Publications

The effects of conflict-induced migration on food security and health related outcomes in Sudan: From displacement to despair

This study investigates the socioeconomic effects of conflict-induced migration in Sudan, focusing on the food security and access to healthcare of displaced households. Triggered by the civil conflict that started in April 2023, the recent widespread displacement of households has intensified vulnerabilities across the country. Using three datasets—the pre conflict 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey and two surveys conducted during the conflict, the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey—the research examines the impacts on household food security and healthcare access of migration driven by conflict. The study employs inverse probability weighting to estimate the causal impacts of migration, leveraging data from over 12,000 households. The key impact indicators at the household level were the Food Insecurity Experience Scale score and, as a measure of healthcare access, any incidence of illness in the household. Analysis shows that migration induced by conflict exacerbates food insecurity, with over 90 percent of rural households and nearly 80 percent of urban households reporting moderate to severe food insecurity. Rural households face additional challenges as displacement disrupts agricultural livelihoods and access to markets. Migration also worsens healthcare access, particularly in rural areas where displaced households experience a higher likelihood of illness. For urban households, migration fails to alleviate their healthcare challenges due to the collapse of urban healthcare systems. The study calls for urgent policy interventions, including targeted food aid and mobile healthcare services. Restoring healthcare infrastructure, expanding social protection mechanisms, and fostering peacebuilding efforts are critical to mitigating future displacement and supporting socioeconomic recovery. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and humanitarian actors to address the immediate and long-term needs of displaced populations in Sudan.

Man vs. machine: Experimental evidence on the quality and perceptions of AI-generated research content

Academic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience. Academic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience.

Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions

Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program's potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty.

How agri-food value chain employment and compensation evolve with structural transformation

The traditional structural transformation narrative emphasizes inter-sectoral labor reallocation out of agriculture, ignoring whether workers exit agri-food value chains or merely migrate within them, from primary agricultural production to downstream food industries. We introduce a method to decompose multiregional input-output table data into industry-and-country-specific annual labor value added estimates by final consumer market segment – domestic food at home, domestic food away from home, or exports – and match with industry-specific employment data to estimate average worker compensation. Using data covering most of the global economy, 1993-2021, we report ten stylized facts that sharpen the traditional narrative about labor reallocation amid structural transformation. As incomes grow, labor exits primary production for downstream agri-food value chain segments that maintain a steady economywide employment share while offering jobs that pay better than farm work. Women disproportionately move from primary production to downstream, consumer-facing retail and food service, while men migrate to better-paying midstream jobs, increasing gender pay inequality within the value chain. Employment shifts are strongly associated with changes in national per capita income, but not with agricultural total factor productivity growth.

Do public works investments in watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation improve nutrition and resilience? Evidence from bureau for humanitarian assistance interventions in support of Ethiopia’s productive safety net program

Between 2017 and 2021, the Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) of the United States Agency for International Development supported public works in the areas of watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation under Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). The investments aimed to improve food security and nutrition and to increase the resilience capacities of households through improved natural resource systems and asset development. However, there is little evidence about how these water-related investments supported household food security, nutritional outcomes, and resilience. This study used a mixed-methods approach to fill some of these knowledge gaps. Econometric results show that households in BHA intervention areas had smaller food gaps, and this association is statistically significant. Similarly, households that adopted small-scale irrigation and water harvesting techniques on their own plots show significantly better nutritional outcomes than those that did not. The results further suggest that in general the households in BHA areas are more resilient than those in non-BHA woredas. However, higher resilience capacities are associated with agricultural water management on own plots rather than with public works in communal lands. Thus, if household security, nutrition and resilience are key goals of program interventions, then programs need to grow intentionality in developing assets, and particularly irrigation.

Real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth: An empirical analysis for Ethiopia

In both developing and developed economies, academic and policy discussions have consistently emphasized that achieving stable economic growth and maintaining internal and external balance require an exchange rate aligned with its long-term equilibrium value. This paper examines the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on Ethiopia's economic growth from 1980 to 2022. The study begins by estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach to calculate the misalignments. It then analyzes the effects of these misalignments on economic growth using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Hansen's (2000) threshold regression model. The VAR and Impulse Response Function (IRF) analyses reveal that real exchange rate misalignments have an immediate positive impact on economic growth, which diminishes between the eighth and sixteenth years and stabilizes as a permanent long-term effect. The threshold regression results indicate that undervaluation of the Ethiopian Birr enhances economic growth up to a 13.95% deviation from the equilibrium real exchange rate, while overvaluation supports growth up to a 7.15% threshold. Beyond these limits, misalignments hinder growth. The study underscores the importance of avoiding excessive deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate to sustain economic growth. Furthermore, it highlights the need for consistent macroeconomic policies to minimize the gap between the actual and equilibrium real exchange rates. These findings emphasize the critical role of exchange rate policy in promoting sustainable economic development in Ethiopia.

Key stakeholders, platforms, and networks in Bangladesh’s food systems transformation process, 2022–2024

In 2022, the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation (SHiFT) conducted a stakeholder identification and analysis activity to develop its strategy for stakeholder engagement. As part of SHiFT’s Work Package 5, Catalyzing Food Systems Transformation, this analysis was used to prepare a stakeholder engagement strategy for Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Viet Nam, SHiFT’s three countries of work. The stakeholder identification and mapping, as well as a report on the country’s food system transformation process and issues, constitute a database that enables rapid selection of potential stakeholders for engagement, capacity sharing, and collaboration, among other purposes. The stakeholder identification process is repeated, typically on a quarterly basis, to update the database.
This summary report is based on information first collected in 2022 and updated as of December 2024. Building understanding, engagement, and capacity with diverse food system stakeholders will help to foster collaboration and coordination across varied perspectives, and to drive transformative actions across the food system for positive outcomes on the environment, food security and nutrition, and livelihoods and inclusion.
SHiFT’s approach is to engage with and provide technical support to relevant stakeholders, networks, and platforms whose objectives are aligned with the Initiative’s goals. This approach aims to contribute to local and national food systems transformation for sustainable healthy diets, rather than facilitating the formation of new networks or platforms that would require more time to build engagement and capacity, and might not be sustainable. The Initiative’s efforts are also meant to avoid overlapping with those of the country’s government and other development partners. Instead, SHiFT aims to create synergies through coordinated actions to achieve national food systems transformation and sustainable healthy diets, as well as broader national goals on food systems.

Prioritizing agri-food system investments under climatic and world price risks

With a population exceeding 120 million, Ethiopia is home to 77 million people who directly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods (World Bank, 2024a). The country registered robust agricultural growth of about 5% on average for a decade since 2013 (NBE, 2023). The Ethiopian government has been encouraged to target its development interventions to sustain and accelerate the growth and transformation of the economy (IFAD, 2023; Aragie & Balié, 2019). However, the pattern of support and the composition of growth are critical factors influencing changes in poverty, employment, and diet quality (Christiaensen & Martin, 2018; Pham & Riedel, 2019). Assessing the linkages between economic growth and poverty, employment, and diet quality is a topic of importance to both country policymakers and their development partners. Few studies, including Fan and Zhang (2008), Aragie, et al (2022), Benfica, et al. (2019) and Pauw and Thurlow (2015), have so far assessed and ranked various on-farm and off-farm interventions in relation to their impacts on selected outcome indicators and suggested to policy makers the most cost-effective ways of allocating scarce public resources for maximum impact.

Income, employment, transfers, and household welfare dynamics before and during the conflict in Sudan

This study examines the impact in Sudan of conflict on employment and incomes and the effect of remittances and assistance received by a household on its food insecurity and food consumption. The analyses use data from the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS), the 2023 Sudan Rural Household Survey (SRHS), and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey (SUHS). Conflict is found to significantly increase the likelihood of employment and income loss, particularly among female-headed and displaced households. Receipt of remittances does not have a significant effect on the food security or food consumption of a household. In contrast, whether a household receives assistance is associated with higher food insecurity and lower food consumption, likely reflecting the targeting of assistance programs toward vulnerable households. However, due to the cross sectional nature of the data, causal relationships cannot be established. The results highlight the need for targeted interventions to support the food security and welfare of households affected by the current conflict in Sudan, particularly through efforts to stabilize employment and incomes.

Social assistance and adaptation to flooding in Bangladesh

As climate change exacerbates weather shocks, there is growing interest in understanding whether social assistance programs can support coping among poor rural households and whether program effects vary by gender. We assess whether a social assistance program – the Transfer Modality Research Initiative (TMRI) –influenced the effects of prior monsoon flooding on household consumption and adult diets in southern Bangladesh. TMRI provided cash or food transfers, with or without nutrition behavior change communication, from 2012-2014. Within the study sites and years, flooding was substantial but moderate. Our findings suggest that, without TMRI, a one-standard-deviation increase in lagged flooding led to households smoothing consumption by drawing down savings and reducing diet quality among both men and women. In contrast, among TMRI treatment households, lagged flooding did not reduce savings, and both men’s and women’s diet quality improved. Effects on diet quality appeared largely driven by legumes and by fruits and vegetables, and improvements appeared strongest among households receiving both transfers and behavior change communication. Results indicate that social assistance can help households cope with effects of moderate flooding in southern Bangladesh, protecting household savings and improving both men’s and women’s diets.

