by lower dependency ratios.

Food system institutional mapping and capacity assessment in Niger

Niger faces rampant food insecurity, malnutrition, and environmental degradation. The transformation of food systems to tackle such challenges hinges on the capacity and effectiveness of institutional frameworks. To analyze the status, challenges, and strengths of Niger’s food system, a mapping and capacity needs assessment was conducted at three levels—enabling environment, institutional, and individual. Based on the assessment, leadership concerns on strategic guidance were observed at the policy process level, with major issues such as the incidence of corruption, infrastructure constraints, and lack of reliable data availability. At the institutional level, lack of an interconnected network and mutual accountability, resource and funding constraints, and high staff turnover have adversely impacted overall institutional performance. Availability of reliable data evidence is limited or absent due to weak monitoring and evaluation systems and decentralized capacity, lack of sufficient local support, transparency issues in strategy development, and selection bias. At the individual level, there is a need to improve technical capacity on analytical thinking, quantitative and qualitative research tools, and the dissemination of communication, outreach, and information. Despite the climate change-related challenges in the country, there is less focus on environmental management, adaptation, and advanced technology implementation. The underrepresentation of key areas such as socio-cultural dynamics, governance, social protection, and cross sectoral collaboration indicates a potential lack of integration in policymaking and implementation. Overall, there is an urgent need to reallocate resources to enhance the focus on underrepresented yet critical food systems areas, enhance inter-ministerial and cross-sectoral collaboration to ensure a more integrated approach to food systems management, and incorporate social inclusion and equity considerations. Forward-looking strategies should be developed that anticipate and respond to emerging challenges such as demographic shifts, globalization effects, and technological changes.

Ethical use of artificial intelligence in food, land and water systems research: A guide for equity and inclusion

This document aims to support CGIAR researchers and their partners by providing guidance, recommendations and resources on ethical considerations in using artificial intelligence (AI) in food, land and water systems (FLWS) research and practice with attention to equity and inclusion dimensions. This toolkit complements the GENDER Impact Platform Ethics and Standards Toolkit and aligns with CGIAR’s core ethical values outlined in the CGIAR Ethics Framework and the CGIAR Research Ethics Code.

In response to the rapid development and adoption of emerging AI technologies, the toolkit presents key issues and practical recommendations for researchers to consider across the research cycle, drawing on a comprehensive literature review and interviews with experts in AI ethics and social inclusion.

AI systems, as used in this context, refer to technologies that mimic aspects of human cognition and behavior—interpreting real-world data, generating predictions, and adapting through continuous learning (Benefo et al. 2022; Fu 2022; Manning et al. 2022). These systems are increasingly central to a suite of AI and agricultural technologies poised to transform FLWS research: not only in how we conduct research and generate insights, but also in how we define best practice for gender-related research and understand the downstream impacts of our research outputs.

The emerging one-stop shop in agricultural value chains: Agro-input retailers in Myanmar

With the intensification and modernization of agriculture in Myanmar, farmers are increasingly dependent on purchased agro-inputs—such as seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides—to enhance productivity. These inputs are typically acquired from small and medium-sized agro-input retailers. Despite their growing significance in agrifood value chains, limited research has examined the roles these retailers play. Drawing on large-scale, nationwide surveys of farmers and agro-input retailers in Myanmar, we explore their operations and implications in this context. Key findings include:
1. There is widespread and increased use of agro-chemicals in Myanmar. Among dry season crop farmers, pesticides were the most commonly purchased input, reported by 73 percent of respondents, closely followed by fertilizers at 72 percent. While fertilizer usage has remained relatively stable compared to nearly a decade ago (75 percent in 2016), pesticide use has increased significantly—rising by 13 percentage points since 2016.
2. The expansion of pesticide use is reflected in official data. In 2017, just over 500 pesticide products were registered; by 2024, this number had increased eightfold. Similarly, pesticide imports in 2023 were five times higher than in 2013.
3. Many agro-input retailers provide complementary services beyond product sales, offering services such as credit, agricultural extension advice, mechanization facilitation, transportation, crop buying, and emergency loans. These complementary services integrate them more deeply into agricultural value chains.
4. Only 12 percent of retailers provided none of the aforementioned complementary services, while 16 percent offered four or more. Competition is a driver of service provision—retailers located near competitors are more likely to offer extension and credit services.
5. Retailers in insecure areas are equally engaged in delivering complementary services as those in more secure regions.
6. Agro-input retailers are a vital source of credit, with nearly half of the farmers purchasing inputs on credit—typically at a monthly interest rate of 2 percent. Larger farmers are more likely than smaller ones to access credit through retailers.
7. Nearly half of the farmers reported receiving agricultural extension advice from their main retailer. This advice often pertains to retailer-sold products but can also address broader agronomic issues. Larger farmers are more likely to use these services than smaller ones. Given the limited availability of public extension services in Myanmar, agro-input retailers are an important, yet often overlooked, source of agricultural knowledge.
8. Despite their advisory role, farmers generally trust retailers’ advice less than other sources. Trust in agro-input retailers ranks below that in other farmers, public, and private extension agents, and only above trust in mills. Notably, medium and large farmers exhibit higher relative trust in retailers compared to smaller farmers.
9. Policy Implications:
• The rapid increase in pesticide use by farmers in the country raises a number of health, safety, and environmental concerns, especially in a situation where oversight is limited given insecurity and travel concerns.
• The decline in public agricultural service delivery, such as extension and credit, in the country also underscores the need for increased attention from stakeholders focused on agricultural productivity and equity. • While agro-input retailers play crucial, multifaceted roles, their services are not universally accessible. Over-reliance on private providers may risk marginalizing smaller farmers from critical services like credit.
• The dependence on retailers for extension advice raises concerns about accessibility and credibility. Low trust in retailer-provided information may hinder behavior change and contribute to product misuse, especially regarding inputs with health and environmental risks like pesticides.
• Further research is needed to understand the nature and impact of the advice given by private retailers. Complementary policy efforts—such as training, certification programs, and trust-building initiatives—may help enhance service quality and farmer confidence.