Cointegration analysis of sesame prices in Ethiopian commodity exchange warehouses

This study examines the cointegration of sesame market prices in eight Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) warehouses and its implications for improving the functioning of sesame markets. We analyzed 489 weekly market price data points for each of the eight ECX warehouses, covering the period from end of 2014 to mid-2024. We estimate the Multivariate Vector Error Correction Model (ECM) to analyze short- and long-term spatial price adjustments across warehouses. Of the eight warehouses, six showed significant spatial integration. The VECM results showed effective price transmission and strong short- and longterm market relationships. Short-term dynamics particularly revealed complex interactions. These findings highlight the varying impacts of price fluctuations between warehouses and the need to understand these interactions for better strategic decision making, resource allocation, and pricing strategy refinement. Furthermore, accelerating the speed of price pass through is vital to improve the livelihoods of sesame farmers in Ethiopia.

The cluster panacea? An evaluation of three interventions in shrimp value chains in Bangladesh

Clustering farming has often been proposed as an effective way to overcome the significant transactions costs faced by downstream buyers in interacting and negotiating with many small farmers, while making it easier for extension workers and governments to dispense advice, provide upstream services and inputs. In this study, we evaluate the impact of a set of three initiatives in Bangladesh, implemented by a government department, a private sector processing firm and a not-for-profit industrial advocacy body, all involving clustering contiguous shrimp farm ponds to enable group certification necessary for global market access. We implement a canonical difference-in-differences model using two rounds of surveys of a sample of over 1,222 farmers in 2023 and 2024 to assess the impacts on pond management practices, net profits and any unintended impacts on food security and dietary diversity. Our results suggest that the cluster interventions had impressive impacts on adoption of better farm management practices. However, these do not appear to translate into significant gains in net profits, perhaps because these interventions are still relatively new. Further, it appears that cluster farmers pay a penalty on account of a shift to more intensive cultivation, represented by a loss in species diversity and lower incomes from fish and vegetables. We find that there are no significant spillover effects as yet on shrimp farmers in the same village as the clusters. This study reflects critically on the efficacy of clustering that is presumed to enhance access to global markets.

Is it a myth? Market power among intermediaries in agri-food value chains

A common narrative about agri-food value chains (AVCs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is that smallholders are paid substantially less for their agricultural products relative to the prices consumers pay for them. Some of that difference can be attributed to market channels—even in competitive and efficient agricultural markets, there are costs involved as agricultural products move from producers to consumers, including expenses for transportation, collection and aggregation, grading, processing, distribution, packaging, and retailing.

Advancing climate-smart financial solutions for smallholder farmers: Lessons from the CGIAR Climate Resilience Initiative

Smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries face climate-related risks that increase their income volatility and compromise their well-being. The CGIAR Initiative on Climate Resilience (ClimBeR) has developed and implemented a suite of innovative instruments aimed at transforming the climate adaptation capacity of smallholder farmers. This brief examines the potential of these bundled financial solutions in enhancing smallholder farmers' resilience to climate risks and documents ClimBeR's experience in implementing and scaling these instruments.

Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan

This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan.

Understanding migration within countries: A global perspective

The majority of migrants remain within their own borders. While 281 million people have migrated in another country in 2020, the number of internal migrants is estimated to stand at around 763 million (UN DESA, 2016; IOM, 2021). At the global level, the existing literature has mainly focused on understanding the drivers of international migration (Karemera et al., 2000; Mayda, 2010; Kim and Cohen, 2010). Understanding the dynamics of internal migration is key for conjecturing future prospects in terms of poverty, food insecurity, urbanization, within-country inequalities and geopolitical instability.

IFPRI Nexus SAMs: Annual Release Note 2024

The Nexus Project is pleased to provide an update on the Nexus Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed and released by IFPRI in collaboration with national statistical agencies and research institutions in 2024. This Annual Release Note provides a brief overview of SAMs and the Nexus Project. It serves as a useful one-stop shop for obtaining links to the latest versions of all Nexus SAMs.
For more information or questions, please email IFPRI-Nexus@cgiar.or

Impact of risk-contingent credit and traditional credit on smallholders’ agricultural investment and productivity: Experimental evidence from Kenya

We use a multiyear, multi-arm randomized controlled trial implemented among 1,053 smallholders in Kenya to evaluate ex-ante investment and ex-post productivity and welfare benefits of two competing lending models: risk-contingent credit (RCC)—which embeds crop insurance with a loan product—and traditional credit (TC). We rely on local average treatment effects to demonstrate the effects of these alternative credit products on borrowers but report the intention-to-treat effects for their broader policy significance. Uptake of RCC increased treated households’ farm investments—specifically, adoption of chemical fertilizers—by up to 14 percent along the extensive margins and by more than 100 percent along the intensive margins, while TC’s effects were less in both magnitude and statistical significance. Neither type of credit product had a significant effect on the overall area cultivated under maize, hence enhancing agricultural intensification but not extensification. Ex-post, neither type of credit product had a strong direct effect on households’ productivity. We conclude that access to credit has potential to increase investment and productivity among smallholders, although improved productivity needs better measurement and extended intervention to be realized. To scale the potential effects of credit, derisking access to credit should be considered to expand access to credit.

Supporting Sudan’s entrepreneurs in crisis: Policy insights from micro, small, and medium enterprises

The current conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has had a profound impact on the nation’s micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSME). Such enterprises are a vital part of the country’s economy and important to the food security of many Sudanese households. All MSMEs, including those in the agrifood sector, have faced severe disruptions due to the instability, rising inflation, and supply chain breakdowns brought on by the conflict. These challenges have destabilized MSMEs, affecting their financial viability, operations, and capacity to support local food security and provide employment. Agrifood MSMEs, in particular, serve as critical intermediaries between large firms and smallholders, supporting local economies and national food systems.2 The conflict has disrupted every aspect of agrifood value chains in Sudan, from input supplies and production to market accessibility. Agrifood entrepreneurs—especially women—have borne some of the heaviest impacts. Female entrepreneurs already face significant gender-based barriers in operating successful businesses, such as more limited access to finance, restrictive social norms, and mobility constraints. In this period of conflict, they now confront even greater
challenges.

Postharvest packaging and marketing innovation adoption in Nigeria: The case of plastic crate

Postharvest loss of horticultural crops is very high in most developing countries, and most of the loss occurs during production, harvesting, and transporting stages. Postharvest technologies (PHTs) are therefore important to reducing food loss and wastage and critical to both national and international food security agendas. This report provides the status quo of postharvest innovation adoption in Nigeria by taking the case of horticultural growers’ adoption of postharvest packaging and transportation innovation such as returnable plastic crates. Primary data were collected from 1704 farmers using a multistage random sampling technique. Our findings reveal low adoption of PHT, with only 8% of rainfed and 14% of irrigation farmers utilizing PHT for packaging and transporting perishable agricultural products. Growers who adopted PHT received a market price that was twice as high as those who did not, encouraging sustained adoption of PHT by growers. The results prove that the high costs and limited availability in rural areas, rather than awareness gap, discourage farmers from using PHT. The research suggests interventions to address these challenges by utilizing flexible distribution strategies, such as engaging small and micro enterprises to offer rental PHT services in rural areas.

What’s holding back private sector agricultural insurance?

Much of the recent literature on agricultural insurance focuses on ways to increase farmers’ demand for insurance, but this paper revisits the supply side of the insurance market. To better understand the conditions under which private insurance has been successful or failed the paper draws on the available empirical and theoretical literature, on case studies, and interviews with selected insurers. While there are many examples of innovative solutions to some of the product design, marketing and delivery challenges facing agricultural insurance, our review suggests that private unsubsidized insurance can only play a limited role in terms of the overall risk management needs of agriculture. Fundamentally, agricultural insurance can only address certain types of risks, and these are often not the most important from the farmers’ perspective. For most farmers insurance is best seen as part of a broader risk management approach, and its relevance for commercial farmers linked to value chains can be quite different from that for more subsistence-oriented smallholders. Commercial farmers generally have the most options for managing risk and may benefit most from specific types of indemnity or index-based products to protect specific agricultural investments and there are many examples of insurers meeting this need on an affordable and unsubsidized basis. On the other hand, subsistence-oriented farmers, especially poor and vulnerable ones, need insurance that can help protect their household income and consumption from negative shocks. This kind of insurance is expensive and difficult to supply without subsidies and requires strong public sector support. Even if targeted in this way, private unsubsidized insurance will only thrive given a supporting policy environment and, to keep costs down and improve the relevance and delivery of its products, insurers need to take full advantage of new and emerging digital and remote sensing innovations, and where possible, partner with intermediaries who can bundle their insurance with credit, farm inputs and other services.

Characteristics of community seed schemes for grains and legumes: Insights from northern Nigeria

CONTEXT: Despite the significant roles that intermediary seed systems play in the supply of quality seeds in developing countries, including Africa south of the Sahara, the knowledge gap remains generally substantial regarding the general characteristics and seed quality control performance of intermediary seed systems such as community seed schemes (CSS), which still operate predominantly outside the formal seed systems.

OBJECTIVE: We aim to narrow the knowledge gap on seed production practices implemented by CSS, their economic and technical characteristics, the extent of seed quality control achieved, and potential challenges CSS is facing.

METHODS: Using primary survey data of seed producers of key grains (maize, rice, and sorghum) and legumes (cowpea and soybean) from 380 CSS in Kano state in northern Nigeria, we qualitatively assess origins and drivers of their growth, extent of seed production, relations with upstream actors (breeder and foundation seed providers) and downstream actors (seed buyers), economic structures of their seed production, aspects of quality control measures they engage, and potential roles of external support, such as training on the implementation of these quality control measures.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We discovered that many of the interviewed CSS have emerged endogenously, taking up seed production to address the challenges in access to quality seeds in their locality. Their seed production has often grown into viable businesses that have provided potentially significant additions to their incomes. Oftentimes, these CSS implemented some seed quality control measures, including making closer visual checks of seeds, checking germination rates, and bagging/packing seeds, among others. However, fuller seed quality control may be significantly skill-intensive, and most CSS still do not implement many of the recommended measures under some of the intermediary quality assurance standards, such as Quality Declared Seed. Our qualitative assessment suggests that future support for CSS can focus on technical support to raise the ability to engage in broader categories of quality assurance activities in economically viable ways and to improve the awareness and knowledge of different varieties and access to foundation seeds.
SIGNIFICANCE: The quality assurance provided by existing CSS in Nigeria may be relatively limited, particularly in proper maintenance of the seed production field and the quality of original seeds that CSS intend to multiply. Providing external support through training and technical assistance can be an effective way to transform community seed schemes into critical providers of seed quality assurance in the intermediate seed system and to fill gaps in the formal seed system.

Food system financing vulnerability index

Food systems are integral to ensuring access to sustainable healthy diets for all, thereby supporting public health, livelihoods, and environmental sustainability. However, these systems are increasingly vulnerable to a range of shocks and stressors, from economic downturns and financial constraints to the impacts of cli mate change and pandemics. One of the most critical determinants of food system resilience is the ability to effectively manage financing vulnerabilities. Financing vulnerability refers to the susceptibility of food system components to performance degradation due to inadequate, inefficient, or uneven allocation of financial re sources. Addressing this issue is paramount for enhancing the system’s capacity to withstand and recover from disruptions while maintaining functionality.

Evolution of food insecurity in Sudan during the ongoing conflict

Sudan's food security landscape has been dramatically impacted by the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which began in April 2023. The conflict has exacerbated an already precarious situation for the country, characterized by macroeconomic instability, climate shocks, and persistent discord and tension. This policy note analyzes the evolution of food insecurity in Sudan during the conflict, drawing from analysis of four nationwide surveys conducted before and during the conflict, namely the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS),1 the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey,2 the 2024 Sudan Urban Survey,3 and the recently completed 2024 Rural Household Survey. The findings highlight significant deterioration in food security across rural and urban areas of Sudan. Based on insights from these surveys, policy recommendations are offered to address food insecurity in the context of the conflict in Sudan. Before the outbreak of the conflict in 2023, Sudan was already facing significant food insecurity challenges. The 2022 SLMPS, a nationwide survey conducted in person, revealed that approximately 49 percent of Sudanese households were food secure. Factors such as high inflation, climate-related shocks, and underinvestment in agriculture have led to many households facing problems accessing sufficient healthy food, adversely affecting their food consumption. The reliance of Sudan on imports for a significant share of food consumption, coupled with a devaluating Sudanese Pound and rising inflation, strained household purchasing power, further limiting access to essential foodstuffs. Food insecurity was uneven across the country. Rural areas, where consumption of own agricultural production is essential for household food security, had higher food insecurity than urban areas. Some regions were particularly vulnerable to food insecurity, including the Darfur and Kordofan regions and Blue Nile states. Localized conflicts in these areas disrupted agricultural activities and displaced communities even before broader-scale fighting between SAF and RSF began.

External and internal migration propensity index (MPI) for Honduras: Out-of-sample validation

The e-MPI and the i-MPI are tools to objectively estimate the probability that individuals from a given household will, respectively, migrate abroad or migrate domestically in the near future. We use new longitudinal data to test their effectiveness fully out of sample. We find good predictive power of each of these indices in terms of the respective type of migration they attempt to anticipate. Moreover, they perform well against alternative measures, work reasonably well for both rural and urban areas and in departments not included in the original calibration data, and appear to capture distinct aspects around households’ decisions to migrate domestically and abroad. Overall, the MPI seems to be an important addition to policymakers’ toolkit.

Rainy day funds? How men and women adapt to heavy rainfall shocks and the role of cash transfers in Mali

Weather shocks can affect men and women differently, due in part to differences in their adaptive capacities. We merge weather data with survey data from a randomized control trial of a cash transfer program in Mali to describe how men and women cope with weather shocks and the role of cash transfer programs in supporting adaptive responses. We find that heavy rainfall reduces household’s consumption but that the cash transfer program mitigates these impacts, primarily by allowing households to draw down both men’s and women’s savings, increasing the value of livestock and farming assets held jointly by men and women, and facilitating a reallocation of men’s and women’s labor to livestock production and women’s labor to domestic work.

Rethinking the measurement of resilience for food and nutrition security

This paper presents a novel framework for assessing resilience in food systems, focusing on three dynamic metrics: return time, magnitude of deviation, and recovery rate. Traditional resilience measures have often relied on static and composite indicators, creating gaps in understanding the complex responses of food systems to shocks. This framework addresses these gaps, providing a more nuanced assessment of resilience in agrifood sectors. It highlights how integrating dynamic metrics enables policymakers to design tailored, sector-specific interventions that enhance resilience. Recognizing the data intensity required for these metrics, the paper indicates how emerging satellite imagery and advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) can make data collection both high-frequency and location-specific, at a fraction of the cost of traditional methods. These technologies facilitate a scalable approach to resilience measurement, enhancing the accuracy, timeliness, and accessibility of resilience data. The paper concludes with recommendations for refining resilience tools and adapting policy frameworks to better respond to the increasing challenges faced by food systems across the world.

Supply- and demand-side factors affecting maize and cowpea varietal turnover and quality seed use: Mixed-method evidence from northern Nigeria

This study provides an integrated assessment of the seed system for maize and cowpea, two of the most important crops in Nigeria. We analyze the various factors influencing seed supply and demand and present different measures of capacity and incentive of multiple actors along the seed value chain. We also present metrics on adoption of improved varieties and quality seed use, given the complexity of these concepts and persistent challenges in measuring them in a survey context. At the national level, the 2015 to 2018 Living Standards Measurement Survey data show that the adoption rate of improved varieties was 16 percent of maize area and 6 percent of cowpea area, with 9 percent of maize farmers and 3 percent of cowpea farmers reporting certified seed use of improved varieties. Data from household surveys conducted in 2022 show that in Bauchi and Kaduna—states with relatively high maize and cowpea production levels—the adoption rate of quality seeds of improved varieties was 10 percent of cowpea land area and 25 percent of maize land area. In addition, the improved varieties in the cowpea and maize plots were old; the area-weighted varietal age in cowpea farms was 12 years and in maize farms, 13 years. The most popular cowpea variety was Kananado (likely matching released variety SAMPEA 9 or SAMPEA 11, released in 2005 and 2009, respectively), and the most popular maize variety was SAMMAZ 15, released in 2008. Newer varieties have not caught up in popularity.

Different stages of the seed value chain face major bottlenecks. Two major themes emerged as barriers and drivers of adoption of newer improved varieties and quality seed: (1) Seed supplies were limited, especially breeder and foundation seeds, implying that Nigeria’s seed system needs to increase coordination, funding, and capacity for early-generation seed production and management; and (2) new varieties were not promoted to farmers, who therefore lacked exposure to the seeds, implying that both public and private sectors need to invest more in the promotion of these varieties and increase exposure and testing among farmers. There is also a need to look at the breeding and offerings of newer improved varieties. Some newer varieties do not consistently and comprehensively outperform older bred varieties in field trials and farm demonstrations; some older bred varieties remain attractive and popular to farmers.

Beyond seeds, several contextual factors disabled farmers’ and seed actors’ capacity and incentive to expand production and adopt improved varieties. Security issues; poor soil conditions; and high fertilizer, transportation, irrigation, and diesel costs were some of the major disablers in the seed system that must be addressed.