Leveraging project insights to strengthen WEAI for climate research

Key messages
• Measuring women’s empowerment in the context of climate change, resilience, and adaptation requires a flexible climate module—not a rigid, universal set of indicators.
• Collective agency, community involvement, and social networks are critical to climate resilience. The project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI)
should expand its climate module to better capture these community dynamics and collective actions.
• Integrating qualitative methods strengthens pro-WEAI’s effectiveness and ensures the tool is tailored to local contexts, which is essential for collecting meaningful and holistic data.

External assessment of outcomes from IFPRI’s causal impact evaluation research 2012–2022

This report describes methods and findings from an assessment of the International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI) causal impact evaluation (CIE) research over the period 2012–2022. CIE research is recognized within IFPRI as one of its primary means for contributing to informed policy and program decisions and thus forms a key part of one of its impact pathways. Appendix A contains the terms of reference (TOR) for the study. The main goal was to examine how the outputs of this research were used by stakeholders to make decisions. Many of the impact evaluations considered were conducted in partnership with donors and implementing organizations eager to know the effectiveness of their programs and interventions.

IFPRI at a glance

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) believes that by working together, the global community can sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI provides cutting-edge research and policy options on food and nutrition security to support these goals. For more than 40 years, IFPRI has collaborated with stakeholders and partners to contribute needed evidence for country- and region-led policies that help ensure that all people have access to safe, sufficient, nutritious, and sustainably grown food.

South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative: Abstract digest August 2025

The sixth edition of the Abstract Digest underscores a complex and evolving nutrition landscape in South Asia, characterized by the persisting "triple burden" of malnutrition – undernutrition, overweight and obesity, and anemia. The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown to 2030 provides an overarching global and regional assessment of reproductive, maternal, child, and adolescent health and nutrition, with an emphasis on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), especially in South Asia.

Broadly, the featured articles examine the importance of preconception care and interventions to improve maternal and child health, alongside analyses of antenatal care service utilization and its associated factors. Studies also examine the prevalence and determinants of various forms of malnutrition, and assess the effectiveness and cost-benefit of nutrition programs and interventions, focusing on India and Bangladesh. A few articles focus on adolescent nutrition, highlighting the rising rates of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents in countries like Nepal and Bangladesh, as well as opportunities to improve maternal, infant, young child, and adolescent nutrition service delivery in Bangladesh, India, and beyond. Several articles delve into the influence of food environments on dietary quality and health in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, as well as the broader context of health systems and policy implementation in LMICs. Many of the studies in this edition call for future research on rigorous evaluations of scalable interventions in real-world settings.

Please scroll down to explore the abstracts of these studies, and information on relevant events. If you were forwarded this Abstract Digest, we invite you to subscribe!

Happy reading!

2024 IFPRI annual report

IFPRI’s 2024 annual report reviews highlights from our research to reduce hunger and malnutrition, including work in conflict-affected settings and on nutrition and diets, and our engagement around the world through our country and regional offices and global events.