The changing demographics in food systems and implications for future youth engagement in Rwanda

Food systems are critically important for food security and employment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Moreover, expansion of nonfarm components of food systems (FS) reinforces efforts to transition out of agriculture. FS, particularly off-farm segments of food value chains, must grow rapidly to guarantee food and nutrition security for growing populations and to provide the quantity and variety of food demanded as a result of increases in urbanization and income, as well as to accommodate accompanying technological and other changes. The impact, inevitability, and amenability to policy interventions of these factors and the extent of FS transformation needed differs across countries. Future FS also face several emerging challenges. Employment and job creation are among the areas that are significantly affected by FS transformation. Demographic changes that accompany expanding FS employment are also critical for gender equity and youth inclusion. The extent, speed, and complementarity of the FS transformation and increased employment varies across countries. However, there is currently no system in place to monitor the extent of FS transformation or its interactions with other aspects of the economy, such as employment. This study of Rwanda uses secondary data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) (2023), World Bank (2023), and Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey (EICV) (2023) to investigate demographic trends in overall FS employment and who is and is not engaging in FS; and to document sectoral and overall economic growth, population and demographic changes, and urbanization trends—all which influence and are influenced by FS growth. The study contributes to the literature by testing the predicted patterns of employment growth and inclusiveness in agrifood systems, and by pointing to the nodes of employment in FS where gender- and age-based inequities exist, thereby facilitating policymaking and interventions to ameliorate the problems. In addition, tracking performance in employment-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Rwanda contributes to our understanding of the progress made in SSA toward inclusiveness, efficiency, and poverty reduction, particularly progress that benefits women and the youth. Rwanda’s economy grew remarkably during the two decades covered in the study (2001–2022). Agriculture contributed significantly to gross domestic product (GDP) as well as to overall and FS employment. Per capita income more than doubled, although it still is about half the average GDP per capita of SSA. The population, threequarters of whom are under 35 years of age, increased by 70% during the period. There have been great strides in education, particularly for girls and women. However, urbanization has been slow, and half of the country’s urban residents live in the capital city. The unemployment rate in Rwanda has been twice the SSA average and has generally been increasing. More than half of the workers are employed in agriculture, although this share declined considerably during the period. Farming contributes significantly to FS employment. However, the share of overall FS employment declined during the period, due to a decline in farming employment accompanied by stagnant employment in non-farm FS. Relative to men, women’s overall labor force participation rate is considerably lower and their unemployment rate higher. A larger share of women work in low-skill jobs and this gap increased during the period; a relatively larger share of women are employed in FS, but a smaller share work in the nonfarm component of FS and this gender gap widened. Similarly, relative to mature adults, youth are less advantaged. The labor force participation rate of youth is considerably lower, and the rate of unemployment is higher and increasing relatively faster among youth. However, differences in FS employment among youth and mature adults were considerably lower and shown no clear trend. Findings of this study point to several short- and long-run policy implications.

Soft-skills training, locus of control, and labor market outcomes of youth: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Kenya

Africa has the youngest population in the world, but African economies are not creating enough high-productivity jobs, and rates of youth unemployment thus remain a major challenge in the region. Several supply- and demand-side factors may explain these trends, including skill gaps. While traditional technical and vocational education and training (TVET) centers address important gaps in hard (technical) skills, soft-skills trainings have not yet received sufficient attention in the African context. We evaluate the overall and heterogenous impact of a gender-sensitive soft-skills training that aimed to address youths’ unique interests, preferences, and labor market constraints in Kenya. We also examine whether the presence (or absence) of complementary noncognitive skills, such as locus-of-control skills, moderates the impact of the soft-skills training. We use a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a soft-skills training to support young men and women in making the transition from school to work in Kenya. Our evaluation combines baseline, midline, and endline data to understand the dynamics of labor market transitions for youth. We find that although the soft-skills training prepared youth for the labor market by improving their willingness, expectations, and preparedness for jobs, the impact of the soft-skills training on ultimate labor market outcomes varies across individuals with varying psychological traits. The training improved labor market outcomes for those with internal locus of control but not for individuals who lack these attributes. One standard deviation increase in (internal) locus of control is associated with a 5 percentage-point increase in the impact of the soft-skills training on probability of participation in income-earning activities. We also find that returns to locus of control and the soft-skills training are higher for females than males.

Financial inclusion, agricultural inputs use, and household food security evidence from Nigeria

This paper examines the effects of financial inclusion on adoption and intensity of use of agricultural inputs and household welfare indicators using data from the nationally representative Nigerian LSMS wave-3 (2015/2016) survey. For this, we constructed a financial inclusion index from four formal financial services access indicators (bank account, access to credit, insurance coverage, and digital transaction) using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). We used Cragg’s two-step hurdle, instrumental variables for binary response variables, and a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) models in the econometric analysis. Results show that households with access to formal financial services are more likely to adopt agricultural inputs and to apply these more intensively. These same households are less likely to experience severe food insecurity and are more likely to consume diverse food items. We also find that these effects are less for female farmers regardless of formal financial inclusion, suggesting that they may bear more non-financial constraints than their male counterparts. The results suggest a need for targeted interventions to increase access to formal financial services of farm households and gender-responsive interventions to address the differential constraints women farmers face.

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Ethiopia

Key Messages
-Undernutrition has declined over time, but stunting still affects 40 percent of rural children and 25 percent of urban children.
-Micronutrient deficiencies—especially deficiencies in folate, zinc and Vitamin D—are a critical concern, particularly for urban women and girls.
-Dietary quality is low in both rural and urban areas: while urban diets are moderately more diverse than rural ones, rising consumption of unhealthy foods is more of a concern than in rural areas at this time.
-The cost of consuming a healthy diet in Ethiopia increased from US $2.83 to $3.72 from 2017—2022, and over half of the population is currently unable to afford a healthy diet.
-Concurrent conflict and climate shocks are causing acute nutritional needs in some regions. Humanitarian food aid is key to reducing food insecurity and should be provided to households without access to land who rely on income for food purchases,
such as those in urban areas.
-Overweight and obesity are still uncommon among young children but are increasing rapidly among urban women. In urban areas, 20 percent of women are overweight, compared to 4 percent in rural areas. The rise in urban overweight is driven by lifestyle
changes associated with urbanization and unhealthy food environments, which are associated with poor quality diets and reduced physical activity.
-Overnutrition and diet-related noncommunicable diseases are especially prevalent in Addis Ababa.
-Food safety is a challenge, and evidence is lacking on how to improve vendor safety knowledge and practices to protect consumer health.
-National social protection programs often fail to reach the urban poor and lack explicit nutrition interventions in urban areas.
-There is a need to design and test urban nutrition interventions that address both over and undernutrition (such as double-duty actions) in urban populations.

The socioeconomic impact of armed conflict on Sudanese urban households: Evidence from a National Urban Household Survey

Eighteen months of war have deeply affected urban households in Sudan: 31 percent have been displaced, full-time employment has plummeted by half, over 70 percent of the urban households in Sudan had all or some of school-aged kids stop attending school, and only one out of seven urban households can access full health services—concluded a new joint study from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), launched today.

"The Socioeconomic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households" study provides a comprehensive assessment of how the ongoing conflict affects urban households in Sudan. With two-thirds of the fighting concentrated in cities of over 100,000 people, understanding impacts of the war on urban livelihoods is crucial for addressing both immediate economic challenges and long-term development obstacles. The study is based on analyses of a comprehensive survey of urban households across the country that both organizations conducted between May 2024 and July 2024, including 3,000 households.

Medium-scale livestock farms in Asia’s rapidly transforming food systems

Academic and policy debates on agriculture emphasize a bimodal typology of ‘small-scale’ and ‘large-scale’ farms. In this article, we draw attention to the role and distinct characteristics of medium-scale monogastric livestock farms in the Global South, drawing on an empirically grounded typology of scale that incorporates three linked components: (1) Social and economic organization of production; (2) Technological choice and environmental impacts, and; (3) Food system linkages and spillovers. We review national livestock sector policy documents from three Asian countries - Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Vietnam - with reference to the typology, and compare assumptions embedded in the policies with the characteristics of farm scale revealed by the typology. Our analysis indicates that current policy goals are not well aligned with the characteristics of medium-scale livestock farming in the region. This disconnect presents a missed opportunity to enhance the livestock sector’s contributions to rural economies, nutrition security, food safety, and environmental performance. We conclude with examples of how policies could maintain and enhance medium-scale monogastriclivestock farms’ contributions to sustainable intensification, public health, and livelihoods.

Gendered drivers of varietal turnover: A qualitative assessment for improved teff and wheat varieties in Ethiopia

Limited adoption of agricultural technologies such as improved crop varieties has been a challenge for increasing crop productivity in low-income countries. We study drivers of varietal turnover by conducting gender-disaggregated focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews with teff and wheat farmers, and key informant interviews with public and private seed actors, in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. We find that attributes specific not only to production and sales, but also to processing and consumption (such as color, texture, moisture, and taste) are key drivers for varietal uptake among both men and women farmers. In relative terms, processing and consumption attributes are more important to women than men farmers. Gender and social status are usually linked to access to resources (such as inputs or information about newly released varieties) that could become an important driver of uptake. Women’s and men’s prior experiences with improved varieties also influence adoption. For instance, farmers that experience crop losses when using new varieties during a drought reportedly become more risk averse in future decisions to adopt new improved varieties. Overall, the findings imply the need to adopt seed development and marketing strategies that pay close attention to the preferences of both producers and consumers, such as considering the importance of consumption attributes (e.g., not altering local recipes) and encouraging farmers to first experiment with new varieties on parts of their plots before adopting at scale or providing a risk management tool (e.g., insurance) that can protect farmers from potential risks associated with new technologies.

Assessing the role of food MSMEs in providing employment for women and youth in Ethiopia

This paper analyzes the employment characteristics of food micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), using survey data collected from 1,686 food vendors in Addis Ababa and Butajira, Ethiopia. The data suggest that 74 percent of the enterprises were formal or had a tax identification number. The average number of workers across enterprises was 2.3, which varies between 1.2 as in the case of street sellers and 5.3 as in the case of restaurants. Among enterprises with an additional worker besides the owner, only about 32 percent of them had part-time workers. The share of youth in part-time and full-time employment was 43 percent and 28 percent, respectively. Adults especially women constituted the majority of both full-time and part-time workers. More than 53 percent of the enterprises were owned and operated by women, but the significant majority of them were one-person enterprises, suggesting that women-owned enterprises are less likely to create additional jobs. In fact, results from the logistic regressions suggest that the odds of women-owned enterprises employing anyone were between 0.53 to 0.62 times the odds of men-owned enterprises. Only 17 percent of the enterprises had outstanding loans at the time of the survey. However, the relationship between loan uptake status and the number of workers was not strong. Results also indicate that the number of workers was positively and significantly associated with the size of enterprise revenue but the relationship with profitability was not strong, possibly because the size of profits per worker was quite low. To put this in perspective, the size of profits per worker (for example, for street sellers who are mostly self-employed and rarely take their wages into account during cost calculations) was less than the cost of a healthy diet. Overall, while the food MSMEs in the study sites may have the potential to deliver food at lower cost and contribute to gender and social inclusion through self-employment, the scope of food MSMEs, especially those run by women, to generate additional employment appears to be limited.

Impact evaluation of the economic inclusion programme in Kenya: Baseline report for cohort 2

Graduation and economic inclusion programs complement cash or food transfers with multisectoral investments in asset building, income generation, skill training, and access to financial services and markets to strengthen resilience and opportunity for households who are poor (Andrews et al., 2021). Compared to classic social assistance programs that offer regular cash or food transfers to ensure minimum consumption levels, these programs aim to enable beneficiaries to invest in assets and skills that can make them more productive. Following promising results from initial studies on multiple economic Photo Credit: Peter Lowe / CIMMYT and social outcomes (e.g., Banerjee et al., 2015; Bandiera et al., 2017; Banerjee et al., 2021), these graduation and economic inclusion programs are increasingly being taken up by governments to complement their national social assistance programs. In 2019 the Government of Kenya’s (GoK) State Department of Social Protection and Senior Citizen Affairs, Directorate of Social Development, initiated the Kenya Social and Economic Inclusion Programme (KSEIP). The KSEIP is designed to complement and build on the flagship National Safety Net Programme (NSNP) and target those being served by it, moving beyond cash transfers to an integrated Social Protection system to enhance social and economic inclusion services and shock-responsive safety nets for poor and vulnerable households. The KSEIP is expected to contribute towards Kenya’s Vision 2030 and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals.

Challenges and opportunities in Nigeria’s home-grown school feeding program: Toward a more efficient and sustainable model

This paper examines Nigeria’s Home-Grown School Feeding Program (HGSFP), an initiative that enhances traditional school feeding by supporting local agriculture. Operating across federal, state, and school levels, the HGSFP sources meals from local smallholder farmers, aiming to stimulate rural economies and improve food security. The program creates demand for locally grown food, encouraging farmers to increase productivity and adopt sustainable practices while providing them with stable income.

The HGSFP has successfully expanded its impact beyond students to benefit farmers, communities, and local businesses; despite these achievements, the program still faces challenges including funding constraints, logistical issues, and monitoring difficulties. By analyzing successful implementations in other countries that are characterized by strong government support, well-developed supply chains, and active community participation, the paper offers insights for improvement. The discussion concludes with evidence-based recommendations for policymakers and program administrators. These suggestions aim to enhance the HGSFP’s effectiveness, efficiency, and long-term sustainability, ultimately contributing to Nigeria’s broader agricultural and economic development goals.

Targeting social assistance in fragile settings: An experiment on community-based targeting

Targeting is an important but challenging process in the design and delivery of social and humanitarian assistance programs. Community-based targeting (CBT) approaches are often preferred for their local information advantages, especially when data-driven methods are not feasible. However, how different variants of CBT approaches fare under various constraints and environments remains unclear. For example, it is not obvious whether agents involved in CBT maximize the number of beneficiaries or the intensity of transfers when given different levels of discretion or they face budget constraints. We implemented a clustered randomized control trial among community leaders in 180 villages in Ethiopia to evaluate how community leaders target and allocate resources when they face budget constraints and are in the presence (absence) of discretion. We find that under resource constraints, community leaders prefer to maximize the number of beneficiaries even at the expense of thinly spreading budgets (reducing average transfers to beneficiaries). Community leaders are keen to minimize exclusion errors even at the expense of increased inclusion errors, suggesting that community leaders may be sensitive to potential communal repercussions and hence prefer to accommodate beneficiaries who would otherwise be excluded based on survey-based measures and indicators of poverty. Consistent with this, we find that offering community leaders some level of discretion helps them reduce exclusion errors and include those most deprived or those affected by armed conflicts. Finally, we find that community leaders are more vulnerable to favoritism when real stakes (rather than hypothetical) are involved, budgets are relatively larger, and they lack discretion. We offer nuanced evidence about the implications of implementing CBT designs in the absence of incentives for community leaders to reveal how they use local information.

Irrigation schemes in Ethiopia’s Awash River Basin: An examination of physical, knowledge, and governance infrastructures

Using a representative sample of irrigation schemes, the study documents the physical, knowledge, and governance infrastructures of irrigation schemes in Ethiopia’s most intensively used river basin, the Awash. The findings show that about 20 percent of the equipped area of irrigation schemes in the basin is not being irrigated, while the number of actual beneficiaries on average exceeds the number of planned beneficiaries. The results also show significant knowledge gaps among irrigation scheme managers, extension agents, and leaders of water users’ associations (WUAs): 96 percent of them do not know the total water withdrawals or the irrigation water requirement per season. About 14 percent of the surveyed irrigation schemes have neither traditional water committees nor WUAs, and only 21 percent are organized in legally registered WUAs despite a substantial number of identified benefits of these organizations. Moreover, only 58 out of 489 irrigation schemes have women committee members. Many schemes lack a clear strategy for covering maintenance costs: almost 40 percent of schemes collect contributions from members only when the system fails, while 17 percent report no contributions for maintenance at all suggesting considerable risk of system deterioration and failure. The results challenge some of the assumptions about irrigation infrastructure in Ethiopia and confirm and quantify other assumptions in the literature.

How have foreign exchange market distortions and conflict affected agricultural production incentives in Myanmar?

Fluctuations in agricultural prices pose significant challenges for fragile and conflict-affected economies due to their critical role in ensuring food security. This study examines changes in agricultural prices at the export, wholesale, and farm level in the case of Myanmar, which experienced a surge in conflicts from 2021 onward, following a military coup. The major findings are as follows:
• Regarding macroeconomic impacts, the military government implemented a dual exchange rate system, maintaining a fixed exchange rate significantly below the market rate and effectively imposing an across-the-board export tax on all export commodities of approximately 24 percent between August 2022 and August 2024. This policy particularly affects rice, Myanmar’s main staple and a key export crop.
• The scarcity of foreign exchange due to this dual exchange rate system increased the costs of imported inputs. It is estimated that prices of inorganic fertilizers – farmers’ most important commercial input – saw an increase of 10 percent compared to the price in Thailand since the start of the dual exchange rate system.
• Regarding domestic trade effects, regions with the highest insecurity exhibited similar agricultural output prices but higher input costs, resulting in reduced farm profitability compared to more secure regions. However, the magnitude of these effects is relatively small, with estimated increases in input prices due to insecurity ranging from one to six percent. Insecure areas also show more often a lack of input availability.
• Farmers who reside in insecure areas reported between one and six percentage points higher lack of access to agricultural inputs – fertilizer, agrochemicals, mechanization, and seed - in their communities. The relatively small effects of insecurity on input and output markets suggest a degree of resilience in the private sector’s ability to maintain trade under conflict conditions.
• The biggest effect on input markets is seen in the case of agricultural labor. Depending on the measure used, farmers in the most insecure areas had a 7 to 15 percentage points higher likelihood of reporting lack of access to agricultural laborers compared to the most secure areas.
• The exchange rate policies are found to have been much more harmful for farmers’ incentives than the domestic trade effects, even for the most conflict-affected areas, indicating the importance of considering macroeconomic effects for agricultural incentives in Myanmar.
• Despite the significant disincentives brought about by conflict, the agricultural sector has shown surprising resilience over the recent conflict period, seemingly linked to advantageous international price developments for farmers: international rice prices increased by 27 percent while urea prices decreased by 52 percent between August 2022 and May 2024.
• While these international evolutions have partly mitigated the impact of the conflict on farmers’ profitability, the impacts of these price developments on consumers in Myanmar have, however, been severe. An analysis of rice retail prices in Myanmar over the last two and half years show that they have more than tripled and that the overall costs of the common diet more than doubled. A failure of nominal income to keep pace with this food price inflation led to an increase in poverty by 10 percent from the end of 2022 to the end of 2023.

Agrifood trade

Agrifood exports make up about one-third of Myanmar’s total exports, and their share of both total exports and as a ratio of total GDP has risen in recent years. Agrifood exports have the potential to generate higher income for farmers, traders, processors, and other stakeholders within agrifood value chains. Additionally, they can contribute to the country’s foreign exchange earnings, supporting the importation of manufactured products embedded with modern technology required for the transformation of the agrifood sector. This chapter analyzes the past performance of key agrifood exports and assesses their potential role in the transformation of Myanmar’s agrifood system and the overall economy.

2024 annual trends and outlook report: Advancing the climate and bioeconomy agenda in Africa for resilient and sustainable agrifood systems

The 2024 edition of the Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) explores the challenges posed by the climate crisis to agrifood systems and the opportunities offered by a transition to a bioeconomy to mitigate and adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. This ATOR seeks to support the ongoing development and the subsequent implementation of a new 10-year Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) strategy by the African Union through the renewed and updated post-Malabo CAADP agenda.

Farm commercialization: A transformation on hold or in reverse?

When food systems transform, farmers’ interactions with markets change dramatically. With changes from traditional to transitional to modern systems—as defined by Reardon and Minten (2021)— farmers move from mostly subsistence-oriented agriculture with few market interactions toward heavy reliance on spot markets for inputs, outputs, and services, and ultimately to contract farming. Such reliance on markets during these transformation processes has been shown to lead to significant improvements in farm performance and in agricultural households’ welfare.

However, in a number of low- and middle-income countries, there is often a lack of clarity regarding which stage of transformation farms have reached and how to expedite such transformations. There is limited understanding of agricultural markets and farm commercialization in Myanmar in particular because of a lack of nationally representative and updated data on the farm sector. Moreover, over the past decade, the country has undergone substantial changes in its economic and agricultural market policies, as well as major COVID-19 and military coup shocks. This has all had significant impacts on the farm commercialization situation. To understand farm commercialization and its evolution, then, we first need an overview of these policy changes and shocks.

Evaluation of the programme to reduce vulnerability in coastal fishing areas in Djibouti: Qualitative findings

We present findings from a qualitative study conducted as part of an impact assessment of the Programme to Reduce Vulnerability in Coastal Fishing Areas (PRAREV) , supported by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and implemented from 2013 to 2021. This study was designed to focus solely on the gender aspects of PRAREV, which overall aimed to support fishing communities and actors in the fishing sector in Djibouti, specifically those living in rural coastal areas affected by climate change, by reducing their vulnerability to the effects of climate change and promote co-management of marine resources. The program targeted those who are poor and who rely on fishing, particularly women involved in fish processing and marketing. The qualitative findings shared in this paper complement findings from an accompanying quantitative study, which found positive effects of the program on incomes, production, women’s influence on decisions, and food security, but not on resilience or nutritional status.

We used multiple qualitative methods, including semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with program staff and men and women leaders and members of fishing organizations to examine the following research questions focused on the gender component of the program: 1) How the program was delivered from multiple perspectives; 2) How the program strengthened the fishers’ and fishmonger associations; and 3) The benefits and costs of the program in the areas of climate change resilience, livelihoods, and changes in the fishing sector.

While PRAREV aimed to take a gender-sensitive approach, the gender strategy and its delivery could have been improved. PRAREV mainly reached women by intentionally including women fishing organizations so that they could benefit from access to collective resources, training, and knowledge. PRAREV trainings often were not communicated to women members of fishing organizations, which led to women’s relative exclusion compared to men members.

However, participants shared both positive and negative feedback on the PRAREV program. They generally agreed that when delivered, the trainings were well received and increased knowledge and awareness of climate change and knowledge of upgrading techniques in the fishing sector. The climate change trainings developed awareness about the drivers of climate change and taught best practices on the preservation of local marine resources. However, these trainings did not address adaptation to depleted fish populations in mangroves or reefs. Other trainings focused on value chain upgrading were well received and when delivered, increased relevant knowledge. However, their reach was limited, particularly among women fishing organization members.

Finally, PRAREV provided organizations key resources for value chain upgrading and integration in the fishing sector in a way that preserved the local marine environment (e.g., boats, knives, fishing wires, nets). While fishing organization members spoke positively of these resources, there were challenges in delivering them. They were delivered late in the project, often without training or a sustainability plan, or were often not delivered as promised, creating frustration and tension among group members. They were also often delivered in smaller quantities than originally communicated and as such, the recipient fishing organizations limited their use. Overall, group members felt there was limited transparency in delivering these resources.

Based on these findings, we share recommendations for PRAREV and similar programs. We suggest conducting formative research on the local fishing sector to identify how men and women want to participate and the key barriers they face in doing so. With respect to resource provision, programs should provide resources earlier and should deliver them with a sustainability plan that has community buy in. Implementers should aim to understand how groups could make use of high-value common property to enable transparency and sustainability. Trainings should also be tailored to the local context and be more in-depth. Importantly, program staff should ensure that all intended beneficiaries, especially women, are invited and able to participate in program trainings so that all members can benefit from the knowledge, awareness, and skill building gained at each training event. Programs should implement a more robust monitoring plan to ensure resources are adequately used and equitably distributed, and that all intended beneficiary groups benefit equitably. Finally, although PRAREV was designed to undertake a gender-sensitive approach, further refinement of this approach could likely improve program delivery and impact. A gender accommodative approach would have supported and empowered women from within the traditional gender roles that they feel more comfortable with to participate and upgrade in their respective fishing activities.

Farming for the future: Prioritization of climate-smart agriculture technologies in SAARC countries

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is pivotal in combating the impacts of climate change on global agriculture and food security. It has increasingly gained prominence as an adaptation strategy against the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture, particularly in South Asia. However, scaling up the adoption of CSA interventions becomes critical, due to predominantly small and marginal nature of landholdings in the region, various institutional and policy constraints, and trade regulations and barriers. Another significant challenge lies in categorizing and prioritizing the multitude of technologies considered to be climate smart. Therefore, this study attempts to explore the different CSA technologies within the socio-economic context of six South Asian countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, with the main objective of proioritization and scaling-up of these methods. The study begins by compiling an inventory of existing technologies and subsequently prioritizing them by using the World Bank (WB) CSA Technology Index. Secondly, the study tries to address the key challenges and propose policy measures to upscale the adoption of CSA technologies in these countries using participatory research conducted with the key stakeholders in these countries. The participatory research provided valuable insights, revealing critical policy and institutional barriers, and providing a basis for framing strategies and policy solutions to facilitate wider adoption of CSA technologies in the region.

MSMEs in the Food Environment in urban and peri-urban Ethiopia

In late 2023, a unique survey was fielded in Ethiopia to study micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) selling food directly to consumers in two locations in Ethiopia (a woreda of Addis Ababa, and Butajira). The survey was unique as it combines a listing exercise, which attempted to list all businesses selling food directly to customers within a specific area, and a business-oriented survey, which enumerated information about management characteristics, the use of healthy foods, nutritional awareness, and the constraints businesses might face in selling more healthy foods. We find that businesses rarely follow good business practices, they have poor access to capital, and supply challenges and variable quality are major constraints to expanding their businesses. Finally, we find many vendors are not aware of nutritional content of specific foods they might sell. From the business perspective, business trainings could help vendors become better businesses, but helping deal with supply challenges earlier in the value chain could also allow them to sell more, with consistently higher quality.

Understanding the organizational approaches of funders and project implementers to strengthen women’s empowerment through agricultural collectives

This paper reports on approaches for strengthening women’s empowerment that were implemented by project partners involved in the International Food Policy Research (IFPRI)-led Applying New Evidence for Women’s Empowerment (ANEW) project funded by the Walmart Foundation. The study explores the partner organizations’ websites and publications, project materials, and selected staff interviews to better understand how each envisions women’s empowerment and the pathways for supporting it. The four implementing project partners are Grameen Foundation, Professional Assistance for Development Action (PRADAN) in India, Root Capital in Mexico, and TechnoServe in Guatemala. Their programs and their organizational approaches vary in whether they primarily focus on women rather than more broadly targeting both women and men and their gender relationships. Some organizations are more “organic” in integrating attention to gender and empowerment into their programs, designing and implementing an approach on a case by case basis. Others are more intentional in establishing organization-wide policies, strategies, and monitoring systems. The organizations also differ in their positions on supporting “economic empowerment” and clear economic benefits such as prioritizing increased income or assets in contrast to those that also seek to actively change social norms and achieve other social dimensions of empowerment that encompass behaviors around decision-making, mobility, and self-confidence. Another variation is in the organizations’ attention to enterprise development and, consequently to entrepreneurship and upgrading, and what aspects of women's empowerment are most critical for achieving those goals. This paper offers implementers and their funders insight into organizational differences in approaches to women’s empowerment. The review demonstrates that both funders and implementers continue to focus on strengthening women’s economic empowerment by increasing women’s incomes and assets, often with good results. However, they often lack clear theories of change or explicit strategies to strengthen other dimensions of women’s empowerment. More nuanced, evidence-based theories of change and targeted actions could strengthen program design to expand and support women’s achievement of empowerment across all its dimensions.

Climate action and bioeconomy transition: Mainstreaming environmental sustainability in the Post-Malabo Agenda of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme

The concepts of the green economy, circular economy, blue economy, and bioeconomy started emerging in response to the multidimensional economic, socioecological, and climate change crises. These concepts are becoming popular in sustainability discussions in policy, scientific research, and business and are expected to promote sustainability through different pathways of transformation. Each of these frameworks offers a comprehensive package of solutions, yet all point toward renewable, bio-based processes and nature-based or nature-friendly solutions (Kirchherr, Reike, and Hekkert 2017; Geissdoerfer et al. 2017; D’Amato and Korhonen 2021). The bioeconomy, which is more focused on biological and nature-based/positive processes, is usually viewed as a more holistic concept that encompasses principles of the green economy, circular economy, and blue economy (Figure 12.1).

Adaptation actions to climate change in African agriculture: Effectiveness and challenges

Climate change poses a significant burden to African development and economic growth, impacting households at both national and regional levels. While accounting for only 3–4 percent of global emissions, Africa is most vulnerable to climate change due to low levels of socioeconomic growth (Kikstra et al. 2022). Africa’s vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by its reliance on rain-fed agriculture, environmental degradation, inadequate infrastructure, widespread poverty, and increased frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters. These factors make Africa highly susceptible to climate-related disruptions such as droughts and floods and can amplify the impact of climate-related disasters on communities, economies, and ecosystems (UNECA 2013; WMO 2020). Effective adaptation strategies and risk financing mechanisms are crucial for building regional adaptive capacity and resilience.

The impact of climate change on African economies and opportunities for agrifood system transformation

As in the rest of the world, the climate is changing in Africa, with data showing a slightly faster warming trend than the global average of around +0.2°C per decade for the 1991–2022 period. In Africa, the average rate of change of temperature was around +0.3°C per decade between 1991 and 2022, while it was estimated at +0.2°C per decade between 1961 and 1990. In addition, all six African subregions have experienced an increase in warming over the past 60 years compared with the period before 1960. Due to global warming, Africa is observing a change in precipitation patterns, a rise in sea level, and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, extreme heat, and cyclones (WMO 2023). For instance, the report on the State of the Climate in Africa in 2022 (WMO 2023) showed that precipitation anomalies were above the 1991–2020 average in northeastern Africa, large parts of West Africa, the eastern Sahel region, Sudan, and parts of South Africa. In addition, several regions experienced rainfall deficits including the western part of North Africa, the Horn of Africa, portions of southern Africa, and Madagascar. Sea level rise in Africa’s seven coastal regions has been similar to the global sea level average rate of increase of 3.4 millimeters (plus or minus 0.3 millimeters) per year between 1990 and 2020. In addition, extreme weather events are growing in frequency and intensity. With respect to extreme weather events including droughts, floods, extreme heat, and cyclones, data from the Emergency Event Database in Africa showed that 80 meteorological, hydrological, and climate-related hazards were reported in 2022 (WMO 2023).

The converging climate change and bioeconomy agendas as a pathway toward implementing the post-Malabo CAADP agenda

In June 2014, the African heads of state and government adopted the Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods. The declaration contains a set of concrete goals to be attained by 2025, known as the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which in turn functions as the main policy framework for the African Union (AU) in the agricultural sector. The declaration thus provided a new direction for a more focused approach to achieving the continent’s vision for agricultural growth and transformation (AUC 2014). According to the African Union Commission (AUC) and the African Union Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD), the CAADP was designed as a practical instrument and framework through which Africa was going to drive efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. The importance of evidence to inform policy design and implementation, inclusive participation of multiple stakeholder groups at all stages of the policy process, and mutual accountability for actions and results are at the heart of the CAADP. These principles help formulate high-quality policies and ensure that successful policies are scaled up while unsuccessful ones are adjusted. Since the adoption of the Malabo Declaration, 10 years have elapsed, and considerable progress toward achieving some of its targets is visible across the continent. With the lifespan of the Malabo Declaration coming to an end, the AU proactively initiated the design of a new 10-year strategy, covering the period from 2026 to 2035. As Africa has embarked on designing this successor strategy, it faces multiple complex challenges compounded by the climate crisis. With the opportune timing of this Annual Trends and Outlook Report, this chapter explores how the convergence of the climate change agenda and the transition to a bioeconomy will shape future strategic political decisions across the continent, effecting an equitable and sustainable transformation of agrifood systems. Thus, the bioeconomy can be a solution to future challenges resulting from climate change (for example, climate adaption) vis-à-vis the challenges of avoiding the unsustainable use of natural resources (through climate mitigation, land use change, and the sustainable use of inputs). Simultaneously, the bioeconomy will generate opportunities for new markets—including markets for bioproducts, bioenergy or food based on insects or waste, and carbon engineering (markets that are discussed in Featured Issue 1).

Climate risks and vulnerabilities in African agrifood systems

In an era when the impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly pronounced, understanding and mitigating climate risk is paramount, especially for regions highly vulnerable to environmental change. Africa, with its rich biodiversity and varied climates, stands on the front line, facing unique challenges posed by climate change and climate variability. The continent’s susceptibility around climate change is not just a matter of environmental concern but a multifaceted issue affecting socioeconomic development, agricultural sustainability, and the overall well-being of its inhabitants. The imperative to assess, comprehend, and adapt to these risks is more critical now than ever, necessitating a detailed analysis of various climate-related parameters and their long-term implications.

A nutrition-sensitive circular bioeconomy for food systems transformation in Africa

Africa’s commitment to creating a sustainable and self-sufficient economy for its rapidly growing population has led to programmatic actions aimed at meeting local food, energy, and material demands sustainably and without compromising planetary boundaries (Africa Business Page 2022; Agri SA 2023). The bioeconomy has become a primary focus of this transformative blueprint, generally positioned as a vehicle for generating and using bioresources in meeting local demands for abundance, sustainable goods, and services (Gatune, Ozor, and Oriama 2021; Malabo Montpellier Panel 2022). However, the implementation momentum of the bioeconomy is incumbent on a well-planned and objective-oriented policy framework that supports generation of scientific evidence and reasonable investment structures, among other requirements for implementation (East African Community 2022; Pachón et al. 2018).

Just energy transition: Challenges and low carbon pathways for Africa

Transitioning to renewable energy is a critical part of addressing climate change and ensuring sustainable development. However, if this transition does not consider the social, economic, and financial implications for African countries, it cannot be considered a “just” transition for Africa. At the social level, the transition to low-carbon pathways, such as renewable energy sources, will create new employment opportunities. However, poor countries and marginalized populations may face disproportionate challenges during this transition if they are excluded from decision-making processes or do not benefit from these new job prospects. It is therefore essential to ensure that low-carbon pathways help reduce social inequalities and improve livelihoods for people in these countries and communities. At the economic and financial levels, transitioning to low-carbon pathways will require significant funding to develop national or regional value chains, invest in research and development, and build capacity. International financial support will be crucial for developing countries, especially in Africa, to ensure a just transition.

Tracking key CAADP indicators and implementation processes [In the 2024 ATOR]

In this chapter we review Africa’s progress in CAADP process implementation and on the CAADP RF indicators to highlight areas of strong performance that need to be sustained or accelerated as well as areas of weak performance that require urgent attention to enable the continent to meet its Malabo Declaration agricultural transformation goals. The chapter examines progress on 27 of the 38 CAADP RF indicators for which cross-country data are available (Table 13.2). Details of the indicators and aggregate statistics are available in the data tables in Annexes 1–3 of this report. Progress on the RF indicators is discussed across different aggregated geographic and economic groupings of African countries by comparing trends in the RF indicators during the first five years after the adoption of CAADP (2003–2008) with later subperiods (2008–2014 and 2014–2023), with a particular focus on the Malabo Declaration period of 2014–2023.

Does nutrition-sensitive social protection build longer-term resilience? Experimental evidence from Bangladesh

Evidence shows that cash and in-kind transfer programs increase food security while interventions are ongoing, including during or immediately after shocks. But less is known about whether receipt of these programs can have protective effects for household food security against shocks that occur several years after interventions end. We study the effects of a transfer program implemented as a cluster-randomized control trial in rural Bangladesh from 2012-2014 – the Transfer Modality Research Initiative (TMRI) – on food security in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We assess TMRI’s impacts at three post-program time points: before the shock (2018), amidst the shock (2021), and after the immediate effects of the shock (2022). We find that TMRI showed protective effects on household food security during and after the pandemic, but program design features “mattered”; positive impacts were only seen in the treatment arm that combined cash transfers with nutrition behavior change communication (Cash+BCC). Other treatment arms – cash only, and food only – showed no significant sustained effects on our household food security measures after the intervention ended, nor did they show protective effects during the pandemic. A plausible mechanism is that investments made by Cash+BCC households in productive assets – specifically livestock – increased their pre-shock resilience capacity.

South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative: Abstract digest October 2024

In the fourth edition of the South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative’s Abstract Digest, we present global, regional, and country-level evidence on various aspects of nutrition. The global studies include a discussion on strategies to improve infant and child survival rates that are currently off track, a systematic review examining effects of small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements on maternal and infant outcomes, a scoping review to understand delivery platforms for reaching adolescents with nutrition interventions, a study assessing sugar-sweetened beverage consumption trends among children and adolescents across 185 countries, and a policy-oriented study shedding light on the cost to inaction in achieving nutrition targets. Other studies of interest include assessment of factors associated with adolescent motherhood and child undernutrition in Bangladesh, double and triple-burden of malnutrition among adolescents and children in India, and two sub-national level studies from India on diets and nutritional status of women of reproductive age, and women’s empowerment and child anthropometry. This issue also includes several studies on antenatal care, including its quality, utilization, and integration of other services to improve child growth, and two studies are focused on factors affecting dietary behaviors, and diet quality of women and children. Please scroll down to explore the abstracts of these studies. If you received this Abstract Digest via forwarding, we invite you to subscribe for future editions.

Toward integrated dam assessment: Evaluating multi-dimensional impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile is expected to influence many ecosystem services, such as flood regulation, hydro-electricity production, food supply, and habitat provision, among others. Understanding these impacts (positive and negative) requires a comprehensive evaluation framework. This study develops and applies an integrated simulation framework for assessing the impacts of the GERD on Sudan, focusing on the simultaneous economywide effects of riverine flood hazards, irrigation water supply, hydropower generation, and floodplain-dependent industries, namely traditional fired clay brick production. The simulation framework incorporates three models: a river infrastructure system model, a flood model, and a Computable General Equilibrium Model. Results indicate positive impacts for hydropower generation and flood control, marginal benefits for water supply to existing irrigation, and negative consequences for brick production and the construction sector. Assuming that the GERD starts its long-term operation in 2025, we find an overall positive economic impact on Sudan's Gross Domestic Product in 2025, with an increase of up to just over 0.1%, subject to river flow conditions. Recognizing the differences in impacts across sectors and income groups, the study emphasizes the need for interventions that ameliorate negative effects. While the study captures several impacts, other effects on the environment, recession agriculture, and soil fertility require further investigation. Still, our findings underscore the importance of adopting an integrated simulation approach to dam evaluation, acknowledging the interconnected nature of water and related sectors in national economies.

The adoption and impact of food safety measures on smallholder dairy farmers’ economic welfare: Evidence from the Indo-Gangetic plains of India.

This study examines the adoption of compliance with food safety measures (FSM) using cross-sectional data collected at the farm level in three key states of the Indo-Gangetic Plains, Bihar, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh in 2023. A Food Safety Index (FSI) was developed to assess the intensity of adoption of food safety practices. Determinants of compliance with practices were assessed using multiple linear regression and an ordered logistic model. Generalized propensity score matching was used to evaluate the heterogenous impact of the adoption of FSM on farm-level performance indicators. The findings indicate that farmers are embracing a moderate level (0.48–0.58) of the food safety index at the farm level. The various socioeconomic and demographic factors influence compliance with FSM which include education, income, marketing channel, training exposure, awareness level, and infrastructure. The impact assessment reveals the direct relationship between FSM compliance and performance indicators. However, a lower level of compliance may not yield significant improvements. The study suggests incentivization through pricing reforms, improving infrastructure, and strengthening formal marketing channels.

Varietal turnover in potato and its effect on yield: Evidence from household surveys in India

Potato remains a crucial crop for achieving India’s food security goals and generating income for small-scale farmers. But India, the largest potato producer after China, remains behind many of its peers in attaining high yield. A low varietal replacement rate could be one of the major reasons for low yield in India. This critical issue warrants investigation, yet empirical results remain limited in the Indian context. Drawing on data from a comprehensive field survey of 892 potato growing farmers conducted in 2018–19 across five major potato-producing states in India, we find the determinants of the average area-weighted age of potato varieties used, and their impact on potato yield. The instrumental variable regression analysis establishes a negative association between varietal age and yield of potato. It also underscores the importance of access to weather forecast and linkages with agricultural organizations to achieve higher yield. Furthermore, it shows that household size, links to political party, and information about new seeds from friends, progressive farmers and input dealers are associated with lower varietal age. These insights will be instrumental for policymakers and potato breeders in promoting sustainable agricultural practices and boosting food security in India amidst the impending demographic challenges.

Poultry value chain and cluster development in Papua New Guinea: Insights from a recent field study

Despite poultry being lauded as a relatively affordable source of protein and micronutrients in many lower-income countries, chicken meat is twice as expensive in PNG compared to nearby Southeast Asian countries. Recent rural household consumption data collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) suggests that an important share of households do not eat enough protein to meet healthy dietary guidelines (Schmidt et al., 2024). Poultry, along with fish and pork, are the three most important animal-source protein foods in the country, yet these products remain financially prohibitive to a large share of the population.

This paper explores the unique challenges and opportunities within PNG’s poultry sector using a "growth diagnostic" approach (pioneered by Rodrik, 2010). Through interviews with key stakeholders across the poultry value chain, we found that while high feed costs persist as a significant challenge, poultry farmers have yet to adopt additional cost-reduction strategies, such as establishing small-scale regional feed mills, utilizing local feed ingredients, and diversifying feed and input imports. An intriguing puzzle of PNG’s poultry sector is the limited number of small-scale producers successfully transitioning to medium-scale operations. This primarily stems from high transport costs and restricted access to input and sales markets. The challenges of marketing chicken in PNG have received less attention than production. Drawing on the experiences of successful models in other countries and considering the specific situation of PNG's poultry sector, fostering poultry production and processing clusters (e.g., in Lae suburban areas) emerges as a potential strategy to address production, transportation, and marketing constraints. By concentrating production, value chain clustering can enhance access to essential services (e.g. slaughtering and cold storage), improve market access, and reduce overall costs. While clustering holds promise for PNG’s poultry value chain, its success hinges upon joint action between the public and private sectors, as well as NGOs operating within the value chain.

PSNP and sustainable land management in Ethiopia: A formative qualitative investigation

The Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) is Ethiopia’s national safety net program, launched in 2005 and currently in its fifth phase. The objective of the PSNP is to protect households’ food consumption and assets, reduce their vulnerability to shocks, and address underlying causes of extreme poverty (MoA FSCD 2020). Households who have an adult available to work are required to take part in public works that focus on building infrastructure and improving the natural resource base (MoA FSCD 2020). As such, these projects are partially designed to contribute to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation and mitigation. However, there is limited evidence about how sustainable land management (SLM) activities are conducted under the PSNP on both publicly and privately operated lands, and how the uptake of these activities and their benefits differ by gender.

Modeling crop-livestock interactions in semi-subsistence economies

Climate and weather shocks pose significant threats to crop-livestock systems, leading to economic losses and humanitarian crises. Utilizing a modeling framework that innovatively integrates the crop and livestock systems, this study examines the interactions and dynamic adjustments within these systems following weather shocks, using Ethiopia as a case study. We also evaluate the effectiveness of various adaptation strategies in sustaining farm incomes, food security, and welfare. Results show unique effects on the crop and livestock sectors resulting from a joint shock on the two systems. While food crops experience a strong and immediate growth effect that fades quickly, the livestock sector faces the full impact of the shock a year later, with the effect persisting to some degree. We also find diverging economic and livestock system adjustment trajectories from the separate shocks to the crop and livestock systems. Further, the intervention options analyzed show contrasting impacts on various outcome indications, with only the resilient crop intervention causing sector-indifferent impacts. Our findings emphasize the importance of proactive measures to enhance the resilience of crop-livestock systems, with implications for policy and practice aimed at safeguarding food security and livelihoods in semi-subsistence economies.

Reconciling conservation and development requires enhanced integration and broader aims: A cross- continental assessment of landscape approaches

Expectations for agricultural landscapes in subtropical and tropical regions are high, aiming for conservation
and development amid climate change, unfair trade, poverty, and environmental degradation. Landscape ap-
proaches (LAs) are gaining momentum as means to reconcile expectations, although they face multiple chal-
lenges, including unclear distinctions among LAs and stakeholder involvement. We studied 380 LAs from
three continents via questionnaires with landscape managers (2012–2015 and 2021) and identified three LA
types through cluster analysis: an ‘‘integrated’’ type with longer-term, multisectoral goals involving various
stakeholders early in the design and two shorter-term types focused on sectoral priorities of preservation
or production. Better-performing LAs are associated with longevity, inclusivity, and diversified investments
across goals, notably those enabling social justice. International stakeholder analysis shows broad support
for LAs but identifies gaps between support and LAs’ needs. The growing interest in LAs is promising. Yet,
underpinning effective and lasting LAs that reconcile multiple expectations requires better support.

2022 Social Accounting Matrix for Ethiopia: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2022 Ethiopia Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

The agricultural transformation index

Agricultural transformation, in broad terms, is the process during which the agricultural sector develops from a low-productivity, subsistence-oriented sector to a modern, commercially oriented one. It typically involves adopting advanced technologies and more sustainable and efficient production practices, and results in higher agricultural productivity per worker, agricultural diversification into high-value crops, and rising rural incomes. Importantly, agricultural transformation is also seen as a catalyst for broader economic development and a structural shift towards industrialization in developing economies. Given the central role of agricultural transformation in driving such change, as well as its contribution to development objectives such as poverty reduction, improvements in diet quality, and environmental sustainability, it is useful to measure and monitor progress on agricultural transformation. This is the purpose of the Agricultural Transformation Index (ATI), a newly developed composite index constructed from four indicators of progress on agricultural transformation: staple crop productivity, crop diversification, agricultural labor productivity, and food system expansion. Together, these indicators, which are calculated from publicly available, global datasets, can be used to examine progress over time on global, regional, and national scales. In addition to being transparent and easy to interpret, the index can be updated annually as new data is released. As demonstrated in this study, the ATI produces a plausible ranking of countries and is highly correlated with indicators of overall economic wellbeing such as GDP per capita or household-specific welfare measures such as poverty or the prevalence of undernourishment. The ATI is not only useful for identifying countries in need of support from international development partners or tracking their progress on agricultural transformation but can also highlight specific areas of agricultural transformation where technical or investment support might be directed by governments or their partners.